moonslav59

The "known commodity" includes incredibly long slumps and good but diminished defensive skills. Yes, he's been over .800 in 3 of the last 6 seasons, but 2 of those seasons were below 260 PAs, and 3 of the last 4 seasons have been under .738. .738 is not terrible for CF, especially for a plus defender, but his O WAR (fWAR) was negative for those 3 years. His career OWAR is -6.2. I'm okay with not having a plus on offense at the CF and SS positions, but I'm also worried about JBJ's defense. His UZR/150 went up from last year, but he still didn't look like the "old JBJ" out there in CF. His CF UZR/150 and my observations show decline. 8.1 in 2016 3.5 in 2017 8.8 in 2018 (peak) -1.8 in 2019 5.5 in 2020 (small sample size) His DRS in those years? 14, 15, -1, -2, 5 I get the sentimentality of the re-sign, but no way do I pay him what some here want us to do.

Cora is.

Rehire the best manager we've ever had. Agreed.

Yes, and I have mentioned that, although I think he and Pillar are close, offensively. I see it this way: we can get a better defensive CF'er for way less money, especially if he end up getting what some here are saying he will or should get. The drop in offense is a maybe, since with JBJ, we don't know how long the slumps will be. Assume we can be sure JBJ gives us .740-.780 and the great defensive guys we sign for $2-4M a year gives us .650-.690. How much is that drop off worth? Our offense is not our weak point- JBJ or not. Take the money saved on JBJ, maybe $4-8M depending on how much JBJ gets and who se sign instead and either sign a RP'er at $4-8M a year or add that money to a starting pitcher signing and go from a $16M/yr SP'er to a $20-22M guy. To me, that upgrade outweighs the loss on offense in CF. Factor in better D in CF, and it looks like a clear choice, to me.

...and my eyeballs have seen decline, too.

It was a very short season. We all know JBJ's bat has its ups and its long downs. Expecting him to continue the offense he had over his 191 ABs, this season, is not something I would do. Can we hope he does? Sure. Is it possible? Sure. s it likely? I think not. The guy was under .738 for three full seasons before this short one. Three prime seasons! "Recency" does play a role, but not that big of one. 2017 to 2019 (1643 PAs) .234/.318/.409/.727 2020 (just 217 PAs) .283/.364/.450/.814 Yes, solid numbers over 55 games, but we've seen that before. It's the other 100 games we have fretted and argued over for too many years.

The comp with Beni is not meaningful, to me. Yes, JBJ is still a quality defender, but there are several that are equal and better that can be had for less than $6-8M/yr. His bat is not a plus.

The usual argument is "I know greatness when I see it," despite only watching others only a handful of times each.

I had a feeling I'd hear from you.

One of the greatest of the greats! Bob Gibson Dies at Age 84

My projected Sox 40 Man Roster for Opening Day 2021: 60 Day IL: Pedroia, Sale, ERod 26 Man: SP1 Eovaldi SP2 ___FA___ SP3 Perez SP4 ___FA___ SP5-6 Houck/Pivetta RP1 ___FA___ RP2 Barnes RP3 ___FA___ RP4 D Hern RP5 Taylor RP6 Brasier RP7 Valdez C Vazquez C Plawecki 1B Dalbec 1B-2B Chavis 2B Arroyo 3B Devers SS Bogaerts UT Munoz LF Benintendi CF ___FA___ RF Verdugo OF(1B/2B?) ___FA___ DH Martinez 14 Others in minors Weber Brewer Mazza 1 from Covey, Walden, Godley orTapia Chatham Arauz Grullon (Rule 5 added) Mata Groome Potts Jeisson Rosario Connor Seabold Connor Wong 1 from Eduard Bazardo, Kutter Crawford, Chad De La Guerra, Roniel Raudes, Zach Schellinger, Alex Scherff or Jeremy Rivera Trade, Non Tender or DFA: Lin (out of options) Peraza Hart Brice Springs Hall Stock Triggs Kickham Leyer Wilson Aybar Puello

