moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Yes, by April some of these players should be fine, while others may not be.
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+ Marwin What else?
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I must have missed that report. Thanks. So, maybe Houck, Brewer, Taylor or Valdez for Sawamura. Who for Cordero? Wilson is the only true OF'er on the 40 man roster scheduled to start in the minors. We could activate Duran or Munoz (Gettys/Puello) or just call up Arauz and use Chavis, Marwin or EHern in the OF.
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8th & 9th inning games by Kimbrel... IP/ER 2016: 1.1/1 (BS in 9th) 1.1/0 1.1/0 2017: 1.2/0 1.1/0 1.1/1 (S) 1.1/0 1.1/1 (BS) 2018: 1.1/0 (W) 1.1/0 1.1/2 (BS) 8th only: 2016: 0.2/0 1.0/1 (no 9th IP) 2017: 0.2/0 (H) 2018: 0.2/2 (BS) no ninth inning pitched 1.0/0
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Word is he has been working out in Japan, but yes, he is iffy. Any specifics on Cordero's COVID list placement and his likely return date?
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The other years' sample sizes were small, as well.
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K% to BB% is a good "new tool." Here are the best RP'ers, since 2001 (with 150+ IP): 35 Josh Hader 31 Kimbrel 31 E Diaz 31 Jansen 30 Chapman 29 Uehara 28 Betances 28 Greene 26 Yates, A Miller & Giles 25 Doolittle & Wagner 24 WSmith, Osuna, L Hendricks & May 23 Knebel, Pagan & Smoltz 22 Robertson, Hand, FVazquez, Lugo, Romo, Papelbon, Neris & Nen K/BB Leaders 7.9 Koji 6.7 CMartin 6.3 osuna 5.8 Doolittle 5.7 CGreene 5.6 Smoltz & jansen 5.5 Rivera 5.3 Scribner 5.2 Y Garcia & Hendricks
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WHIP is a stat I used to use a lot, especially for RP'ers, but it falling out of favor by almost everyone. OPS against weights walks (OBP) and what sort of hits were allowed (SLG). I've never been a big fan of FIP or xFIP, since many pitchers with low K rates have proven they can be very effective over a long time. Even K/9 and B/9 are being replaced by K% and BB%, which makes a ton of sense. A pitcher who faces 6 batters per inning and K's 2 guys while allowing 3 men on base has an 18 K/9 rate and a 33% K%. Another pitcher who faces just 4 batters per inning and K's 2 guys while allowing 1 base runner also has a K/9 rate of 18, but his K% is 50%. While they both K the same amount per inning, the second pitcher is a much better K machine (and pitcher).
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None in the top 30 hurts, but two in the top 53 is better than the expected 2 in the top 60 as the league average projects. Who has the best chance at breaking the top 100 by mid season? Mata?
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I sort of expected us to be between 16-19. Maybe after the PTBNL's we might move up a slot or two. The draft might move us up another 2-5 slots, so maybe we'll be at #15 by mid season.
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My Top 30 Sox Prospects Ranking: 1. Casas 2. Downs 3. Mata 4. Dalbec 5. Houck 6. Jimenez 7. Song 8. Duran 9. Seabold 10. Ward 11. Rosario 12. Potts 13. Hernandez 14. A Ramirez 15. Bello 16. German 17. Whitlock 18. Wong 19. Groome 20. Yorke 21. Lugo 22. Jordan 23. Bonaci 24. C Murphy 25. Arauz 26. Bazardo 27. Wallace 28. Zeferjahn 29. E Lopez 30. Winckowski
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My projected opening day 26 man roster: (Sale on 60 day IL) 13 Pitchers: ERod, Eovaldi. Richards, Perez, Pivetta Ottavino, Barnes, D Hern, Brasier, Sawamura, Andriese, Brice, Whitlock Vaz, Plawecki Dalbec, Chavis Hernandez, Arroyo Bogey Devers Renfroe Cordero, Marwin G Verdugo JD M Likely, significant call-ups: P: Houck, Taylor, Brewer, Bazardo, Seabold, Mata, Valdez, Schreiber, Weber, Gossett Hermann Ockimey, Downs, Arauz, Munoz Duran, Gettys, Puello, Wilson
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ESPN's Kiley McDaniel released his Top 100 Prospects list this week with two Red Sox making the list - Jeter Downs at 41 and Triston Casas at 52. (Eric Longenhagen also put out his Top 100 for Fangraphs, and while he had the same two in his ranking, he ranked them back-to-back at 52 and 53.) He ranked the Red Sox farm system 21st in baseball.
