moonslav59

I keep expecting ERod to "get over" the whole COVID and side effect issues. He starts to look good, then it gets messy, then he's back to looking like he's starting to turn it around, again. I try to cut his some slack. I mean, the team just plain won a whole bunch of times, when he pitched for the 2 seasons before the mess that was 2020. The team went 19-4 and 26-8 in his starts, those two years. That's 45-12! I know winning is a team stat, but he must have been doing something right, because he was not leading the team in run support, those 2 years. As bad as he has looked, this year, we are 15-9in his starts, which included winning 5 of his first 6 starts. At the point, the team had gone 50-13 in his last 63 starts. They've gone 10-8 afterwards. I'm not defending the guy. He's been a mess way too often, this year, but he did have some serious COVID-related health issues that nobody really knows the long term effects can be.

Well, we finally have Munoz on the team and playing, Duran in the line-up, too, so let's see what all the clamoring was about!

Dalbec was lost before he was found, and it didn't take 3 games off. I'm glad you are not our manager. (I'm glad I'm not, either...lol)

I already said sit him one game "maybe." What are you asking? No way JD sits 3 games, unless he's hurt. No way, and no way any manager does that to a vet with his pedigree. Here are just 2 quick examples I found from this year. Renfroe, a lesser player than JD at the time, had played nearly every game from April 13 to April 30th. He was never given more than 1 game off, despite seeing his OPS fall to .485 at the end of April. Did Cora bench him over a worse streak that JD's current one? Hell, no. He played him the next game and every one after for more than 2 weeks. Good thing he did. He had a .942 OPS the next 13 games. Devers has a higher stature than Hunter, so maybe he's a better comp than Renfore. Devers started the year with a .296 OPS after 5 games and wasn't benched, thank God! He hit 5 HRs in his next 4 games. Later, he had a 6 game slump of .392 (OPS). He went 2 for 4 the next game, then got one day off. That's it. As streaky and slumpy as Dalbec has been, I only found one time he was given 3 games off, and that was after he had just gone 4 for 7 with an HR in his previous 2 games. It just does not happen, and for good reason. Knee jerk managing is losing managing.

Who is this "you" you are referring to? It's rarely done over 9 game sample sizes, and it's hardly ever a 3 game long benching for proven vets.

So, who was DFA'd to put Munoz on the 40?

We finally get to see Schwarber at 1B, but half the rest of the team is out. Damn!

Why do you continuously think players always repeat what they have done in their most recent small sample size? Had Cora only played the hot hands, Dalbec would never have gotten a chance to show he was the next hot hand. Renfroe sucked for all of April, but Cora stuck with him. Devers has had some very bad slumps, then, suddenly, BAM! You don't bench a proven vet over as silly 9 game sample size. Could he use a day off? Maybe- maybe not. Maybe today would be the day he starts his next hot streak. I'd rather see Bogey rest his wrist a few days, but no way would I sit either one for 3 days. BTW, right before JD's horrific 9 game slump, he hit 1.394 in 6 games. Why choose 9 games? Because that's the worst? Go back 16 games and he has 11 RBI, which comes to 110 per 160. (See, I can cherry-pick, too.)

He was pretty much unstoppable from 2013 to 2018, with very little differentiation by high vs not so high velocity periods. Sure, his 2018 ERA was his lowest at 2.11, but he had a 2.17 ERA in 2014. Sure, his best WHIP was 2018 at 0.861, but he's had 2 seasons under 0.970 and many just over 1.000. What was missing from 2018 was the innings and innings per start that made him just as dominant in the non super-high velo days. 2018 was his lowest career IP/GS season at 5.9. He had reached 7.1 twice and 6.7 three times. That has real value. Look, I'm not going to argue that he wasn't most dominant in 2018, but he was lights out for many seasons before 2018, and the extra innings pitched evened the score. (He actually had a higher fWAR in 2017: 7.6 to 6.2.) You, as much as anyone, know that TJS does not always sap a pitchers velo. Some have comeback to throw as hard and even harder, but that was not my point. Sale was super dominant before we even traded for him and well before his velo bumped up a mph or two. Sale has yet to prove he's his old self, but you have to admit, he's doing much better than you expected. (I won't even bring up your Sevy-Sale comp made this past winter.)

