moonslav59

Me, too, but we were talking about ... Chris Feakin' Sale! I really like ERod, but he is no Chris Sale. Will he get close to what what Sale or Corbin got? Bauer got $102M/3. ERod is no Bauer, either, but maybe the longer deals will come back into fashion, soon.

More good news!

...and I agree with his sentiments.

I agree Corbin is a much better comp, but I was just curious why many want to extend ERod (me too) but many hated the Sale deal.

I read what Cora said, and he did say it was Beni’s choice, but he did not say “against team” wishes.

That contract is similar to Sale’s. The only similarity between Sale and ERod is the health issues.

Maybe the "against their will" was the poison pill they refused to swallow.

I have studied the velo charts very deeply. The guy finished in the top 6 CYA voting every year from 2012-2016 and ERA+ in 2014. He also pitched more innings per season from 2012-2016 than from 2017-2019. 1,016 IP from 2012-2016 is 203 per season. He had 371 IP from 2017-2018 or about 185 IP per season. The 2012-2016 Sale was a tremendous pitcher. Yes, his overall numbers were better with Boston before getting hurt, but reverting back to CWS numbers would still be great. He lead the league in K/BB in 2015, K/9 in 2014 & 2015.

Thanks for finally responding to the actual points being made. I would still like some further response. For several posts you pointed out that Sale's velo being at 92-93, which is less than it was from 2017-2019, is a sign that he is toast or likely toast or he will likely never be what he used to be again. 92-93 was his velocity from 2013-2016, and he was a tremendous pitcher, then. If he can come back to 92-93, why can't he be great again? Look, I get the shoulder issue could force another extended down time or surgery. I get he may never be the same, but you seem so sure he can't be great at 92-93, and who knows, maybe he can get back to 94-95 after this surgery and extended rest to the shoulder.

Can you, for once, please address the point about Sale being very effective before his spike in velocity once he joined Boston, and why he cannot be as successful as he was with the CWS with the velocity he had then and you expect going forward? He doesn't need 2018 velocity to be great. He proved that with the CWS. Nobody is saying "There is nothing to see here." We are all concerned about Sale's health and future outlook. The loss of velocity is an issue, but how much did he lose, and what will it be after he returns?

I'm all for extending Devers- large and long. I think ERod should be given a serious offer to extend, but I'm not sure even an offer like Sale got is called for. I think Sale is going to prove a lot of doubters wrong. They guy is a fierce competitor. I know that doesn't help, if his arm is hanging by a thread, but many pitchers come back from the surgery he had and do well. I'm more than hopeful. I am confident he contributes in a big way going forward.

The concerns about Covid effects are different, but are they less concerning, especially from someone who had serious effects already? There are several very concerning studies that show serious lingering effects to those hit hard by Covid. Nobody knows for sure one way or the other, but ERod has never been nearly as good as Sale, and he only had one season (2019), where he seemed to master his high pitch count to IP ratio and gives us more than 138 IP in a season. Sale was much better and maybe had much bigger health concerns, so do you extend ERod to the same contract given to Sale?

One more reason to start the season with 13 pitchers not 14.

It "already has been?" The extension started in 2020.

I thought the Eovaldi deal was too large and 2 years too long, but I get the loyalty angle. However, extending players after just a great playoff showing rarely works in any sport. My point on signing ERod was about extending him now or very soon- knowing he has health concerns. How is doing so much different that the Sale extension was?

Thanks for the honesty. I loved the Sale extension and hope we can extend ERod before he wins the CYA, this year.

Nice to see some pitchers rounding into form.