Is there anybody on this list anyone feels a strong attachment to? Lin (out of options) Peraza Hart Brice Springs Hall Stock Triggs Kickham Leyer Wilson Aybar Puello

I can name 18-20 guys I wouldn't even blink, if we traded for scraps or DFA'd. I cannot remember the last time I have seen such a weak bottom 40 man roster on a Sox team. We could add all those 13 and sign 5 FAs, and we wouldn't have to DFA a single highly promising player. Peraza (non tender?) Brice Springs Hall Stock Triggs Kickham Walden Lin Chatham Hart Wilson Aybar Covey Godley Puello Grullon? Tapia? Plus, there's Pedey (60 day IL all year?), can trade Brasier, Brewer, Chavis, Barnes, Eovaldi, Beni... IMO, no problem, this winter.

It's not the bible, butb when DRS and UZR/150 bot point to JBJ not being a top 10 defensive CF'er during a pretty long sample size of the down slope of his prime years, it leads me to think there are some equal or better CF'ers in MLB, right now. Several cost way less, although their offense has been even worse than JBJ's ups and long downs. I love defense. I love watching great defense more than great offense. JBJ has been my favorite Sox player since before he was even a starter. Defense up the middle is not over rated in my book. That being said, I have seen other CF'ers that look as good or better than JBJ is, right now in his career. The numbers back up my observations, for the most part, but they are not perfect indicators of value. Now, to JBJ's offense. Just as I defended JBJ's offense during slumps, I'm not fooled into thinking he has suddenly become a consistently very good hitter due to this shortened system. Overall, he'snot very good, and he's not very bad, except in short sample sizes focusing ob his hot and cold streaks. From 2018-2020, his OPS is about .742. Would I bet on the over on .742 the next two to three years? No. I wouldn't feel comfortable betting the under, but if I had to choose, I would. BTW, .742 ranks 21st out of 32 CF'ers with 900+ PAs. It's very close to: .755 Cain .730 A Jones .727 Pillar It also makes me wonder about guys like these, who are worse hitters but by how much? And, does their apparent better defense cancel out JBJ's better offense? Then, what about their contract cost and how the "saved money" could be spent elsewhere to offset any possible loss in CF by signing or trading for... .688 Inciarte .682 Margot .669 Kiermaier or even a guy like Marisnik. I'm fine with bringing JBJ back. He'd still be my favorite Sox player, but the more we spend on CF, the less we have for other more pressing needs.

It does seem that way. Even the Manny deal, which has to viewed as a win, ended pretty badly. (I know, that was over a decade ago.) Here are our biggest contracts from 2001> $217/7 Price $160/8 Manny $154/7 AGon $145/5 Sale $142/7 Crawford $120/8 Bogaerts (opt out) $110/8 Pedroia $110/5 JD Martinez $95M/5 Sandoval $88M/4 H Ramirez $83M/5 Lackey $82M/4 Porcello $73M/7 R Castillo $70M/5 JD Drew $68M/4 Eovaldi $68M/4 Beckett $52M/4 Ortiz $52M/6 Dice-K $42M/4 Kimbrel 2007> $41M/4 Youkilis $39M/3 Victorino $38M/3 Lowell $36M/4 Lugo $32M/2 Napoli $30M/3 Beckett $30M/4 Buchholz $30M/5 Lester $29M/2 Peavy $27M/1 Mookie $27M/2 Dempster (retired after 1) $20M/1 Betts $18M/2 Uehara (I might have missed a couple.)

I'd say, no. If he ends up doing well, it's a good "problem" to have. I'd hold some money in reserve for the summer, and give Arroyo, Munoz, Chavis, Arauz and Chatham a shot at proving they can be a net plus at 2B. If not, and we're in the race, then we trade for a 2Bman. Or, we sign a 2B/4th OF/CF type player for not too much dough.