A 9 game slump warrants a 3 day benching? Not even Dalbec got that. Marwin never got that. Let's do it to the consummate vet. Man, you guys are brutal!

Can't agree, sorry. The words "valuable" and Marwin should not be in the same sentence. BTW, no team in MLB needs a glove only utility guy more than the Sox.

I think people are being harsh on JD and his slump. Of course, we'd all love to see the .950+ JD, again, but he's really been very consistently around .800 from May until just very recently. It's not fair to imply his slump has been since the allstar break. He was at .877 from the break to August 15th (29 games and 123 PAs). His slump is 9 games lone. .305 last 9 games, which brings his post all star numbers to .742. I'll take that .877, again, and my guess is, we'll see it soon. From June 29 to today he's at .801. It's all about when you choose the time frame. When you have a 1.189 OPS on May 1st, it's hard to keep it from declining, and as people watch it decline, they assume you are "slumping." While .770 is viewed as a slump for JD, and that is disappointing to me, it's not really bad. (14 HRs and 53 RBI in 93 games. Some perspective: the guy hit .819 from May 2nd until 9 days ago, and saw his OPS fall 285 points! (from 1.189 to .904.) Yes, his OPS was .904 a little over a week ago. I'm not saying I'm all aboard the extend JD bandwagon; I'm not. I'm just saying, let's cut the guy some slack.

God, no!

I think many posters were just preaching caution on Duran or thinking we should trust Sox management on when Duran was ready. It wasn't meant to be a put-down on him. Yes, some were critical, but most of us looked forward to his call-up and were confident he'd do well (eventually). I have not lost any confidence in him over this tiny sample size.

How Sox starters rank in fWAR: 5. Eovaldi 4.4 26. ERod 2.9 65. Pivetta 1.7 121. Perez 0.5 128. Richards 0.4 (163 Starting Pitchers with 50 + IP) Pen 15. Whitlock 1.4 20. Barnes 1.3 25. Ottavino 1.1 44. Taylor 0.8 166. D Hern -0.1 171. Andriese -0.1 175. Valdez -0.1 197. Sawamura -0.4 200. Robles -0.5 (207 pitchers with 30+ IP) Everyday Players: 12. Bogey 4.6 14. Devers 4.4 32. Kike 3.6 79. Schwarber 2.3 82. Verdugo 2.3 87. Martinez 2.2 120. Renfroe 1.7 169. Arroyo 1.2 (just 53 games) 251. Vaz 0.5 278. Plawecki 0.3 (49 games) 329. Dalbec 0.0 390. Santana -0.4 405. Marwin -0.6 415. Cordero -0.7 (430 players with 100+ PAs)

Collecting garbage for their trash cans.