9 pen arms of which 3 can go 3-5 IP every 3-5 days and another 3 can go 2-3 IP every 2-4 days. Are we talking 1-3 IP by all our starters over the first 2 weeks? Let's look at the first 12 games in 14 days and assume the starters average giving us a putrid 3 IP on average. That leaves 6 IP x 12 games in 14 days. That's 72 IP, which is a number that is likely significantly more than could ever be expected. Let's start with the short relievers and go to longer ones. With 2 days off in the first 2 weeks, our 1 inning -mostly every other day guys, Barnes & Ottavino could both pitch in 8-9 games each. That's 17 IP from those two alone. That leaves 55 IP. Let's go to pitchers who can go 1-2 IP every other day or about 9-12 IP every 14 days. DHern, Sawamura, Taylor, Brice and Brewer/Valdez fit this profile. That's 5 pitchers x 10 IP= 50 total.That leaves 5 IP total, over 14 days, for our two long guys: Andriese & Whitlock. Together they could give 3-5 IP every 4-5 days or a total of 22-28 IP combined over those 14 days for a surplus on 17-23 innings from the pen. I'm just not seeing us coming close to needing 9 pen arms. If our starters are giving us 1-2 IP, we simply call up Houck or Valdez/Brewer or activate Brasier.

I wonder how many posters who were against the Sale signing are now for extending ERod at a slight discount rate due to health concerns. Rolling the dice wins some and loses some, and to point out again, Sale's contract just started, last year.

An interesting note: Sale's K/9 were the highest of his career in 2018 (13.5) and 2019 (13.3). His career number before 2018 was 10.5. Someone mentioned all the mileage he had on his arm. Sale has only gone over 175 IP five times in his career (and over 209 just three times.) One wonders if he just over pitched in 2018 to reach that amazing 2.11 ERA and 13.5 K rate. After missing a couple starts after his July 27th start in 2018, he K'd 12 guys in 5 IP. I think the velo chart showed him above his career norm in that game. He then missed a few more starts and came back in the middle of September for 4 starts: 1 IP 2 K 3 IP 1 K 3.1 IP 7 K 4.2 IP 8 K He pitched 15.1 IP in the 2018 playoffs and had 24 K's (a 14.1 K/9 rate), but he also walked 8 batters (4.7 per 9) and 11 hits (not bad) and a 4.11 ERA. He certainly was not himself in 2019, and his last start was August 13th. His last two starts had some good numbers: 14.2 IP 25 K 2 BB 7 H (WHIP below 0.500) 3 ER (1.84 ERA) 2019 saw a few bad short stretches by Sale, along with some very nice longer stretches. I'm not sure if any of this has to do with what we can expect going forward, but some are using his numbers from 2018-2019 to show he was toasted before the surgery. 2019 broken down from the start of the season: Game stretch/ ERA 4/ 8.50 12/ 2.44 3/ 8.27 2/1.50 2/ 14.00 2/ 1.84 3 bad stretches of 7 games total ruined what might have been a great season. Of course, most pitchers could break down a season like this and say similar things, but the fact is, he looked great for several stretches, including a 12 game stretch.

I think when Cordero returns, Chavis will be sent down. Arroyo is out of options. I don't think Marwin is sent down.

Even after knowing what I know about Sale, now, I still think the roll of the dice was worth the risk. I'd rather have Sale than 2 Eovaldi's or a Price & Eovaldi combined.

I'd go with 13 pitchers until April 15 or 16, when we are 4-5 games into a long stretch or no days off and after we have 2 days off in the first 9 days of the season. We might go longer, depending on how deep we had to go into the pen over the first 2 weeks of the season. I can't see Brice and Brewer being overused by the 14th or 15th game of the season. Chances are even having just one of the two won't see overuse. I never thought I'd hear myself says this, but I want Chavis on the opening day roster. (I also think we need Arroyo or Arauz, too.) IMO, the only argument against Chavis is Duran not Brewer, but I guess it is what it is. We have a few guys that can go long innings in relief, in case a starter gets booted early a few times in the first 2 weeks. They can go long (3-4 IP) maybe 3-4 times in the first 14 days, so the one inning RP'ers should not be overused. If things fall apart, early, then make a roster move once you look to short-handed in the next game. These guys at the alternative site should be readily available and on-hand in less than 24 hours.

Is Cordero on the IL or C-19 list?

Every contract is a roll of the dice. Signing Sale to about the same money Corbin got seems like a good business practice despite the risks. BTW, this season is just year 2 of the deal, so let's not proclaim it as a bust just yet. Both sides clearly knew there were health concerns. His contract amount is clear evidence neither side thought Sale was 100% healthy and had a rosy health future. Nobody here has the actual test results, but that doesn't mean we don't know jack.