moonslav59

BAbip 2018: .295 2021 .325

But, way worse numbers. While having less IP can be a blessing, it can also be a warning about durability and stamina. He's not had over 185 IP since 2017. He has had a couple non great years since 2016: 4.37/1.308 in 2016 5.54/1.476 in 2018 His best 3 seasons were 2017, 2019 and 2021. (He did not pitch in 2020.) His only 2 200 IP seasons were 2016 & 2017. His 1.145 WHIP in 2021 might be an outlier, as his prvious best was 1.289 way back in '16. His career WHIP is 1.266. The 3.63 ERA looks nice, and the 3.49 FIP is not bad, but it's also not close to what Price looked like at the time of his signing. Stroman will turn 31, next May. Price was about the same age at signing time, but he was coming off a 3 year average of 3.01/1.083 with an FIP of 2.85.) No, Stroman won't get Price money, but he might get close to 7 years, and he just does not seem like the guy you wait several years to decide to splurge on.

I thought the same thing.

I know what you said, and I pointed out that Verdugo did well in 2019 and 2020, possibly countering your claim of a 1 year aberration. (BTW, his 2019 season had more PAs than 2020, and 2019-2020 combined just about equal 2021's PAs- 598-595. .827 OPS to .777) I tend to expect improvement as players like Devers and Bogey near or reach peak prime years. My point about Devers being slightly better in 2019 but worse in '18 and '20 is weak, but to me, Bogey's 2021 was not in line with his 2028-2020 numbers, except for fWAR. Your point about fWar was noted and has merit. I still think Bogey was below his recent average by enough to say so, but fWAR says otherwise.

I think Shaw represented a better chance at getting on base than Plawecki. Not by much, but if he sat on his hands, he'd be bashed for that, too.

I likely gets a team to give him 6 years. I'd love getting him, but I don't want another burden like Price.

My guess is they put Whitlock into the 4 slot, Houck as the closer and spend on a solid #2 starter, a solid set up man and a pitching depth pitcher that hopefully works out better than Perez. We spend some on a utility infielder and maybe trade Vaz or Bogey (possibly adding Duran or 1 from Dalbec/Casas) and spend to fill their opening(s).

But, you're not pining.

Starting Eovaldi on short rest, Sunday, if needed, makes sense, but I do not think it is wise to start Sale, tomorrow on short rest. He can barely get past 60-65 pitches, as it is. I might start Eovaldi Sunday and use Sale for 3 innings in relief- or flip who starts and relieves. The Saturday game looks like Seabold and or Houck. Hopefully Whitlock will be ready, too.

We needed base runners not sac flies or grounders that moved runners over. I'm not saying PH'ing Shaw was right or wrong, or not finding a time for Dalbec to PH, either. I'm not sure anything Cora might have done differently would have changed anything, last night. This team is snake-bitten.

Some FWAR Numbers: 7.5 Scherzer 2018 6.7 Lynn 2019 6.6 Verlander 2018 6.5 Scherzer 2019 6.4 Verlander 2019 6.0 Morton 2019 5.4 Greinke 2019 5.4 Scherzer 2021 4.5 Morton 2021 4.0 Lynn 2021 3.8 Wainwright 2021 2.3 Sabathia 2018 1.7 R Hill 2021 1.3 Greinke 2021 Maybe 30 is the new 28 and 34 is the new 32... Top fWAR 2018-2021 combined 23.5 deGrom (Ages 30-33) 21.1 Scherzer (33-36) 20.0 Cole (27-30) 18.0 Wheeler (28-31) 15.4 A Nola (25-28) 14.8 L Lynn (31-34) 14.2 Morton (34-37) 14.0 Buehler 13.9 Bieber 13.3 Bauer 13.2 Marquez 13.0 Verlander (35-37- missed 2021 at age 38) 15. Corbin 11.9 16. Kershaw 11.7 (30-33) 17. Greinke 11.7 (34-37)

Scherzer's declining years have blown other prime pitchers away.

Is Stroman really the type of guy you go David Price on? I'm not saying he'll get $30M x 7, but he'll be the highest paid FA pitcher we've signed, after Price, since Lackey. He might demand 6-7, but if we can get hi m for 4-5, I'd feel better. If it's $85M/3 for Scherzer vs $170M/6 for Stroman, I'd take Scherzer. What about Robbie Ray?

... only to possibly be traded.

If they both stay in the pen, we might be talking about 150 innings, total. Maybe Pina or whoever we get can do better than Plawecki with these two, and keep doing better with Eovaldi and Pivetta.

