moonslav59

If we non tender him it's because his 2021 health outlook (last year of control) is scary. It would be scary to NY, too.

So, their over 100, now! WOW!

Okay, $38M to spend- maybe $58M, if Henry allows us to go over the first limit by $19.9M- doubtful, but possible, especially if we are in the race in July and need a couple expensive pieces. It might be a tough pill to swallow trading some big contracts and paying part of the deal, like with Price, but maybe a deal like last winter's suggested Price for Myers type deal might work. Eovaldi for Odor plus a cheap but decent player would cost the Rangers $5M more but save us $9M on the tax budget. (Just an example of the type of move that may be sought.) Here's some possible budget cutting choices: Non tender ... $8.5-$10.5M ERod $3-3.5M Peraza $1M Godley $1M Brasier $1M Covey (I think we keep $4M Barnes, $1.5M Plawecki & $1M Pivetta) Letting some of all go could "save" $10-17M, but then we have more slots to fill.) Sale $25M will not be traded, at least until he shows he's back. JD $22M may be dealt in the summer, if we are out of it, but it's doubtful we trade him this winter, unless we pay some or take back salary. Beni $5M could be traded, but his stock is low. Vaz $4.4M could be dealt, but adequately filling a catcher hole usually costs more than that in money or asset value. My guess at the top trade probabilities are: 1. Barnes 2. Eovaldi 3. Beni 4. JD 5. Vaz (We could sign ERod & trade him. If we can sign and get something for Brasier, Peraza, Godley, Covey or Brice, sure.) I wouldn't be surprised if we trade none of these guys, but I think we will. Bogey $20M, Pedey $14M or Perez $6,3M will not be dealt, IMO. $1M Brice

Updated

Agreed. When you see the money Oprah rakes in, it's hard to single out sports stars for making too much. It is what it is.

Done.

Pillar may come at half the cost and maybe 1 yr vs 2 yrs.

Isn't that something else TB has been known for for years? Getting marginal players to have a career year- sometimes 2-3 with them, then bye-bye.

I do, too, but he is over-blowing the loss of velo point. I've brought this up several times, but he keeps making the same misleading point. Yes, his velo is down, slightly from 2015 and 2017, and maybe a little more than slightly from 2018, but it is nearly identical to 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2016- all pretty amazing years. See for yourself: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-sale/10603/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2012&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax= He's already proven he can pitch well with 1-2 less MPH on his fastball. His highest Velo year was 2018, but even then, he had several games at or below his 2019 numbers. His overall average dipped from about 95 mph to 94 mph, and we're acting like it's the end of the world.

I never said it did. My point was about us having a strong "will" to spend and spend like hardly anyone else.

I guess the word "will" is subjective. They spend a lot. Yes, they make a lot and "could" spend more with "more will," but they clearly have the will to spend a heck of a lot of money.

Okay, I see where I messed up. Thanks. So we have about $50M to spend, not $66M. If we decide to go $19.9M over, we can spend about $70M.

Is this on Netflix, prime, ???

Excellent post, cp.

We've been one of the biggest spending teams in MLB the last 5, 10 or 20 years. We've led the league in spending several times in the past 5-7 years. The will and the spending have both been present. We reset the tax, this year. It's not an indication we are becoming the Pirates. We've reset before and went right back to heavy spending. My guess is we will stay near the tax line in 2021 and go over in 2022. The will is there. It's just not "unlimited."

I counted Vaz, Beni & Perez. You are right on missing the pre-arb guys making min salary. There might be 10 of them, before any signings. That leaves about $55-60M to spend, and everyone we sign also subtracts about $800K for the guy who no longer makes the 26 man roster.

I didn't say it was the first and only year of the rebuild. I said it was year 1 after you called 2021 year 1.

Come on. We traded Betts. You can't rebuild anymore than that. This was year 1. We also dumped Moreland, Pillar, Workman & Hembree.

According to cots and AVV numbers: $millions 25 Sale 22 JD 20 Bogey 17 Eovaldi 16 Price 14 Pedey 6.3 Perez (opt accepted) 5.0 Beni 4.4 Vaz [130 Guaranteed Total] 15 Player Benefits 2.3 minor league 40 man roster [147M Running Total] It's all about the arbs and tender vs non tenders: ARB Player ($2020 unadjusted salary) Arb year/Total Arbs ERod ($8.3M) 4/4 (injury- non tender?) Barnes ($3.1) 3/3 (trade?) Peraza ($2.9) 3/4 (non tender?) Godley (min) 2/3 (non tender?) Devers (692K) 1/3 Plawecki (900K) 3/4 Pivetta (600K) 1/3 Brasier (584K) 1/3 Covey (700K) 1/3 (non tender?) Brice (573K) 1/3 (non tender?) (All others are pre-arb) The ERod case is the hardest to call. If he goes to arb, he may make $6-9M- I'm no expert on this. Devers has his first arb, and year one arbs are usually not that much- maybe $5-8M? Barnes may be trades, but it's his last arb, so he may make $4-6M? Plawecki had a good (short) year as a back-up. It's year 3 arb but not his last: $1.2-2M? Brasier's first arb: $1-1.5M? Pivetta's first arb: $1-1.5M? With ERod, I'm guessing $20-25M. Without ERod: $12-18M +$8M for the 9-10 ML players that fill out the roster, but don't forget, with every FA we sign, we also subtract one player making about $800K. If we sign 9 FAs, we can subtract the $8M I added here. $155M + 22M= $177M w ERod $155M + 15M= $170M w/o ERod Subtract from $210M Luxury Tax Limit and we have $33-40M to spend.

The bottom line with cots is $68M to spend. ($88M, if we go over by $19.9M)

Cots has us at $68M under the limit, including the $15M player benefit payment. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8--xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/edit#gid=1520401900 I trust cots.

I kinda look at most recent year, assuming no injury or short season as being a little less than equal to the most recent 3 year average, but I'm open to viewing outlier seasons as factors. Just my general outlook. (I don't count 2020's season as the "most recent year," since it was only 40% of a season.

I don't live in New England anymore, so I'm not hearing the chatter. I don't see many posters, here, drooling over Beni. There was a time many were very high on him. Mookie and JBJ were quite a pair in the spacious CF-RF of Fenway...maybe even better than Lynn - Evans.

Wouldn't he say that just to add another team to drive up the price?

Yes, Danny cater was second at .290. What's interesting is the fact that 5 NL players hit over .301 and 11 hit over .290. 1970 was when I first started following the Sox. Yaz was the man!