moonslav59

Chavis actually looked good on defense in 2020, too, but Marwin will beat him out, when healthy.

Let's say we have Arroyo healthy and do not trade for a 1Bman. We might see this rotation. (Bogey needs some time off to heal his wrist.) Vaz & Plawecki catch JD, Renfroe, Devers and Dugo play FT (maybe get a rest every 15-20 games.) That leaves this: 1B: Dalbec 4-5 of 10 games, Kike 5-6 of 10 2B: Arroyo 8 of 10, Kike 2 of 10 CF: Duran 8 of 10, Kike 2 of 10 SS: Bogey 8 of 10 for a while, then back to FT/ Arroyo or Kike at SS 2 of 10 games. Basically everyone but Dalbec plays 8-9 games out of 10.

I'm not sure Marwin and Arroyo will be back in August. I think both need to return to possibly squeeze Duran out.

Marwin is Cora's guy. That's who it will be, assuming he's healthy. Depending on 12 or 13 pitchers, our bench will be: Plawecki Arroyo or Duran (the other starts) Marwin If we go 4 bench players, I think it will likely be Santana, but I'd prefer Cordero then Chavis.

I could see us getting Santana. Someone like Cron might be a fall back.

I'd trade Richards with some cash for scraps. Save a little money. Trade some prospects we don't think fit our long term plans for a a decent SP'er (better than Perez/Richards). If we have some cash left over, try and pick up a cheap 1Bman that can improve on Dalbec or platoon with him. I think we can do all this and stay under the tax line, but going over would not hurt us, too much. (We might also trade Perez for scraps, save some more money, and trade for a RP'er.)

Yes, we aren't trading JD or Dugo, but his point was who would you trade before the other. With JD's contract and contract uncertainty, and Dugo's years of team control, I'd have to agree on Dugo. Both will be here all this season.

Starters will cost more, even salary dump types, but that's what we need.

Ottavino clsoes Whiltock and Houck are the 8th inning set up men, in this scenario. Maybe Valdez can take on their previous roles.

I'm not sure our pen needs tweaking. With Valdez and Houck back in the fold and Sawamura coming back at some point, we may be fine, here. Plus, when Sale comes back, a starter will be pushed to the pen or maybe even traded. I think our biggest need is SP'er with 1B a second priority. Even with Sale added, the questions surrounding ERod and his head aches and COVID recovery linger, but perhaps the biggest worry is what we expect from Perez & Richards (and to some extent Pivetta) going forward. Here are the pessimistic, cherry-picked numbers on these 3 starters: After first 11 starts (1/3 season) Perez 5.94 ERA/ 1.003 OPS Against in last 9 starts (3.09/.658 first 11 starts) (1.98/.587 in 7 starts 4/24 to 6/7) Richards 6.99 ERA/.990 OPS Against in last 8 starts (3.75/.749 first 11 starts) Pivetta 5.44 ERA/ .853 OPS Againstin last 9 starts) (3.77/.657 in first 11 starts) I think we can stick with Pivetta as our #4 or #5, but I think Richards and/or Perez should be demoted to the pen or traded to make room for Sale and a pitcher we acquire by trade. I'm not for trimming our pitcher choices: I'm for improving them. We should not count on Sale as being our ace in August or September. We should cover our bases with ERod. We should improve on Richards and/or Perez. I'm not thinking we will shoot for the moon on someone like Scherzer or Berrios, but we should be able to get someone who is an upgrade over the recent productivity we've gotten fro Richards and Perez. Reaching for some sort of bright spot on these two, I can come up with this: 5.17/.824 Richards in his last 3 starts. 3.55/.845 Perez in his last 7 starts, but 4.74/.937 last 4 starts. The deadline is 4 pm on the 30th. How much more will we find out about these two, before it's too late? We should make a move to replace at least one of these two- maybe both. Putting one in the pen may help, but who get's squeezed out? Houck could start, but he looks like a great pen piece. Our 100% Healthy Staff: Sale Eovaldi ERod Pivetta Perez Richards Barnes Ottavino Whitlock Houck Taylor DHern Valdez Sawamura (14th pitcher) Rios Andriese Workman Bazardo Brasier Seabold If we add a pitcher without dealing one, who goes? I realize someone may be on the IL, but it looks like we need to find a place for 2-3 pitchers, once we add Sale and a traded pitcher.