And ERod not being average, and Dugo not coming close to 2019-2020 combined numbers, and Bogey/Devers not being average when looking at recent 2-3 years not career, but other than them, yes, just Kike.

Here's a breakdown by 2 month increments: OPS in APR/MAY- JUN/July- AUG/SEP (150+ PAs over season) .946/.935/.760 Devers .984/.796/.823 JDM .938/.852/.777 Bogey .756*/.776/.935 Renfroe (*despite a .938 May) .646/.673/1.054 Dalbec .692/.856/.784 Kike .809/.692/.841 Verdugo .657/.641/.683 Vazquez .702/.881/ N/A Arroyo (9 PAs since July 19) .695/.848/.719 Plawecki N/A--NA-/.965 Schwarber As you can see, Vaz was the most consistent hitter, but too bad he was consistently bad. The big three had beg let downs in the final 2 months- JD in the middle two. Many others did their share.

Yes, I misled with that point.

I think the wrist injury was part of the big drop off, but I think it goes beyond that. He got a chance to rest it over the COVID stint, but it did not help.

My bad on Eovaldi. Kike's fWAR is better due to 110 more PAs, not really playing any better, but that is valuable, and your point is well-taken. Saying ERod's 2021 season is average based on fWAR only might be questionable. Look at bWAR: 1.8 2017 3.0 2018 6.1 2019 (3.5 average from 2017-2019) 1.6 2021 fWAR is heavily IP and K/BB influenced, which is fine but not everything. fangraphs also provides these numbers: ERA- 92 2017 86 2018 79 2019 109 2021 ERod's WHIP of 1.39 is a career high. To be fair, so is his BAbip (.365) which might show the Sox 2021 defense made this season seem below average. My point was that 2021 is not a clear career best for these 3, but cases can be made they are slightly their best years (Eovaldi's is career best- clearly).

I really try my hardest to not let 1 game or one week or month change my mind about a certain player or team strategy, but I am leaning towards these suggestion for winter moves and upgrades. I'm not going to get into the financial details, but my suggestions should not put us way over the current lux tax structure. 2022 Sox Catcher: lose Vaz's $7M option somehow. Acquire a defensive catcher known to do well with relationships with pitchers. 1B: I know the low cost Dalbec looks like a no-brainer, and Casas may make it to the bigs in 2022, but I'm thinking maybe it's time to move Devers to 1B. I'm okay with working hard with him over the winter and giving him one more year at 3B, so as of now, I'm going with Dalbec/Casas at 1B in 2022. 2B: I like Arroyo and would like to see us re-sign Iggy as the utility infielder and 2Bman. 3B: Devers for one last chance at 3B. SS: Look to trade Bogey but don't give him away. Then, sign whoever we think is the best defender at SS from Baez, Semien, Story but probably not Correa, as he may cost too much. (Not that these guys will come cheap, but saving money on Bogey will help off set this signing.) LF: Verdugo as a platoon. I'd play renfroe in LF vs LHPs and find a good defensive RF'er who hits righties well (see RF). CF: Kike FULL TIME! (This is my strongest held belief.) RF: Renfroe and a better defender who hits RHPs very well. (I do not think Duran is a good enough defender to fill this role or the back-up CF role. He might be our best trade bait.) DH: I'd look to trade JD, pay part of his salary and re-sign Schwarber. Pitching, pitching, PITCHING! Hopefully replacing JD with Schwarber and adding a SS won't break the bank, because I'd like to see major improvements to the pitching staff. Trading Bogey, JD and maybe Duran or one from Dalbec/Casas could land us cost-effective pitchers, but I have no idea who we might get for any of these players. The good thing about the change over needed for 2022 is that the players we lose or have options on were not major pluses to this year's team. ERod pitched well in the second half, and Ottavino put up some nice OPS Agaisnt numbers, but neither will be sorely missed. Their slots will need to be filled, however, as will the other staring rotation slot held by Perz/Richards/Houck. The ERod QO choice may be a closer call than many think it is, but one year deals are often overpays due to the lesser risk. For argument's sake, let's say we do not offer him a QO or he refuses it, and his slot is open. We say no to the Perez and Richards options. We'll count Ottavino and Robles, who will be FAs, as goners. The Houck-Whitlock 2022 role debate will take up much of the winter talk, here and across Sox Nation. IMO, Houck looks better suited for the pen- maybe as a very cheap closer. Whitlock looks more like a starter, and good starters are more expensive than good RP'ers, so I can see the argument for starting him, next year. Whatever choice is made will dictate a lot about who we target for upgrades to the staff. For argument's sake, I'm going to place both in the pen, just for this scenario. That leaves this as a foundation: (Note: I'm always for adding SP'er to the top 1 or 2 slots not looking for "good 5th starters," but I realize the budget doesn't always allow this.) SP1. _____________ (Maybe acquire an aging stud, so the deal is shorter) SP2. Sale SP3. Eovaldi SP4. _____________ (I'd like to see a solid #3 type here) SP5. Pivetta SP6. Seabold (___. Crawford/Winckowski/ German/ Espinal/ Bello/Groome/Murphy/Santos) RP1. Houck RP2. Whitlock RP3. ______ RP4. Barnes RP5. Taylor RP6. DHern RP7. Sawamura RP8. Brasier/Davis (Valdez/ Bazardo/Feltman/Ort/Schreiber or converted SP'er) That's basically 3-4 pitchers with one being a depth signing. I think we can get this done without breaking the bank, but maybe Henry will okay breaking the bank, this winter.

