moonslav59

Yes, so if Del Casttillo does not project to be a catcher, is he monster enough to draft so high?

YES! I also like the idea of starting with 13/13 and calling up a pitcher when needed. So, how does the C-19 list work? Is it like the IL but with no set dates on returns?

Paxton got $8.5M with a chance to make $10M, so he must be worth something, despite the poor 2020 season. Happ signed for $8M. Tanaka would have gotten significantly more than Kluber. Ottavino might not be worth his contract, as the Yanks had to give up a prospect to shed his deal, but he'd have signed a decent contract, had he been a FA. To act like the Yanks lost very little is neglecting clear evidence to the contrary. GMs, including Cashman do not place value based on just the most recent 60 game sample size. Plus,if they did, Kluber, Sevy and Taillon would be worth zero.

No, you shouldn't draft by position, but the player's defense (and athleticism) is part of the package being evaluated, unless you are a pitcher. Big lug players, not that Del Castillo is, have to be thought of as future 1Bmen or DHs, which are positions of diminished value, since they are easier to find or acquire. If this kid can catch, it helps his value immensely.

If he were still a Yank, you'd be pointing to his career or 2018-2019 numbers.

I don't disagree, but saying "more likely" is a step back from the way you have been talking with near complete certainty. I get it. It's Spring. We are days from opening day. Juices are flowing, and optimism often sounds like certainty. You do have a bunch of young & promising starters. One or two will likely do well. You may have to go through one or two to get to the one(s) that contribute, and that may set you back a bit, early on, but I still project you guys win the division. I do think the Jays got better and will give you a run. The Rays look worse on paper, but we've said that too many times and been surprised over and over to count them out so easily. The Sox started from a rock bottom spot, but they got much better, whether you believe it or not. The O's suck as they have for a long time. All-in-all, you will have a tougher AL East schedule this year, than last. I totally disagree with your take on the division getting worse, and the term "decidedly" was clearly hyperbole or you being grossly uninformed.

I was thinking that as I wrote that post, although Houck and Seabold are promising and Marwin, Chavis, Arroyo and Plawecki are not bad first tier subs.

There's even a significant chance neither do. (I wish they were on the Sox roster, though.)

The Yankees have been the IL Poster Boys the last two years. I don't think any other team has more players with serious injury histories, especially recently, than the Yanks. Magically, that is all going to go away, this year, or their great young up and coming players will all fill in superbly (sarcasm alert). All the injury prone Sox are doomed to a near full season on the IL. Sale is toast. Eovaldi can never pitch more than 150 IP again. ERod is doomed. Richards, too. Ottavino sucked, last year, so he will this year, too. EHern is a 700 hitter. Cordero is a joke. JD will not rebound. Need I go further?

You seem very certain your kids will deliver. Maybe you will be right.

I'd take that trade, too, but it certainly is not a given, and that wasn't my point, anyway. I was talking about the Yankee team from 2018-2020, who you added and who you lost. The young players coming up should certainly help you, and likely more than the amount you lost with Paxton,Happ and Ottavino- certainly if just looking at 2020. Losing Tanaka is huge, and you know it. Kluber and/or Taillon could easily make up for his loss, but maybe not. Sevy's return could be a big plus, or he could need more time to get back to norm of have a setback. I'm not saying your outlook is not very good. I project you win the division, but it is not a lock. You do seem yo have more depth than recent years, but almost all of it is speculative to highly speculative, and when it comes to speculation, you always seem very rosy with Yankee players and very pessimistic with similar situated Sox players.

I mentioned 2018 to 2020 not just last year, and Paxton gave you a lot over those years. You are looking solely at 2020, and that has merit. However, when you look at the Sox, you seem to lessen the 2020 to 2021 comp and look more at the 2018 and 2019 Sox comp. In 2020, we had no ERod or Sale. No Richards, Ottavino (his 2020 numbers do not dfefine who he is or will be), Cordero, Marwin, EHern, Andries and Sawamura. We are clearly way better in 2021 than 2020- by more than you improved on paper. We got way better. Yes, way better than 65 wins could be just 78-82 wins, but that's a bigger improvement than the Yanks will see. The Jays also improved by more than the Yanks. Your statement about the AL East getting decidedly worse is false- on paper. Only the Rays got worse.

The great "depth" the Yankess now have is not from adding to their roster with signings or acquisitions. They actually lost Tanaka, Paxton and Happ and added Kluber and Taillon for a net loss of one pitcher. The "added" depth is from their farm getting one year older and players returning from injury, namely Sevy's scheduled mid season return. While I do see an improved depth from rising Yankee prospects and young pitchers, it is highly speculative in nature, as is all of these types of additions. Having several promising youngsters in reserve sure beats having just Houck, Seabold and Ward, but nothing is a certainty with all of these young guys as well as Kluber and Taillon. Only Cole is a certainty. They did add some outside depth to their pen in O'Day and Wilson, but both of them are not solid pen locks and may not make up for losing Ottavino, combined. Added: Kluber, Taillon, O'Day & Wilson Lost: Tanaka, Paxton, Ottavino & Happ. (Sevy scheduled to return mid season.)

