I'm not saying you are wrong, but he might be just getting lucky. His BAbip is .278, which is significantly less than his career .321 mark, so it does look like some luck is involved, but his hard hit % has dropped from 39.8% to 44.7% to 31.5%, this year.
I'm not seeing a bunch of warning track shots or blister line-out for outs.
I certainly doubt he leads our rotation in ERA, when the season is over, but it doesn't mean he has to return to 5.38 either.