Actually, Kike and Eovaldi have had equal or better seasons, so one could argue they are not having "career years," this year. Kike: No, he's never havd over 462 PAs, before and he's going to approack 590, this year, but he had more homers in 2018 (21) and higeher OPS twice (2018 and 2015) than this year. Eovaldi: His 2013 season was clearly as good, but it was long ago. 199.2 IP 3.39 ERA His 2018 season was similar. His shortened 2020 season saw a better ERA, ERA+ and similar WHIP. Many of our prime or approaching prime players declined from 2019 or 2018. .877 Devers (.916 in 2019) .860 Bogey (.907 from 2018-2020 combined) .777 Dugo (.827 from 2019-2020 combined) .659 Vaz (.798 from 2019-2020 combined) JD is not entering prime, but he dropped off, a lot, from his 2014 to 2019 numbers. I'd also point out ERod's ERA+: 109 2017 116 2018 128 2019 n/a 2020 96 2021 (110 career) That is not "average." We have some legitimate "what ifs" to say this team could have and should have been better. I won't argue this point, however, because we were remarkably healthy and saw big upticks from Pivetta, Perez over his first 12 starts, and better thaan expected showings from Renfroe, Plawecki, Iggy, Shaw, Whitlock, Taylor, Rios and Brasier at the last minute.

I agree with everything, here, except your “from day one” thing. You changed your view when the Sox were riding high and your guys were imploding, but it’s no biggie. I appreciate an outsiders view, but I’ll never be able to wish you luck. I’m hoping you implode like you have several times, this year. With the right moves, this winter, even you will change your view about 4th place.

1. How was this season “as usual?” You never answer Ed that. 2. Yes, Perez and Richards dropped off severely, but there was always the plan that Sale would replace one, and Houck’s limited innings might be bunched as a later season starter. ERod did way better second half. Eovaldi and Pivetta remained pretty steady. Sale and Houck did not go deep into games but were an improvement over the first half starters they replaced. 3. The pen got worse- way worse. They carried the team for almost 4 months, but they broke down badly. I’m not sure it was overuse due to the lack of starter innings as the season wore on. We carried 13-14 pitchers almost all year, and shuffled minor leaguers in frequently. 4. Our defense was bad from start to finish, but it seemed like their mistakes hurt more in the second half. 5. We stopped hitting 3 run homers and more solo blasts. 6. We kept getting men on base, but we declined in big hits and increased DPs. One can easily view the first part of the season as a mirage, or a long period where everything went right, but we regressed to the norm or lost our mojo, but I still think this was a seriously flawed but good team deserving an excellent shot at making the playoffs. We improved in many areas and learned where we still need progress. We have a lot of players coming off the books and options on others. Our farm looks stronger and deeper than it has in years. While much of the farm is too far away to help in ‘22, it still is a reason to think we are moving in the right direction. Two of our best pitchers, this year, Houck and Whitlock, were in the minors before this season. When was the last time we said that? There are still 3 games left, and we’re tied. That should be viewed as a good thing, except for the fact that the last week has been a catastrophe. It seems like a month ago, we won 7 straight, but that was just last week! We thought the easier ending schedule could give an edge Maybe we didn’t deserve, and maybe the Nats will roll over for us, but now we have to hope other teams lose, too, and that sucks. I still like our chances. There are reasons why the Jays and Ms aren’t ahead of us, already. They have flaws, too- as do the Yanks. I’m still gonna watch every pitch of every game and feel confident we can win, but this past week has been brutal on all of us Sox fans. Keep the faith. Brighter days ahead!

Good advice.