One could easily argue the Jays improved by more than the Yanks. The Sox, too, but not by enough to realistically overtake the Yanks.

The point is, they don't have to win 89 to make the playoffs or to show vast improvement over a 2020 team on pace to win under 65 games.

How do you figure? Yes, the Sox sucked,last year, but they clearly and decidedly improved by a lot. The Jays got way better. The O's stayed the same, more or less. The Rays always surprise, despite looking worse on paper, but I agree, they got worse. The Yanks play 4 other teams in the AL East- 2 got much better, one got worse and one stayed the same. What's "decidedly worse" about that?

You lost a lot of key players from the 2018-2020 teams. Yes, some gave you crap in 2020, but replacing Tanaka, Paxton and Happ with some guys with serious injury issues, mental issues and/or limited MLB experience does not mean you have clearly improved. Yes, you look "deeper," but deeper with many unknown commodities. Sevy should provide a big boost, and he is more likely to do well in 2021 than Sale, but he is not a given, either. You guys are clearly the favorites in the AL East, but you were, last year, too. I don't blame you for being optimistic, but your pessimism over the Sox seems to be more extreme than your optimism towards the Yanks. I get it: it's spring, but it's a long season.

That's assuming a significant amount of injuries. Sure, starting off with Sale on the IL (known all along) and now seeing ERod & Brasier missing opening days does not look good, but it does not mean we will be seeing the amount of injuries the Yankees have seen the last 1-2 years. I can see the fragility or Eovaldi and Richards, and the great unknown about the effects of COVID on ERod, but it's not a given we see a lot of missed time from our core group of players, and guys like Houck, Seabold, Duran, Arauz, Chavis, Marwin and a few others do have some promise. If we have to go beyond those guys, you are right- we are in deep doo-doo.

You want a bunch of guys like Brewer, Valdez and Politi (plus several others) as a second tier of depth, in hopes that one or two contribute in a meaningful way, and we don't get killed going through a trial and error process until we find one that helps. We all had hoped none of these guys would be on the opening day roster or even the first to be called up, but with Sale, Brasier, Barnes and maybe Cordero all out to start the year, it looks like some of these guys will be bumped up to first tier replacement players for us. Brewer and Valdez have both shown some ability to get enough batters out to be a slight plus, but I would prefer not to count on them to do so. Bloom has vastly improved our 40 man roster depth, over the winter, but there are still holes, and the bottom 4-6 players on the 40-man are not all that promising. We knew Sale was going to be out, and we expected we'd have some issues with Eovaldi & Richards. The spring games took away some of the doubt about ERod, until the dead arm issue occurred. The 8-9 man pen all looked healthy, but when you have a group of 8-9 players expected to be on the 26 man roster, you have to count on 1 or 2 being on the IL at any given time. One could argue our "counting on that" was not sufficient in the pitchers we have slotted 9-11. (Even our 8th guy, Brice, is highly questionable, and our #7 Taylor is somewhat questionable.) Here's a rough idea of what our pitching depth charts looks like: SP (Sale IL) ERod (out and possibly on IL) Eovaldi Richards Perez Pivetta Andriese or Whitlock (spot starters) Houck Seabold Gossett, Hart, Ward, Politi, Kent, Winckowski/German RP Ottavino Barnes (C-19 list) Brasier (IL) D Hern Sawamura Andriese Taylor Brice Whitlock Valdez Schreiber, Walden, McCarthy, Bazardo, Poyner, Ort, Blair, Feltman Our pitching depth looks to be our weakest area, despite Houck and a few others having some promise.

So, no ERod & no Barnes. Hopefully, it won't be for long. Assuming both go on the IL or the COVID list, who's on the 26 man roster: 14 Pitchers: Eovaldi, Richards, Perez, Pivetta, Andriese (at least for 1-2 starts) Ottavino, D Hern, Sawamura, Taylor, Whitlock, Brice, Brewer, Valdez Other options: SP: Houck, Seabold, Gossett, Hart, Weber RP: Bazardo (Others on IL: Sale & Brasier) 12 Non Pitchers (Cordero is on C19 list but may make opening day roster) Vazquez & Plawecki Dalbec Kike Devers Bogaerts Marwin Verdugo Renfroe JD Bench: Arroyo & Chavis Other options: CF Duran IF Arauz 2B/SS Downs

Where's he gonna play? 1B? DH?

Small sample size ST Sox OPS: 1.286 Downs 1.229 Hermann 1.214 Dalbec 1.055 Cordero .970 Chavis .940 Ockimey .918 EHern .887 Duran .839 Jimenez .806 Renfroe .802 Marwin .771 Arroyo .673 Devers .598 JD

Even through the 60'sand 70's, there were serious issues.

Catching prospects seem so hard to get right.

For a reason.