How did we not know this before drafting him?

Moving goalposts again. Just stop. Let’s get back to the 2021 Sox.

Why do you assume I don’t look at the charts? I don’t have to agree with everything fangraphs and br print, lord knows you don’t, otherwise you’d more respect Porcello’s 19th place ranking. We both have different views. I’m not inventing my own way of rating anyone. I’ve always looked in context.

Can you try to answer my question?

When you say below average, I look to see if there are about as many pitchers ahead as behind. Only counting 150 starters a year is being generous to all the SPers that were worse- so bad they never reached enough inning to qualify. When you compare him to other starters of his era, he was average in some categories and above average in others and top tier in fwAR. Average does not mean 2 out of 3 pitchers are worse than you. IMO. We’ve beaten this subject to death.

If anyone ever gives up on a Sox game again, I won't know what to say. These guys are amazing! Valdez was a big key, and it's great to see Verdugo start heating up. Remember when we used to say this team had 4 good hitters and nobody else? Let's see Verdugo make it 4 again, and Kike make it 5, though a tough night for him. This season is magical.

Houck can be a monster in the pen. I think Gray is better than Richards and Perez, but it's not a sure bet he'll be better the last 2 months. If ERod needs to go on the IL, Gray would be a big help.

Where do you get the average or 1.9 BWAR? Just curious.

He certainly was not good if you combined those 5 of 6 years.

Let's go over every pitcher from 2009-2020, season by season. That's 12 seasons x 150 pitchers (5 per team x 30 teams.) That's 1800 sample sizes of the top 150 pitchers over 12 years. Guess how many had a 2.6 fWAR out of over 1800 samples? It's 555. So a 2.6 fWAR would place you in the upper third tier (600-600-600). If being in the upper third is mediocre, then our issue is not with Porcello. It's what you and others see as being mediocre vs good. Here's the breakdown Top 3rd 150 samples at 4.4 and above 150 from 3.4 to 4.4 150 from 2.8 to 3.4 150 from 2.4 to 2.8 Middle 3rd: 150 from 2.1 to 2.4 150 from 1.7 to 2.1 150 from 1.4 to 1.7 150 from 1.1 to 1.4 Middle of the middle 1.1 to 1.7 Lower 3rd: 0.7 to 1.1 0.3 to 0.7 0.0 to 0.3 -1.6 to 0.0

From 2009-2020 there were 150 pitchers with 800+ IP. That's 5 pitchers per team x 30 teams (150). This may be a flawed method of determining a pitcher's value in terms of context and how other starters were doing during his era. There are many pitchers in that era that did not reach 800 IP. My guess is most were worse than these 150, but I'm sure some were better, since their career did not overlap fully with 2009-2020, of their career started after 2009, and they have not pitched 80 innings, yet. If you go by the top 30 are #1's, 31-60 is #2's, 61-90 is #3's..., here's how Porcello ranks among his peers in these important categories: 19th fWAR (#1 starter) 81st xFIP- (#3 starter) 85th SIERA (#3 starter) 85th K-BB% (#3) 89th WHIP (#3) 95th ERA- (#4) 140th in BAbip (.308) could be an indicator he had poor fielding behind him and/or pitched in pitcher's parks more often than others. This is backed up by his low LD% (73rd ranked) and hard hit% (57th ranked).

Bogey could probably use 7-10 days off, but with no Arroyo or Marwin it’s not easy.

I’d say much better. He was our 1-2 starter for a big chunk of the season.

But WAR, OPS against and xFIP show he’s much better than average.

Of course he may hit better or much better than .600. I expect him to. I only said Jeter will not be called up if he keeps hitting .600. He will be added to the 40 man, this winter.