moonslav59

I know you asked about 2022, but since this thread is about 2021, I started with that area, first. I did not go into the fact that we may be sellers at the deadline and how that might affect the 2022 outlook. I guess we go on the assumption we take the options on Richards, Vaz and Perez, but maybe not Andriese, who would make $3.5M, next year. Assume no on him. . I don't like to go by what we drop in salary, since arb raises can and will be substantial, this winter. Devers enters his 2nd arb year out of 3. Renfroe 3 of 4 Plawecki 4 of 4 Brasier 2 of 3 Cordero 2 of 3 and all these players first timers: Verdugo, Pivetta, Arroyo, Taylor, Brennan & Chavis I'll assume JD stays at $22M and does not opt out. Here are my numbers, including the 3 options taken (in Lux $): 25 Sale 22 JD (no opt out or renegotiation) 20 Bogey 17 Eovaldi 15 Price (edit) 10 Richards (option) 7.0 Kike 7.0 Vaz (option) 6.0 Perez (option) That's a base of $129M I'm no expert on arbs, but let's assume: $7M from $4.58M) Devers enters his 2nd arb year out of 3. $5M (from $3.1M) Renfroe 3 of 4 $2M (from $1.6M) Plawecki 4 of 4 $1.5M (from $1.25M) Brasier 2 of 3 $1.0M (from $800K)Cordero 2 of 3 $4.0M Verdugo, 1 of 3 $3.5M Pivetta, 1 of 3 $2.0M Arroyo, 1 of 3 $1.5M Taylor, 1of 4, $800K Brennan, 1of 3 $800K Chavis, 1 of 4 The arbs add about $29.5M plus $2.5M for the rest of the 40 man roster and $16M for player benefits and the total before replacing or adding anyone is: $177M If we can spend up to the first tax line (assuming it's the same $210M) we will have $33M to spend. If we can spend up to the second line, it's $53M. I'm not going to name any names except I think maybe we try to bring Barnes back. The big need areas, to me, are (with projected cost via free agency): #1-2 SP ($15-30M/yr) Losinng ERod this winter and are adding Sale in 2021. (Could add Houck/Whitlock) Closer ($10-18M) Losing Barnes (No closer in the system unless Ort turns a miracle) Set-Up ($5-10M) Losing Ottavino (no clear #2 RP'er in the system) 1B, 2B, OF ($5-20M) Losing Marwin (Duran, Casas, Downs?) RP'er ($3-7M) Losing Andriese (Bazardo/Seabold/ converted SP'er assuming all SP'er healthy) That's $38M minimum and maybe $78M maximim. I doubt we spend more than $53M, so we can't get the best at every position of need. More likely, we will plan on in system options to cover 1B, 2B and or CF and go cheap there. We might sign just 2 RP'er not 3. We may sign a #3 SP'er not a #1-2 type, which may depend on how Sale looks, this year. We have a great chance to improve upon this current roster. Barnes will be tough to extend, re-sign or replace. Ottavino is pitching to his contract value, so that should be about push. ERod looked very hard to replace before seeing him in 2021, so far. We still need to fill his slot, but right now, he's pitching like a 4 or 5 (maybe even a 6), but to improve, we need to replace him with a 1 or 2, IMO. That should be our top priority, and if we only have $33M to spend, we might spend $20M on a solid #2 or very old ace and $13M on a good but not great closer and count on our system to fill out the depth issues. It should be an interesting winter. (edited numbers and comments to reflect Price's $15M I forgot to include.)

In isolation none of the hulk acquisitions, either by trade, draft or IFA look all that bad and some are good one, but my point was putting all his eggs in a very narrow and limited basket.

That might be just enough to win a WC slot, too.

So, if you are Leiter, and you want to fall to the Sox, you demand $8M plus from the top 3 teams in the draft, then take less from the Sox, since we cant offer as much?

At 40-27, we'd have to go 41-54(.432) the rest of the way. While that falls within the reasonable range, when you look at how weak many other teams are, I don't see that happening,

He still has some fatal flaws- like acquiring muscle bound hulks that spend way too much time on the IL.

Losing Glasnow could really hurt the Rays.

Oh, I know the risk of failure is higher, but it's those 7 year deals that kill us (and others).

