moonslav59

We all tend to highlight the good in our own players and the bad in our rivals, but we know we do it, and some of us don't usually go to jacko's extreme (or we don't realize we are.)

I'm not a big Chavis fan. I must have traded him 100 times on the BTV site, but I've said all along, he deserves at least one more long look at the big league level, and we should go out of our way to get him that chance in 2021. I wanted him on the opening day roster (no 14 pitchers.) I wanted him called up numerous times. I want him playing nearly everyday, now. I'm with you on this.

Top Sox OPS on the Farm (25+ ABs, unless noted) 1.140 J Lopez 1.130 J Mieses 1.086 J Duran 1.042 D Santana (15) 0.996 T Casas (started off very slowly) 0.984 C Cannon 0.943 C Hermann (19) 0.923 B Howlett 0.905 M Wilson 0.875 J Rosario 0.858 R Fitzgerald 0.847 G Jimenez 0.794 R Hernandez 0.699 Y Munoz 0.596 J Ockimey 0.488 J Downs 0.476 N Yorke

That's fine, but the "missed" ML starts were not due to injury. Does that not matter when labelling someone "injury prone?" Argue he was not good enough to start 27+ games, but don't argue he's always hurt.

Arroyo is better vs RHPs than Dalbec. Marwin, too. I'm not for straight platooning Dalbec, as he'd only start 20-25% of the games, but he's not one of our best 9 hitters vs RHPs.

Wasn't Pivetta put on the COVID list for a reaction to the vaccine? Is he starting, tonight?

I may end up wrong, for sure, and I have never doubted the value of Cole, so you don't have to act like I have. Houck is no longer our #6: Whitlock is. Richards is looking as good as Kluber, but the sample size is small for both. "Never been bad?" The guy was a top 20 pitcher way back, when healthy. Really? 5 IP by Garcia in the minors is worth anything? Please, jacko. You know better. Certainly, there is a significant chance Pivetta and Perez "crash and burn" or Eovaldi gets hurt or stumbles, but you seriously neglect the chances your 2-5 starters do, too, or at least your 3-5's. Yes, Montgomery has put up a 2+WAR season, before, but so has Pivetta. Somehow you only twist the good for Yankee pitchers and the bad for Sox pitchers. ERod is NOT pitching to his norm. His norm is better than this. His WHIP is the highest, ever, and by quite a bit. K rate lowest since '16 So, Sevarino is "ahead" of Sale. Too bad he's not as good. It is entirely possible Eovaldi puts up a full season of good pitching. It's entirely possible Pivetta finally does what many felt he could do all along. It's entirely possible Perez has a decent year. It's entirely possible Richards does as well as Kluber. It's entirely possible ERod gets even better at age 28. It's entirely possible Whitlock bites you guys in the ass. It's entirely possible Sale is the great addition we need this summer. The thing is, we may only need 3-4 of these 7 possibilities to happen, maybe less if many of your what ifs don't work out. Like I said, I still think the Yanks are the faves. You have a better pen and a better ace. The rest is clearly up for debate.

Arroyo was doing well, and he allowed Kike to play the OF, which limited Cordero's PAs. I think Chavis sharing time at 2B, 1B and DH could get him enough PAs. Here's the interesting thing- both Chavis & Arroyo do not have big split differentials, so Chavis could play 1B vs some or many RHPs and 2B vs all LHPs. Dlabec sist vs tough righties. Arroyo sits vs all LH'd starters. Career splits: vs RHPs: .729 Chavis .676 Arroyo (.888 in 2020) .622 Dalbec vs LHPs 1.020 Dalbec .736 Chavis .629 Arroyo Another benefit of this is being able to use Kike and Marwin almost exclusively in the OF. Demote Cordero, so he can play everyday at AAA. I would not replace Arroyo with Santana, so if Chavis keeps doing well, and Arroyo and Kike come off the IL as planned, Santana may get squeezed out of his ML slot that seemed to be ready for him just days ago.

That's the player philosophy, and if we win one day at a time, all will be well.