18.2 H Bader 15.8 K Kiermaier (Trade?) 14.5 B Buxton 10.9 B Hamilton 10.6 L Cain 7.4 J Dyson 6.0 L Martin 4.7 M Margot 4.2 E Inciarte 3.9 JBJ 2.8 R Laureano 2.7 J Marisnik 2.6 S Deshields 2.1 M Taylor 19. G Springer 0.0 DRS /Innings 41/2401 L Cain 36/2142 Kiermaier 23/1842 Bader 23/1237 Buxton 20/2159 Hamilton 15. 8/1462 Springer 19. 2/2855 JBJ

For 2 years? I predict he gets $12M/2, but I would offer $8M/2 or $5M/1. If the market for a guy like Pillar is $8M/2, I might go $9-11M/2 for JBJ. $7.5M x 2 for someone who may very well be no help on offense and may also show age-related decline on defense is not what I think we need. I'd rather spend more on pitching and cheaper but better or equal CF defense. I do like the idea of a 1 or 2 year deal for CF.

He won't even get $8M x 2 or $7M x 3.

That was basically my point.

Honestly, what Beni makes does not affect what I think JBJ should make. Beni was signed to avoid arbs after a good year. That has nothing to do with JBJ. JBJ is getting older, and though his defensive metrics improved, this year, he is not as good as he used to be on D and is getting older. "Finally improved his hitting" is not a sure bet. We only played 60 games, and he is famous for having long extended slumps. He has not proven he can be a consistently good hitter, to me. I'd offer him $8M/2 or sign someone like Pillar or a very good defensive CF'er with a weak bat, so we can save money and get better pitching (and defense).

That, too.

Exactly, and is he drawing any fans?

Here are some big contract we could possibly take on in trade as a way to acquire another player or prospect or to offset some salary we may be trying to dump: Player Owed (Lux Tax) Team BAL SP Alex Cobb $15M/1 (14.25M/yr) TOR SP Hyun-Jin Ryu $60M/3 (20/yr) CF Randal Grichuk $31M/3 (10.4/yr) TBR CF Kiermaier $23.8M/2 (8.9/yr) C M Zunio $7M/1 (6.0/yr) LAA 1B Albert Pujols $30M/1 (24/yr) OF Justin Upton $52M/2 (21.2/yr) SEA SP Yusei Kikuchi $31M/2 (14/yr) TEX 2B Rougned Odor $24.7M/2 (8.25) NYM 2B Robinson Cano $72M/3 (24/yr) RP Jeury’s Familia $11.7M/1 (10/yr) ATL RP Will Smith $27M/2 (13.3) CF Ender Inciarte $9.7M/1 (6.1) PHI LF Andrew McCutchen $23M/1 (16.7/yr) Cubs RP Yu Darvish $59M/3 (21/yr) RF Jason Heyward $65M/3 (23/yr) RP Craig Kimbrel $16M/1 (14.3/yr) CIN 1B Joey Votto $75M/3 (22.5/yr) RF N. Castellanos $48M/3 (16/yr) 2B M Moustakas $52M/3 (16/yr) SP Raisel Iglesias $9.1M/1 (8/yr) SP Sonny Gray $21.8M/2 (10.9) MIL CF Lorenzo Cain $35M/2 (16/yr) RF Avisail Garcia $12.8M/1 (10/yr) PIT Gregory Polanco $11.6M/1 (7/yr) AZ SP M Bumgarner $79M/4 (17/yr) LF David Peralta $15M/2 (7.3/yr) RF Kole Calhoun $10M/1 (8/yr) COL CF/1B Ian Desmond $10M/1 (14/yr) SDP RF Wil Myers $46M/2 (13.8/yr) 1B Eric Hosmer $68M/4 (18/yr) SFG SP Johnny Cueto $26M/1 (21.7) 1B Brandon Belt $17.2M/1 (14.5) 3B Evan Longoria $43M/2 (11.2) LAD CF AJ POllock $31.5M/2 (12.0) RP Joe Kelly $8.8M/1 (8.3)

...and many felt Ben would never trade prospects.