There is a lot to digest, here. First, the $4.5M we are under, this year. If we are still in the race come the middle to end of July, we can try to trade for some sort of salary dump(s) without losing anything too promising. I have mentioned trading Chavis and/or someone like Groome or Ward. Since the incoming player's salary is pre-rated, the cost is roughly 1/3 of their season contract. In Lux tax dollars, that could mean we could trade for someone like: Danny Duffy ($13M/3= $4.3M) Brad Hand ($10M/3=$3.3M) Pineda ($10M/3=$3.3M) Currently on IL Kikuchi ($14M x 2/3= $4.7M for 2021) We'd need to dump $200K somehow. Will Smith ($13.3M/3- $4.4M for 2021) Adam Frazier ($4.3M/3= $1.4M) Could be added with someone else (Gregory Polanco -$11.6M/3= $3.9M) is not someone I want, but if we took him with Frazier, we'd only need Pitt to pay $850K of $5.35M to stay under, and the return would not have to be as much.) Too much would be wanted in return: Trevor Story ($13.8M/3= $4.6M) Money could work. Starling Marte ($12.5M/3= $4.2M) Money is perfect, but they'd want top prospects To get Scherzer ($26.7M/3= $8.9M), we'd need WSH to pay about half what is owed him. That would mean we'd have to give way more than Chais, Groome & Ward. That's not enough, if we paid the full boat plus more cash. Freddie Freeman ($16.9M/3 = $5.7M) would put us over, too, but not by much. Charlie Morton ($15M/3= $5M) is very close. Maybe we trade for Adam Frazier ($1.4M)and Brad Hand ($3.3M), and find a way to shed $250K or so. Frazier can play 2B & OF. I'll address 2022 in my next post.

The big plus with signing much older pitchers is the length of the contract risk would be much lower, and that is what usually kills teams signing big-named players.

I do think the Yankee roster is good and deep, and I still like your farm more than ours, but I put the question out there. It seems like there is a solid argument for both of the opposite positions. Are the Yanks really as good as the press and ranking services claim? If yes, why have they not come close to winning a ring or look like they will anytime soon? Are the Yankees really this bad? Their recent season's records say no, and they are under performing, this year or managed poorly. I wasn't really taking a side, except I'm a firm believer that Boone is a baboon. They should be winning more than they are, so yes, I agree it looks like Cashman has done better than Boone, but IMO, they both need to go. Too many very bad decisions by both.

Worcester OPS 1.195 Cordero (61 ABs) earning a 2nd look-see .972 Duran (100) making his case .956 Wilson (116) more ready, right now? .892 Mieses (34) .829 Herrmann (63) surprise catcher option .779 Lopez (82) but 1.083 w Portland (11 HRs/84 ABs) .737 Chavis (76) not really earned his second look-see .697 Downs (100) Meh .671 Ockimey (71) so much for my sleeper from years ago .666 Y Munoz (114) not earning a 40 man slot like this .644 Arauz (85) maybe time is almost up on '19's rule 5 .458 Wong (45) small sample size but not encouraging ERA/WHIP 0.56/1.13 K Ort (16 IP) WHIP may suggest some luck 2.45/0.89 Schreiber (15) Hmm... 3.38/1.40 Gonsalves (29) Nope 3.58/1.35 Gossett (38) Nope 3.83/1.05 Espinal (40) Nope 5.92/1.34 K Hart (38) Double Nope Portland .875 Casas (90) moving up to AAA? .869 Meneses (134) making a case .824 Baldwin (61) meh .807 Castellano (124) meh .781 Fitzgerald (122) meh .714 R Hernandez (104) not bad for a catcher .640 Rosario (122) my current sleeper prospect Potts on IL 0.66/1.24 Zack Kelly (14 IP) 2.25/1.75 B Bello (4)/ w Greenville 2.27/1.01 (32IP) 2.39/1.04 Winckowski (38) 4.24/1.41 Feltman (17)

The new soxprospects.com rankings are out- updated for the PTBNLs added, last week. I kinda thought Valdez would be ranked more highly, but he was placed 19th (XST). Gambrell was placed 30th (Greenville). Luis de la Rosa was placed 47th (XST). All-in-all, I had hoped for better, but we did add some very promising players with high upside potential. Other significant movements (Whitlock moved to post prospect list): Moving up: 6>4 Jimenez (jumped over Houck at 5) 24>9 Bello 27>25 Winckowski (I expected a steeper climb) 33>27 Blalock 40>35 Howlett 39>36 Wilson 42>37 Cannon NR>43 Kaleb Ort (I know he's old, but man o man) 53>45 Wu-Yellan NR>54 Kole Cottam Moving down: 19>21 Bazardo 21>23 Potts 26>31 German (acquired with Ottavino) 28>32 Wallace (Pillar trade) 20>34 Jorge Rodriguez (IFA) 35>38 Miguel Bleis (IFA, it's been too long since our last IFA hit.) 37>41 Eduardo Lopez 31>44 Zeferjahn (The biggest drop) 41>46 C Koss (Yoan Aybar trade) Gonsalves & Espinaldropped 4-5 slots in the mid 50's.