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Kimbrel ERA/OPS against 2016: 3.00/.757 8th inning 3.38/.511 9th 2017: 0.00/.282 8th inning 1.59/.466 9th inning 2018: 5.40/1.067 8th 2.62/.511 9th
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Who should the Sox have play CF on opening day?
moonslav59 replied to mvp 78's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The "with cash" part makes it a tough comp. Maybe the Sox did not want to include cash. Do you think Pillar had more value than JBJ, if we paid enough cash to even out the cost to the other team? Now, we only got Jacob Wallace for Pillar, but you get my point, right? -
In some ways, they have more questions than ours has, but they also have more options, especially young ones.
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Who should the Sox have play CF on opening day?
moonslav59 replied to mvp 78's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Moreland was pretty hot, last year, when we traded him, but JBJ was doing well, too. I think JBJ had more value, especially if we made up the difference in sending some cash with him. I think JBJ will get more than Moreland got, this winter, too. -
I'd put no payroll floor above the lux tax, maybe even higher. If I was a Pirates fan, I'd put it #1. 1. Black out rules 2. No payroll floor 3. Service time 4. Low pay for bottom of 26 and 40 man roster players 5. Slow play 6. No DH in NL 7. No robo umps 8. Lux tax
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Who should the Sox have play CF on opening day?
moonslav59 replied to mvp 78's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We got Potts and Rosario for Moreland. Pivetta and Seabold for Workman and Hembree. You'd think JBJ plus a lil cash might have gotten us something in between those packages. -
Only "better" than a rotation that is only "better" than an "expansion team's rotation."
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Papelbon by IP- career (some not with the Sox) 1.61 Extra innings (.525) 67 IP 2.26 8th inning (.564 OPS against) 52 IP 2.50 9th inning (.589) 584 IP) All, spectacular numbers. I do think some pitchers have a comfort level that greatly affects their performance when taken out of it. Other hardly ever get a chance to try the 9th inning closer role. Maybe there were way more Koji's out there than anyone knew or will ever know they had. No other inning had a sample size above 5.
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If you had to guess, how many starts will our top 6 starters get combined? 25 ERod 25 Perez 20 Eovaldi 20 Richards 18 Houck 12 Sale That's 120. Are you thinking 100? 90? Last year, these guys started 26 games for us, and 12 were from Perez. Are we "better" or "way better" than 2020? Be honest. Even 90 starts from these guys would make us way better.
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Better depth and better top 5-6, too. BY FAR! Yes, I get that we were the worst, so it's easy to improve, but just saying we are "better" as Jax said, does not tell the full story. Even if ERod gives us only 100 IP at 80% of his norm, Eovalid 80, Richards 70, Sale 60, Perez 140, Houck 130 and Pivetta 130, we should still be way better. I also have more faith in Andriese, Whitlock, Seabold, Mata and others than I ever had in Mazza, Weber, Godley and the scrubs that came after them.
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Who should the Sox have play CF on opening day?
moonslav59 replied to mvp 78's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
If you count each pitching slot on the roster as a separate position one would expect about an even number of pitchers and non-pitchers being traded at any given time, since about half of everyon'es 26 man roster are pitchers. Does anyone have a breakdown of the percent traded for each group? (I would expect more than 50% of players traded were pitchers, but maybe not by a lot.) -
If you go by GS'd, 12 starts was 1/5 of 60 games. Here is how you could break up our rotation for 2020 by 12 starts each: 12 Perez (the "ace" by default) 9 Eovaldi (could have been called "the ace.") + 3 Houck 7 Godley + 5 Weber 6 Mazza + 4 Brewer + 2 Pivetta 5 Brewer+ 3 Hart, 2 Kickham, 2 Triggs, 1 Brasier, 1 Brice, 1 Osich, 1 Hall, 1 Lever 2019's 34 ERod 32 Porcello 25 Sale + 6 Cahsner 22 Price + 8 Velazquez 12 Eovaldi +7 Johnson, 5 Chacin, 3 Weber, 3 Lakins and 5 from scrubs
