moonslav59

Isn't 28.3 still tops on the Sox?

The Rays seem to know things like this, so good news, but harmony will show us his ZIPS projection, so we are doomed.

Again, I said we could keep Arroyo on the 26 man roster along with S-G. I think you rely too much on ZIPS, but at least you are consistent. It's not like S-G is old, and he's not too far removed from some very decent years.

While I respect your impartiality and consistency, I'm talking about S-G replacing Arroyo as the starting 2Bman, if EHern is moved to CF. Arroyo's numbers are very close to S-G's over the past 3-4 years. BWAR has G-S at +0.9 from 2018-2020 and Arroyo at +0.2. At worst, S-G takes over for Chavis as the 26th man, and we keep Arroyo and S-G on the 26 man roster, making it easier for EHern to play more in CF. S-G might have also been used as a PR.

True, but the initial buzz was we'd add a CF'er, and options are running thin. Only Pillar and Marisnick seem possible, unless we make a trade. I'm not sure anyone would trade a CF'er for Beni or Arroyo.

On paper, the best line-up we can put on the filed is Beni in LF, Verdugo in CF, Renfroe in RF and EHern at 2B. Currently, we have no 4th OF'er projected for the 26 man roster, except players already in the line-up at other positions: EHern at 2B, JD at DH and maybe Chavis at 1B/2B can play LF. Starting EHern in CF and Arroyo or Chavis at 2B allows for Renfroe or Beni to PH (for Arroyo or Chavis?) or come in the game after a pitcher change, as EHern could then be moved to 2B. The biggest plus, IMO, is on defense. Already, our defense looks somewhere between pretty bad to horrific. We really have no plus defender anywhere, except for Verdugo, if EHern plays 2B. By moving EHern to CF, we improve the defense at 4 positions with one move! Arroyo> EHern at 2B (barely) Renfroe/Beni> just Beni in LF EHern > Verdugo in CF Verdugo> Renfroe in RF On offense, it comes down to this comp: Beni (.691) vs LHP or Chavis (.740) or Arroyo (.597) Renfroe (.717) vs RHPs vs Arroyo (.678) or Chavis (.699) One could argue, the offense improves by platooning Beni-Renfore in LF and not playing them both FT. Chavis and Arroyo might be better on offense. (Note how Chavis hits RHPs better than LHPs.) Signing Marisnick won't improve the offense vs any pitcher. .638 vs RHP/ .711 vs LHP but his defense would help, especially as a late inning defensive replacement and being okay vs LHPs. Signing Pillar would likely keep EHern at 2B near FT, despite the bad splits vs RHPs. .678 vs RHP .784 vs LHP In theory, we should be looking for a great glove in CF who hits RHPs well, or just go with EHern in CF and let Arroyo and Chavis fight over 2B (Munoz/Arauz?) If they suck, make an in season trade for a 2Bman of CF'er.

It's like it was me talking.

I think I'd rather have him that Christian Arroyo or Chavis, so I'd have even signed him to a ML deal at a rock bottom, low cost, of course.

That was kind of my point. We should improve, while many AL teams should expect decline or staying the same from their rotations. No Sox starter is significantly past prime to the point where a near career season is unthinkable. Only the health issues make 4 of our top 7 starters big question marks. Is it likely all stay healthy or return to form at the same time? No, of course not, but our #5-#7 starters, of which you keep leaving Houck out of the picture, can fill in nicely, when needed. The three of them could, all together, realistically eat over 450 innings. If they do, we probably won't be making the playoffs, but there is a chance they all do well enough to keep our hopes alive. Then, there is the wildcard: Whitlock. I'm not going to get into Seabold and Mata, just yet.

Strange-Gordon signed a minor league deal, recently. I'd have signed him.

My choice is E-HERN!

Nobody is talking about Ole Jed.

If we want to keep some budget space for the deadline, he might be the best option. If we float EHern between 2B and CF, we'd basically be deciding who to play: Marisnick or Arroyo/Chavis. Or, if we need offense, we go with Verdugo in CF, Renfroe in RF and Beni in LF, regardless of what handed pitcher is in the game. I could see us starting many games like that, and bringing in Marisnick for late inning defense.

Agreed, but I still think EHern is our best option in CF. The problem is, are there any 2Bmen left out there?

Agreed. I will say that Renfroe's numbers vs RHPs are not horrific. The .216 BA is, but he still hits a lot of HRs and has a slg% of .449 and an OPS of .717. His 162 game averages? 47 HRs vs LHPs 36 HRs vs RHPs In 2019, it was 53 v L and 39 HRs v R.

Apparently, that's what many owners want- deflated salaries. I hope it goes away and is replaced by a floor limit. Teams should be forced to spend a certain amount on player salary.

Maybe teams will try to reset after year 2, to avoid year 3's. If that's the case, and we go over in year 2022, then maybe 2024 is a reset year. BTW, the Yanks are favorites to make the WS, and they are resetting, this year, so a reset year need not be a rebuilding year.

Renfroe averages 40 HRs and 72 XBHs per 660 PAs. He has 41 HRs in his last 633 PAs. Maybe Fenway turns him into a monster. (In 11 PAs at Fenway, he has a 1.455 OPS. TINY SAMPLE SIZE ALERT!)

It's not about waiting until 2024. The plan could mean we win or are highly competitive by 2023 and maybe even 2022, but seriously. do you think we should have a better chance of winning in 2021 or 2024 or 2025? The plan should be to continually improve over 2021 and sustain a better team than the 2021 one in 2024 and well beyond. That's why not going over the tax line, now, can help 3 or 4 years down the line. It also lessens the tax hit each year along the way as our bracket is pushed back 1 more year. I'm not saying we have to stay under in 2021, but there is a good reason to do so.

I agree, the bottom of our roster is full of players I would not miss, if they were traded, demoted or DFA'd. I'd like to keep Whitlock for the future, but if he looks awful, this year, we may decide against hope and prayers and keep someone useful, now. I only mentioned Andriese because he is out of options, not because I think he is our #8 pen guy. He may be better than Taylor, which would place him in the 5 slot: Ottavino Barnes DHern Brasier _____

So, basically Archer & Wacha replacing Snell, Morton, Chirinos & Beeks. Wonderful!

Not much else to talk about, at the moment.

My point was about making room for the Japanese pitcher at #13 NOT for Mazza & Co. 1. ERod 2. Eovaldi 3. Richards 4. Perez 5. Pivetta 6. Ottavino 7. Barnes 8. Brasier 9. DHern 10. Taylor 11. Andriese (no options) 12. Whitlock (rule 5) 13. Brice or Sawamura We could have Taylor start in AAA, but Taylor v Brice is different than Mazza v Brice.

No Morton, either. And Chirinos is out all year.

Having 3 guys at the end of our pen that are out of options (Andriese & Brice) or rule 5 (Whitlock) force other- maybe better- pitchers from being on the 26 man roster, but as we all know, we'll likely have more than just Sale on the IL to start the season. We may also want to send Houck down for a few weeks to limit his IP and gain an extra year of team control. We may end up sending Whitlock back or trading him, but he seems to be worth keeping around. I'm just no big fan of Brice, but yes, keeping as many options in the system makes the most sense, so he'll likely start the season on the 26 or the IL.