I agree. Even if they end up using Whitlock as a 4-5 IP RP'er every 5-7 days, I'm fine with that. It would fill a big need and give our whole pen a day off here and there,assuming he's rolling along. It will also get him the 120 IP or so, they likely want him to get. I trust Bloom & Cora know what they are doing long term.

I like Casas, too, and he's finally getting some PAs at a higher level. I usually hesitate to get all gushy with single A players.

They could also be giving him longer throwing sessions in practice and maybe moving towards the throwing routine of SP'ers. They are going slow, as they should. The last thing we want to do is jerk this kid around and put him in situations where he may not be successful. His innings will surely be limited, this season, so I'm not sure why quickly boosting his IP, right now, is the right idea? Do we want him to reach his limit by August or September 1st of by season's end? Another issue is this: say we get him to the point where he is ready to start a game, but our 5 starters are still pitching well. Do we start a piggy-backing rotation slot? Do we send a starter to the pen?

If we play this 14 game stretch at .500, it's hard to imagine doing that through June & July.

All it took was one big win.

Before tonight, our staff held the opps to a .576 OPS in high leverage situations. Whitlock was at .800 in just 15 PA (10th on staff) in PAs against- 304 total by the team. The vaunted Yankee pen has held the opps to .660 OPS, which is actually worse than the Sox in 241 PAs. It's .522 Late & Close. The Sox are at .619.

Just a coincidence that the two most important factors to winning happens to be ONLY the #1 SP'er and pen? The 2-5 starters and starter depth will pitch about 40% of your total innings, this year. Ours, too. Offense matters, too. Both teams seem to not want to go over the tax line. The Sox are about $4.5M under the line. The Yanks are about $2.4M under. While I agree, the Sox are less likely to go all in at the deadline, it's no slam dunk Cashman & the owners will do what they refused to do the last several years. You guys are still the favorites, in my book, and certainly having the better ace and pen are a big help, but having the best or top 3 offense and maybe better 2-6 starters and the return of Sale possible, this ain't over, yet.

The Sox have an incredibly hard schedule from May 31st to August 1st. Every team can win at any time, but we need to have a lead by the end of May, or we'll be looking at some long odds. We haven't always done all that well vs the worse teams, and some of the teams are not push-overs, but they should be easier to beat than the stretch I'm talking about. Here are our next 14 games: LAA LAA LAA off (start of 3 out of 11 days off- no 14 pitchers?) @TOR @TOR @TOR @PHI @PHI @PHI off ATL ATL off (3 out of 11 days off) MIA MIA MIA

I am, and 39 games is nearly 1/4 of the season, but I've always been one to think sample sizes need to be bigger than 39 games to have a true read on exactly how good or bad anyone is.

Dalbec is finally to .600. Renfroe to .650. Bogey is over 1.000 Richards got his ERA under 4 (3.89).

I love what I'm seeing, too, but 6 weeks is a small sample size.

Before tonight: Runs Scored 191 BOS 190 HOU 187 LAD (no DH) 186 CWS 180 AZ (no DH) 178 CIN (no DH) 23. NYY 143 OPS .759 HOU (119 wRC+) .754 LAD (113) .754 BOS (109) .753 CIN (105) .752 CWS (117) 15. NYY .697 (101) ERA- 74 SDP 75 NYY 77 NYM 80 CLE 81 CWS 88 SFG 89 LAD, MIL 90 TOR 81 MIA 90 MIA 93 BOS 95 TBR (Boston is 17th in runs allowed at 162.)

This series only added to the A's flukiness.

Speaking of ex-Sox players in the mix. Hunter Strickland has walked the bases loaded v NYY. Still 9-0 in the 9th.

Nice to see Whitlock go 3 and give the pen a night off. 52 pitches is a kinda lot for 3, but that's one way to "stretch him out." Richards is sealing the deal. Let's hope the bats stay hot. Dalbec, Renfroe and Chavis looked good. Even Arauz got 2 BBs.

That's for sure, and he wasn't swinging for launch angles every time up.