moonslav59

All 10 Rounds 1. M Mayer SS 2. Jud Fabian OF 3. Tyler McDonough OF 4. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz P 5. Nathan Hickey C 6. Daniel McElveny Utility 7. Wyatt Olds P 8. Hunter Dobbins P 9. Tyler Miller 3B 10. Matt Litwicki P Bleacher Reports gives the Sox an A- grade

Here are the top 1Bmen by fWAR on teams that may be sellers at the deadline. (Note" some of these players are not "on the block" or may be too costly for the Sox.) 2.2 Freeman ATL .871 OPS 2.1 J Walsh LAA .892 1.7 Goldschmidt STL .767 1.5 C Santana KCR .789 1.5 T France SEA .756 1.2 Stephenson CIN .806 1.2 T Mancini BAL .791 1.2 G Cooper MIA .867 1.2 R Hoskins PHI .797 1.1 J Aguilar MIA .800 1.1 J Schoop DET .787 1.0 N Lowe TEX .762 0.9 J Votto CIN .810 0.7 A Rizzo Cubs .771 0.8 CJ Cron COL .833 Top RP'ers by fWAR 1.8 Kimbrel Cubs 1.4 R Rodriguez PIT 1.3 T Rogers MN 1.2 S Barlow KCR 1.2 P Sewald SEA 1.1 Gallegos STL 1.0 J Cisnero DET 1.0 P Fry BAL 1.0 Steckenrider SEA Top SP'ers 4.5 Wheeler PHI 3.1 T Rogers MIA 2.8 G Marquez COL 2.5 Scherzer WSH 2.4 W Miley CIN 2.3 J Berrios MN 2.2 P Lopez MIA 2.1 Z Eflin PHI 2.1 Alcantara MIA 2.1 C Morton ATL 2.0 K Gibson TEX 1.9 A Cobb LAA 1.6 M Boyd DET 1.4 D Duffy KCR 1.4 S Gray CIN 1.0 T Anderson PIT

Yes, and nobody is below 50%.

My own games started ranking system: Great Start “A”s: 4 IP O ER, 5 IP 1 ER, 6 IP 2 ER, 8 IP 3 ER Good Starts “B”: 3 IP 0 ER, 4 IP 1 ER, 5 IP 2 ER, 6 IP 3 ER, 8 IP 4 ER Decent Starts “C”: 3 IP 1 ER, 4 IP 2 ER, 7 IP 4 ER, 9 IP 5 ER Bad Starts “D”: 3 IP 2 ER, 5 IP 3 ER, 6 IP 4 ER, 8 IP 5 ER Horrible Starts “F”: 4 IP 3 ER, 5 IP 4 ER, 6 IP 5 ER, 8 IP 6 ER Sox Starters in 2021 34 A starts 16 B starts 3 C starts 14 D starts 22 F starts 43 A & B & C 36 D & F Eovaldi A-9: 4/2, 4/7, 4/30, 5/11,5/29, 6/4, 6/14, 6/26, 7/1 B-2: 4/14, 5/22 C-0 D-1: 4/19 F-6: 4/24, 5/6, 5/16, 6/9, 6/20, 7/6 Pivetta A-8: 4/5, 4/22, 4/28, 5/9, 5/14, 6/2, 6/24, 7/4 B-1: 6/7 C-2: 4/17, 6/18 D-4: 4/11, 5/4, 5/20, 5/26 F-3: 6/12, 6/29, 7/11 ERod A-5: 4/14, 4/20, 5/7, 6/27, 7/2 B-3: 4/25, 6/15, 6/22 C-1: 6/5 D-5: 4/8, 5/12, 5/18, 5/31, 6/10 F-2: 5/1,7/7 Perez A-6: 4/29, 5/10, 5/15, 6/3, 6/19, 7/5 B-6: 4/13, 5/5, 5/21, 5/28, 6/25, 6/30 C-0 D-2: 4/6, 4/23 F-4: 4/18, 6/8, 6/13, 7/10 Richards A-6: 4/15, 4/27, 5/2, 5/13, 5/19, 6/1 B-3: 4/10, 5/25, 7/3 C-0: 5/8 D-2: 6/6, 7/9 F-6: 4/4, 4/21, 6/11,6/16, 6/23, 6/28 Houck A-0 B-1: 4/3 C-0 D-0 F-1: 4/18 A,B & C vs D & F 11-7 Eovaldi 11-7 Pivetta 9-7 ERod 12-6 Perez 9-8 Richards 1-1 Houck

“Finally?” I wanted Dalbec demoted a month ago, but then he showed signs of life. My point was that demoting him does not mean we are giving up- same as with Cordero. Finding cheap 1bmen is easy. That being said, our highest need I’d pitching and defense- not 1B

True, but they have also carried us in some ways. They rarely get pulled before the 4th or 5th inning and are 4th in the AL in SP'er IP, so with a 13 man staff for much of the way, they have allowed our pen to not be over-worked all that much. Our starters are also 4th in AL SP'er fWAR.

That's not a certainty. If they just play to the norm the rest of the way, they'll still be way above the mean at the end of the season.