I was a cliff-dweller and thought it would take 2-3 years to get back into serious contention (not outside chance for WC berth contention). I don't view us a serious contenders just yet, but we are much closer than I thought we'd be, and maybe with a few tweaks at teh deadline or a surprising showing by Sale, we could be there, this season. The way the system is set up against the big spending teams, I thought it would take longer to rebuild the farm. We're still not top tier, but last summer's sell-off, the Betts trade, and this year's high draft picks may get us there by the end of the summer. We lose Pedey's contract, and now losing ERod doesn't look as bad as it did before this season began. Replacing or re-signing Barnes looks like the only real urgent need. Replacing Ottavino and ERod will be costly, but improving on their 2021 numbers does not look impossible. Marwin is easily replaced or extended. We can expect some positive impact from some of these guys over the next year or 1.5 years (not counting Sale & Brasier and more use of Whitlock): Duran Houck Casas Bazardo Downs Seabold Ward, Bello, Groome, Murphy, Winckowski, Song? Ronaldo Hernandez/Connor Wong Wilson/Rosario/Arauz/Potts Politi 2+ years out This year's draftees Jimenez Mata A Ramirez Yorke Lugo, Bonaci, Jordan, Valdez (now ranked 19th), Decker, Howlett, Cannon, Bleis Feltman, Blalock, Drohan, Gambrell (ranked 30th), F German, J Wallace, R Rodriguez

Yes, we are talking about "right now." The main question, first, is how long a look do we give Santana? Dalbec seems to have extended his look to some degree with his whopping .795 OPS over his last 9 games (3 HRs a 2B & a 3B). Since Chavis has already been called up, all signs point to Wilson vs Duran or an extra pitcher, if Santana is cut loose. (Remember, there is no sending Santana down to AAA, unless he goes unclaimed after being DFA'd.)

You make too much sense, for a Yankee fan. All kidding aside, I do not think we draft a pitcher, because our system lacks great young pitchers. I'm sure Bloom knows the miss rate on pitchers, even college ones is higher than positional players, and with a budget like the Sox have, we can always go out and buy pitching, when needed. One thing to think about: how does the miss rate compare between HS positional players and college pitchers? Plus, I'm not sure how much GMs think about miss rate histories. It's probably a factor but not the top one. (Same with pedigree.) That being said, I really like Leiter and am still high on Rocker. Here is my updated Sox pick list (not how I think the draft will go): 1. Davis 2. Leiter 3. Rocker 4. Mayer (flip a coin with Lawlar) 5. Lawlar 6. Jobe 7. House 8. Watson If we get Davis or Leiter I will be ecstatic! I think there is a drop after the top 2, and the 3 through 6 or 8 are pretty tightly bunched. (I'm no expert on drafts.)

We were schooled on how to rebuild a team without blowing everything up. Yes, the Yanks did have a "sell off" a while back, but we were told their model was the best, and that they were set up for long term success due to having a solid 26 man roster, a solid 40 man roster and a more than solid farm system with a high concentration of very promising pitchers. Now, it's all managements fault that the "great players" are under performing. While I agree management sucks and has sucked for a long time, but maybe- just maybe, they really are not as good as they have looked on paper. If they were as good as some Yankee posters have been saying they are, then Cashman is a genius- not someone worthy of getting the axe, because great players are under perfomring. Which one is it? Or, is it a little or a lot of both? I've never been a Boone fan, except as a Sox fan, I enjoyed watching his bumblings and stumblings. GMs are ultimately judged in hindsight. Maybe that's unfair, but it's true. I liked the Stanton trade, especially getting MIA to fork over some cash. I loved the Taillon trade, the Cole signing, and on and on, but the results have been very unfulfilling for Yankee fans. I give Boone to the all star break to get the team to show some life. Cashman probably lasts to the fall. Sell off in July? Depends, but anyone with just this yeara left has to be on the table, assuming the Yanks still look hapless in July.

We'll find out. Of course, everyone that takes over the game thread, does so after a loss, but my record, so far has been 4-1 (1 v DET, 4 @ BAL), 5-1 (4 v NYY, 1 v MIA, then a loss v HOU)and 1-0 my three times doing game threads. Keep the mojo risin'! I think only Max has a better record.

Oooops, again! Continuing the wrong team listed mojo, in hopes I can repeat Max's 9 gamer. We are facing Atlanta with a start time at 7:20. Tucker Davidson is a lefty, and no Sox player has more than 1 AB vs him. Erod gets the start for the Sox- I think. We will be playing our 15 consecutive day. (We have this Thursday off.) Let's keep the mojo risin'.

Not really a comeback win, but it felt like one, after TOR tied it with 2 outs in the 9th.

Agreed.

Our biggest weakness is 1B, especially vs RHP. Chavis plays 1B and hits RHPs, better than Dalbec. When Santana's time is up, it will be Franchy's second chance.

He had fun in the OF, too (high-fived the fan, restroom break in the monster, etc...)

It appears, I'm the stopper! (LOL)

His love of the game reminds me of Manny.