moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Why do you assume I don’t look at the charts? I don’t have to agree with everything fangraphs and br print, lord knows you don’t, otherwise you’d more respect Porcello’s 19th place ranking. We both have different views. I’m not inventing my own way of rating anyone. I’ve always looked in context.
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Can you try to answer my question?
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When you say below average, I look to see if there are about as many pitchers ahead as behind. Only counting 150 starters a year is being generous to all the SPers that were worse- so bad they never reached enough inning to qualify. When you compare him to other starters of his era, he was average in some categories and above average in others and top tier in fwAR. Average does not mean 2 out of 3 pitchers are worse than you. IMO. We’ve beaten this subject to death.
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If anyone ever gives up on a Sox game again, I won't know what to say. These guys are amazing! Valdez was a big key, and it's great to see Verdugo start heating up. Remember when we used to say this team had 4 good hitters and nobody else? Let's see Verdugo make it 4 again, and Kike make it 5, though a tough night for him. This season is magical.
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Houck can be a monster in the pen. I think Gray is better than Richards and Perez, but it's not a sure bet he'll be better the last 2 months. If ERod needs to go on the IL, Gray would be a big help.
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Where do you get the average or 1.9 BWAR? Just curious.
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He certainly was not good if you combined those 5 of 6 years.
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Let's go over every pitcher from 2009-2020, season by season. That's 12 seasons x 150 pitchers (5 per team x 30 teams.) That's 1800 sample sizes of the top 150 pitchers over 12 years. Guess how many had a 2.6 fWAR out of over 1800 samples? It's 555. So a 2.6 fWAR would place you in the upper third tier (600-600-600). If being in the upper third is mediocre, then our issue is not with Porcello. It's what you and others see as being mediocre vs good. Here's the breakdown Top 3rd 150 samples at 4.4 and above 150 from 3.4 to 4.4 150 from 2.8 to 3.4 150 from 2.4 to 2.8 Middle 3rd: 150 from 2.1 to 2.4 150 from 1.7 to 2.1 150 from 1.4 to 1.7 150 from 1.1 to 1.4 Middle of the middle 1.1 to 1.7 Lower 3rd: 0.7 to 1.1 0.3 to 0.7 0.0 to 0.3 -1.6 to 0.0
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From 2009-2020 there were 150 pitchers with 800+ IP. That's 5 pitchers per team x 30 teams (150). This may be a flawed method of determining a pitcher's value in terms of context and how other starters were doing during his era. There are many pitchers in that era that did not reach 800 IP. My guess is most were worse than these 150, but I'm sure some were better, since their career did not overlap fully with 2009-2020, of their career started after 2009, and they have not pitched 80 innings, yet. If you go by the top 30 are #1's, 31-60 is #2's, 61-90 is #3's..., here's how Porcello ranks among his peers in these important categories: 19th fWAR (#1 starter) 81st xFIP- (#3 starter) 85th SIERA (#3 starter) 85th K-BB% (#3) 89th WHIP (#3) 95th ERA- (#4) 140th in BAbip (.308) could be an indicator he had poor fielding behind him and/or pitched in pitcher's parks more often than others. This is backed up by his low LD% (73rd ranked) and hard hit% (57th ranked).
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Bogey could probably use 7-10 days off, but with no Arroyo or Marwin it’s not easy.
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I’d say much better. He was our 1-2 starter for a big chunk of the season.
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But WAR, OPS against and xFIP show he’s much better than average.
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Of course he may hit better or much better than .600. I expect him to. I only said Jeter will not be called up if he keeps hitting .600. He will be added to the 40 man, this winter.
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Exactly, but ERA + and ERA- don’t really make Porcello look much better. One would think over a long career many things like inherited runners allowed to score or not would all even out, but really there are probably significant variances from pitcher to pitcher. To me, the biggest flaws in ERA is with the E. earned runs are often the result of poor fielding that is not called an error. Whether a ball hit is determined to be a hit or an error is also often arbitrary calls made by the scorer. Park difference can make huge differences. That is one reason I look at stats like OPS against which to me is a stat that is a “run prevention indicator.” It’s been shown to have a high correlation to how many runs are scored. Using multiple categories to definitively value a player makes the most sense. Using just ERA, SIERA and ERA+ will not tell the whole story.
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His OPS against is pretty bad 7 or 8 games back.
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Yes, I know his grip on a slot is tenuous. His last start was not bad, so he'll get one or two more, unless we trade him. I'm okay with moving Houck into the rotation, when needed. I'm not sure now is the time, unless weplace ERod on the IL. Richards and Perez will get 1-2 more starts, minimum.
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This looks like a steal for the Sox, but the BTV value is 32.4 to LAA and 28.4to BOS. Downs, Dalbec & Groome for Walsh(1B) & R Iglesias (RP) Jared Walsh .832 OPS (22 HRs & 66 RBI) 4+ yrs of control Raisel Iglesias 3.43 ERA/ 0.918 WHIP (13.5 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9) rental
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I'd rather have Dalbec + Cordero/Kike/Marwin
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Barlow was a joke. I'd give Dalbec & Potts for Santana & Staumont (Maybe Dalbec & Groome)
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I wasn't aware. Thanks. That is not a bad contract.
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BTV accepted Ro Hernandez, Groome, Potts & Rosario for Aguilar (1B), Thompson (SP) & Bleier (RP) Jesus Aguilar .791OPS (17 HRs & 71 RBI) Zach Thompson 2.45 ERA/ 1.061 WHIP Richard Bleier 2.82 ERA/o.861 WHIP
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My last line was we trade for a RP'er. That's 2 for 2 plus Sale (maybe minus ERod). Gray > Richards
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Dalbec has way more value than Santana. I know it sounds whacked, but 2 month rentals don't have much value. Yes, Barlow has a lot of value. I was just being sarcastic. BTV accepts this trade: Dalbec for Santana & Staumont
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"Well" to us is mediocre to him. This argument is NOT about Porcello. It's about what some consider "good" and "mediocre."
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Downs will not be called up, if he remains near .600.