It almost makes more sense to just trade for a FT 1Bman and let Dalbec "find himself" by playing FT at AAA. Being on the weakside of a platoon does not give you any time to find a groove. I'm not saying I'm against a new 1B platoon, but I just wonder.

Dalbec's .830 OPS since June 10th places him 17th out of 34 1Bmen with 80+ PAs. (10th best SLG% at .513/25th best OBP at .318) Does this mean he has turned the corner and might be an average 1Bman going forward? I sure as hell don't know. Out of 39 1Bmen with 350 PAs since 2020, Dalbec ranks 28th in OPS at .745- just below Hosmer and Carlos Santana and Anthony Rizzo.

According to MLB.com, we got these rankings by pick: 4. Mayer #1 40. Fabian #23 75. McDonough #112

Third Pick... 75. Red Sox: Tyler McDonough, INF, NC State Next picks: 105 and 136...

There is room for adjusting to what pitchers have adjusted to, and he has shown signs of adjusting over the last 80 PAs. .830 OPS Ks: 30 K in 85 PA and 80 AB, but 10 in his last 37 PAs/36 AB. Is this better than before June 10th? 65K in 173 PA and 162 AB Looks about the same, except for very recently.

Okay, the choice of the word "re-set" after we just re-set is not the correct wording. My point is, the Sox probably would love to stay under, so they can get to year 3 in 2024 not 2023.

So, what you are saying is pitchers adjust and batter never counter adjust? What's the time period allowed for the batter to adjust to the pitcher's adjustment? It looks, to me, like .830 over his last 80 PAs might be a sign he has counter-adjusted, but if you want to use his tiny last 7 day sample size, maybe he has not adjusted well enough. Who know what Dalbec will become? Is 350 PAs to start a career enough to know? Being in first place makes it harder to give a kid a longer look, but I think Sox management sees something in Dalbec enough to not want to give up just yet. I was for demoting him a while back, so it's not like I don't understand the frustration and sense of urgency. I'm fine with us trading for a LH'd bat that can play 1B, even before the deadline, if possible, but I still think pitching and defense is our highest need area.

When did I say that? We are talking about Barnes signing now vs next winter and not now vs last winter. Even if you go by last year's 3 biggest RP'er deals, this looks like a nice extension for the team. I still se it as a steal. Maybe highway robbery was hyperbole, but this was a steal. Had there been a FA market in early July, Barnes would have gotten much more, and not just based on the recency effect.

I thought one of the issues was acquiring only power hitters.

WOW! There was talk Mayer might want too much money to allow for expensive late round picks. NICE!

Yes, but that doesn't mean they want to start the clock right away. The Sox history of re-sets often includes 2-3 year under the line stretches. To me, I think the team is looking at a window from 2022 to 2025 as being a better chance at winning it all than 2021. Preventing us from reaching year 3 of the tax in 2023 might be a valid priority. (Assuming this type of tax structure is still around, then.)

Throw out the .830 over his last 80, too? Why? The kid is just starting his ML career. Ups and downs are expected. We have no idea what we can expect going forward. He is not likely going to be a .950 hitter, but I doubt he'll be a .600 hitter either. .745 is pretty good for any player's first 350 PAs in MLB, or at worst, it's not bad enough to end the experiment. I'm not happy with what he's done, this year. His leash is short. I'm not sure the next 2 1/2 weeks are going to sway anyone's opinion either. I'd like to see us make a cheap deal like the Pearce one we made in 2018, but I won't be crushed if we stick with Dalbec or maybe give Cordero, Marwin or Chavis some looks at 1B along the way. To me, our biggest need is pitching and defense.

Umm, stadiums are full again.

Yes, and a career .687 OPS is better than "decent." It is .701 Home and .670 Away Barnes turned a corner in 2017, so I'm not sure counting his first few years does justice to who he is now. Let's look at his OPS Against starting in 2017: .655 .624 .666 .706 (short 2020 season) .518 (so far, this year) Kimbrel since 2017 .444 .565 1.019 (2019) .693 .330 .

No, it's not, although ERA is not a good RP'er stat. His 1.288 WHIP is nothing to write home about either, but his K rate has been off the charts and his FIP is decent. The thing is, decent gets you more than $8M a year, these days. The "recency effect" often warps many deals much higher. Whta Barnes does over the next 3 months might greatly affect what he would have gotten as a FA next winter.

He bats righty. His career and 2021 OPS is about what Dalbec's career OPS is.

Yes. I wasn't trying to argue Mayer belongs above Casas, although I'm sure some ranking services may place him #1 in our system. I was just curious what it would take from Mayer for posters to jump him over Casas. (What Casas does in the next few months may affect that equation, too.)

If we want to re-set, like I think we do, we have about $4.5M to add to the budget. If we are picking up a player or two, we are only paying about 1/3 of their 2021 salary and only 1/3 of the tax line number counts against the tax line. We also may be replacing a salary or two, which may be subtracted from what we add. We could add $4.9M in salary while cutting $400K and still squeak under the tax line.