moonslav59

I remember the old debate clearly, and you never answered my questions and points then, either. It’s hopeless. You change fangraphs terminology to your own terms and act like you’ve proven something. Answer just one question. Just one. Does average mean about as many players are better as worse or not?

Where is “average” on this chart? The middle one? 1.75 To 2.3? If that is what you believe then out of the hundreds of RPers that pitch every season, only very few are average or better. I think your idea of average is not shared by most of the world. From 2017-2019, there were an average of 16 RPers with a WAR above 1.75. That means, according to you (not fangraphs, since they don’t qualify average) only 16 RPers are average or better- out of over 200 pitchers.

Nobody is disputing it’s a different situation. The point is, if you can see the same variations in other different situations, how can anyone know the reason for one has to be the pressure and not some other reason similar to the other wide disparity examples. Players can put up wildly different numbers in some rather large sample sizes, and the reasons can be multiple or unknown. That’s plain common sense. Just because the playoffs are unique, does not prove the uniqueness is or has to be the reason for a wide disparity in results. That’s the common sense conclusion.

I saw those charts the first time you talked about them. I don’t see anything that says a 1.0 WAR by a RPer is below average or any mention of the word mediocre. It talks about “role players” and “scrubs” but not what the average RPer looks like. Besides, what makes these charts the “facts” you say backs up your opinion? They are not comparing one player to the rest in their charts or terminology.

You just said nobody disputes my last paragraph, then you dispute it. Can you see why it’s hard to follow your train of thought? Here are but a few sample sizes as big as the playoff one that also show a 1.50 ERA differential: 3 seasons have ERAs 1.50 or more apart. There are several opposing teams Kershaw has faced that he has an ERA 1.50 apart. There are likely others if I look hard enough.

So what is the reason for the other poor samples? What does common sense tell you? Couldn’t that reason also be the same for the other poor playoff sample or some reason we don’t even know? Can’t common sense also mean that maybe there is not one reason or even an over riding one? Maybe there is no reason at all, other than just plain bad random luck? Common sense says there is no way to know for certain. Opinion means you can choose believe there is a reason or over riding reason.

I’ve looked at the fangraphs charts. Provide the link to the one you are talking about

1.0 fWAR by a RPer is not average. If it was about half the RPers would have more and half less. That’s what average means. A 1.0 WAR might be average for a MLB player but not for a RPer. That’s where your reasoning takes a wrong turn. Sorry, but that’s just common sense. Players go 189 IP with wildly differing numbers. Just because one sample size is 189 innings does not prove the reason for being good or bad. Sorry, that has nothing to do with common sense. Kershaw, himself has large sample sizes of very different results, not just the playoff one.

Wow, that’s what I called. Blind squirrel.

I guess there is talk of adding a floor of $100M and having the first line around $180M, but depending on the penalties and what the second and third lines are and mean, it’s hard to know for sure. That might be one reason we stayed low and signed so many one year deals.

I’m pretty certain we go over and maybe right up to the second line. The JD situation may affect us keeping Schwarber or not, but with so much money coming off the books after 2022, I can see us keeping both, giving ERod a QO and still adding another solid pitcher at a high cost.

No doubt! By any criteria worth a grain of salt.

Me, too, and Kike in CF, JD at DH and Schwarber at 1B. Can we try it just once before some else gets hurt?

Average, meaning the league average or maybe the median? Every team has about 7 RPers. That’s about 210 total, which was the sample sizes I provided for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2017 to 2018, 2019 to 2020 and 2017 tp 2020. I used your stat of choice: fWAR, and Barnes placed way above average in every sample size. Doesn’t common sense show he is better than mediocre by your own methodology? There is no way a 1.1 WAR is average for a RPer. Now, if you want to talk OPS against, WHIP or ERA-, the stats I use, then Barnes looks closer to average than fWAR, but you chose the tool, not me. On clutch, isn’t it common sense to think that since players go hot and cold for many reasons or no reasons at all during the regular season, those could be the same reasons for going hot or cold in the playoffs? Since the pitcher you chose to prove beyond any doubt has had sample sizes as large as his playoffs size with very similar numbers and he has shown he performs better than his norm in high pressure situations in a huge sample size in the regular season, how does “common sense” lead anyone to conclude the reason has to be and can only be the extra pressure. Of course, it could be, but no way does common sense show it’s a sure thing. That’s not how common sense works. It’s uncommon.

So, you imply those who disagree don't share your good common sense. BTW, how do you define the term mediocre?

Tie games in the 9th or 10th don't happen much, but when it does, the closer is brought in quite a bit. I don't have percentages, and I'm not sure how often it happens, but I've seen it, often enough to not be a rarity.

It happens. Just look at any closer's game logs. Sometimes in the bottom of the 9th and 10th of tied games, too.

It's weird that Papelbon actually had better 8th inning numbers, yet we are supposed to believe that Kimbrel could not handle the lesser pressure of the 8th and did way worse in the 8th than the 9th. Do we have a name for people who do much worse in slightly less pressure situations? Kimbrel .485 in 9th .641 in 8th

So, the guy who comes in with the bases loaded and no outs in the 8th and up 2, and gets out of the jam with no runs allowed, while the closer comes into a clean 9th inning and allows a run but no more. The closer gets the save and the real hero gets a hold. Nice stat. Don't get me going on the 3 inning save.

If the game is tied into the top of the 9th or 10th, they are often used, but yes, rarely on other occasions.

My chart only includes RP'ers in the years and time frames chosen. What are you talking about "normalizing?" You chose fWAR, not me. It's not my stat of choice. The stats I use actually shows Barnes worse than fWAR. I'm not trying to claim he's top 20% or even 25%. I'm just showing your stat of choice, this time, shows he was better than his peers, which means better than mediocre by definition. (I go by Webster not fangraphs normalization charts or whatever you claim when determining what mediocre means). IMO, he was above average by enough to place him out of the mediocre tier from 2017-2020. It's not by a lot, but he's not mediocre, and your stat, fWAR, shows he was not mediocre. Now, you're trying to claim he's in the 5th lowest tier out of 7? The goalposts never stop moving.

[B]Simply Biased.[/b]

Plus, the criteria is highly questionable.

Another way of looking at how Barnes compared to other RP'er since 2017 would be to look year by year. This way, you don't lose pitchers who just started in 2018 or missed a year or two. Out of these amount of pitchers with 40+ IP by season, here is where Barnes ranked in fWAR by RP'ers each year. 2017: 57th out of 192 (1.0 fWAR) TOP 3rd Tier 2018: 38th out of 191 (1.2 fWAR) Top 4th Tier and nearly top 5th Tier (2017-2018 combined: 32nd out or 201 with 70+ IP) Top 6th Tier! 2019 23rd out of 197 (1.3 fWAR) Top 8th Tier! 2019-2020 combined: 50th out of 198 with 50+ IP Nearly Top 4th Tier 2017-2020 (110+ IP) 26th out of 187 When you use the word "mediocre" you imply as compared to others. Using fWAR, not my stat of choice, I can't see how Barnes could be viewed as "mediocre" from 2017-2020. Year by year- NO, every 2 years, NO, all years combined: NO, but fangraphs says 1.1 WAR is "mediocre," so that's the end of discussion. 2019-2020 combined

He was tremendous. Even after he left, he was good for a while.