Here's how I see it: The JD choice will set in motion a lot of what we can and will do. There are somethings we must do, no matter what he chooses, but the amount of money available would change depending on his $19.4M salary ($22M on lux tax) vs zero. We need a solid SP'er- hopefully a #1 or #2. We need a closer. We need starting pitcher depth and/or pen depth, depending on our plans for Whitlock & Houck. JD or not, we need another solid player that can play 1B, perhaps just vs RHP. No JD? We need a DH. That is a lot of needs that would be super expensive, if we filled them all by free agency. Here is where it gets tricky: we can either trade youth to fill a slot or two or count on filling one, maybe two, of these roles from within the system. I'm thinking Bloom & Co would love the second option to work, and they could hedge their best by signing some depth to "cover," in case an in system player fails... kinda like what Marwin and Santana were, this year- YUCK! Who are the most likely in system players to fill a key role? Dalbec has to be near the top of that list, even if just as a platoon 1Bman that can lessen the cost of needing a FT 1Bman. Houck and Whitlock look like the obvious choices to fill a SP'er slot or two or a SP'er and pen slot. Do we want to pencil one in as that solid #1 or #2 SP'er and the other as our 2022 closer? Maybe one, but both? (And I say maybe one with a lot of doubts.) I'd rather see Houck and Whitlock fill the #4 slot in the rotation and Ottavino's set-up slot. If they do better, then yeah for us! Duran does not really fill an area of need, assuming our OF is Verdugo, Kike and Renfroe, with Arroyo as our FT or near FT 2Bman. We'd need a 4th OF'er, and since Kike can play 2B when Arroyo is out or covering SS/3B or sitting as part of a Dalbec-Arroyo type platoon. We might decide to trade Duran. (I'm not for that idea- just sayin'.) So, IMO, we get a #1 or #2 SP and a closer, use Whitlock and Houck to fill the rest of our pitching high need areas and then decide on what to do about 1B/DH. Dalbec can fill a partial role and maybe improve enough to fill a FT need, but I do like the idea of keeping Schwarber- JD or not.

He was highly successful before he started "sitting upper 90's." From 2014 to the first half of 2018, Sale was "sitting on" ABOUT 93-95. 2015 & 2017 saw more above 95's, but not more than 93-95. In the middle of 2018, he started sitting on 95-97. Was he not a great pitchers with the CWS and before mid 2018 with the Sox? Why are you acting like he needs to return to peak to be great? Plus, he may very well return to peak. It might take a few starts, but he's already increasing his velo from his first start, this year. This last game looks totally in line with his whole career, except mid 2018. Look for yourself: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-sale/10603/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2014&end=2021&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

JD just turned 34. Many players already have sharply declined by 34. That being said, he doesn't have to be Nelson Cruz, who is 41, to get a decent 3-4 year deal. Cruz signed a 4 year deal for $57M at age 34. That would be a good comp for JD with inflation figured in. If you look at Nelson's numbers before that 4 year deal, they were way worse than JD's. .838 previous 4 years .801 previous 2 years

The guy has a 10 day slump, and we're talking benching him? Geesh!

This says it all. Our ideal line-up has to be: C: Vaz with Plawecki giving him plenty of rest. 1B: Dalbec vs LHPs/Schwarber vs RHPs 2B: Arroyo (maybe sits vs some LHPs as Schwarber plays OF and Kike 2B) 3B: Devers SS: Bogey (get his some extra rest by playing Arroyo at SS, when Kike is at 2B & Schwarber in the OF) LF: Verdugo (with Schwarber vs LHPs) CF: Kike (Verdugo vs some LHPs) RF: Renfroe (Maybe Schwarber when in parks with shorter RF's and a lefty pitching) DH: JD 1. Kike CF (some 2B) 2. Devers 3B 3. Bogey SS 4. Schwarber 1B/OF 5. JD DH 6. Renfroe RF 7. Verdugo LF/CF 8. Arroyo 2B v R/Dalbec 1B v L 9. Vaz

OPS Arroyo .777 Dalbec .740 Arroyo is a much better fielder, and moving Kike to CF improves our OF D and keeps JD out of the OF.

The 162 game sample given on B-R is based on 562 PAs. If you project it to 680 PAs, he's at 36 HRs and 114 RBI. 650 might be about 35 110.

Even for a 1Bman, a .783 career OPS and 24 HRs in his first 444 PAs, is very promising. (46 XBHs) I expected an OBP higher than .302, and there is still time for him to improve on that. His power is natural.

I do, too, and I've never been against trading some major farm pieces for the right players and at the right time. I could see us fill one of our major needs via trade: Solid SP'er, closer (may not be a pitcher who is a closer, now) or a 1Bman (assuming no Schwarber keep).