moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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No proof it's not just random. If he were to suddenly start doing well in the PO's, you'd then say he was clutch. -
If it was totally random, you’d see samples like Kershaw’s, so how does him doing poorly prove it’s a skill?
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I’m not saying you are wrong, but who does Duran replace next year? OF Verdugo, Kike, Renfroe 2B (kike to 2B)
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Where will soxprospects.com place our new draftees, assuming they all sign? Is this reasonable? 1. Casas 2. Duran 3. Mayer 4. Downs 5. Jimenez 6. Houck 7. Fabian 8. Seabold 9. Bello 10. Ramirez 11. Yorke 12. McDonough 13. Groome 14. Mata 15. Song 16. Rodriquez-Cruz 17. Bonaci 18. Jorday 19. Winckowski 20. Murphy 21. Lugo 22. F Valdez 23. Wong 24. Ward 25. Hickey 26. Howlett 27. R Hernandez 28. Rosario 29. MCElveny 30. Olds
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My eyes are getting worse. I was looking at his 4/18 start as the no-no. My bad. He did have one good start after the no-no, but them kaput.
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Depends who is not pitching. LOL.
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Would you do Casas & Downs for Means & Mountcastle?
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They will be no hit.
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He had an 0.98 ERA in his next 4 starts after the no-no. (.370 OPS against) His last 4 starts have not been great, but 2 were fine and none were Richardsesque. IP ER 6.1 4 7.0 2 5.0 3 (4.42 ERA in these 3 games combined) 0.2 2 (injury) He was not pitched since June 5th. Of course, he'd have to be healthy to be traded for.
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It's also important to not sign guys like Pablito and Crawford.
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I agree, and I think that time will be this winter. Even before this season peaked our expectations, I felt we could be very competitive starting in 2022. It should be an interesting winter. Unless we make some trades or expose several promising prospects to Rule 5, we may only have room for 3-4 FAs, tops. If we get near or over the tax line, next year, that would mean we could sign some big contracts. If we make some 3for 1 deals, maybe we sign 5-6 FAs at a lower average cost.
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To me, the only blockbuster type deal I'd like to see Bloom make would be for someone under control for more than 3 more seasons. (Like the Sale deal) Of course, that drives up the return cost immensely. Who here thinks Bloom would make these BTV approved deals for 3.3 years of John Means (worth 40.3 on BTV)? A. Casas 47.7 B. Duran 44.5 C. Downs 20.0 +Jimenez 10.8 + Mata 9.9 D. Pivetta 11 + Jimenez 10.8 + Mata 9.9 + R Hernandez 6.8
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It's hard to know anyone's norm after just 350 PAs, plus it's scattered over 2 seasons. Using minor league numbers is not wise. His career OPS is.745, but my guess is most players who stick around long enough to reach large sample sizes, improve on their first numbers out of the gait. I'm thinking Dalbec might settle around .760 to .820.
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I'm guilty of saying things like, "Why demote Dalbec after hitting .830 over his last 80 PAs?" I guess I could argue he is returning to his norm, as one could argue his previous 2 month slump was not his norm. The hard part is us not really knowing who the real Dalbec is. .
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I totally agree. His eye is on very long sustainability. Theo was like that and later admitted he lost sight of that, at times. This does not mean times occur where a big move or two may be needed to "get a team over the hump" at a slight expense to the future.
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Are there studies on slumps and hot streaks? Take a 750 OPS hitter. If he's hit .500 in the last 2-3 weeks, is he more, the same or less likely to hit over.750 in the next 2-3 weeks. Same with hitting 1.000 for 2-3 weeks.
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Most of the time, yes, but with the random nature of baseball and somewhat small and scattered sample sizes, once can expect variations from players' norms. Not everyone is going to hit exactly the same as their career norm in clutch situations any more that they would in any randomly picked sample size. It would be like saying hitting well on Mondays is a repeatable skill. Now, with all this being said, I do think there may be a slight influence on a player's numbers under the intense pressure of a bases loaded, 2 out situation in the 9th inning. Some players may be able to stay calm and focused more than others, and maybe their personality allows that to be repeatable, but with hitting a baseball being so hard to do, that influence is likely very close to negligible. You don't make MLB being someone who wilts under pressure.
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That's the unknown. Maybe Bloom thinks some of his prospects are wildly over-rated. I'm pretty certain there are some wide ranges of prospect evaluation among GMs. Maybe not many, but some, and all it takes is one GM to really like someone Bloom likes way less. We don't know who those prospects might be. I'd love to see Bloom's prospect ranking chart, if he even has one. Another factor is Bloom's vision on who will be on next year's 40 man roster. With pending FA signings and Rule 5 additions, he may identify 1-3 players that have some value, and decide to trade them now, rather than lose them, this winter.
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Exactly. Denying Clutch is a repeatable skill is not denying that clutch hits and stretches occur.
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Good read and solid proof.
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I doubt a package of Downs, Mata, Jimenez and R Hernandez gets it done, and I'm not sure I give that up for 1.3 years of Berrios.
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2021 MLB draft
moonslav59 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Why would a guy like him last 11 rounds? -
There are years and windows of opportunity where focusing a little more on the present than the long term makes some sense. The key is not taking that to an extreme, like I believe DD did. Thank God it worked, and we had 3 years of very exciting baseball to watch and including a fantastic 2018 year. I don't think now is that time. Our window has just opened, and if we do this right, this window can stay open for 2-3 years or even longer, if Bloom is who I think he is.
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Remember all the Kike bashing over the first two months? So many people think that all players will follow the trend they have been in over their most recent 2 weeks, 2 months and for some even 2 days.
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And it's harder for pitchers, because they are facing better hitters and managers pulling out all the stops.
