moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I always wanted this guy, but he serious decline scares me. .952 >> .889>> .776 over the last 3 years -
At the time of the trade he was, and Smith was way more than decent (on paper when healthy).
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I said decent RP'ers not great. We got Smith & Elias for Miley.
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Look at all the teams hurting for a starter. Look at the FA market. Look what pitchers are getting for salary now. $13.5M on a 1 year gamble like Buch is just what teams will overpay for.
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Close in age, but not quite as much in professional baseball experience due mainly to Vaz's lost season to injury. Leon started at age 18. He has 612 games in the minors plus 163 in the Venezuela League. That's 775! Although his first three seasons in MLB consisted of just 34 games combined. He did make it to the big show those three years (2012-2014). Vaz started at age 17 but only had 542 games in the minors and 106 in the PR League. That's 648 total- 127 less than Leon. He has 112 MLB games compared to Leon's 153. All totaled, he about 170 games behind Leon. They both have struggled with hitting, but Leon has had a history of some hot streaks (2012: .856 in the minors plus this year). Vaz had one good season way back in 2011 at single A.
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I totally agree, and I do think he will have a rough patch or two at the plate next year, but overall, I think his numbers will be fine. I'm worried more about the little injuries.
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2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I don't get the Shaw comps. The guy never had sustained hitting success in the minors. People act like he was expected to do great, and he struggled. To me, he's done exactly what his minor league numbers suggested he'd do- have a few short hot streaks and end up in the .700s. -
The thing that jumped out at me was the -28 WRC+ from the league average at 3B, and this included an .866 OPS from Shaw over the first two months of 2016! If he continues to hit like the final 4 months (.207/.270/.361), we're in deep doo doo! Hoping for Pablo to come through is not my idea of hope. It's more like a prayer. Hoping for Shaw to get hot to start the year again might be a better hope, so maybe by June, Moncada will be ready. I guess if you put the hope and prayer together the odds improve that one can do well enough to bridge the gap, but I'm not holding my breath. With the loss of Papi, I'm not sure we can carry any black holes anymore. Our offense at catcher is highly suspect as well, so we probably can't afford a negative 28 at 3B next year.
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I liked the idea too. Best record is influenced by strength of schedule.
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1) It won't take an Espi type for a pitcher with one year vs 2.4 years of control. 2) We can get something good for Buch- maybe a 3Bman or 2 decent RP'ers. 3) with the money saved on Buch plus the $10M we already have, we can sign Beltran and stay below the limit. So, trading Buch and then trading a blocked prospect like Swihart with maybe Hernandez, Owens & Hembree for Duffy would allow us to add Beltran, the two relievers we get for Buch plus Duffy. Now, I'm not sure what Duffy will make in arb, so maybe he's not a good example, but you get my drift, right? It would cost more for Shoemaker's 4 years of control, but I'm willing to give up more for 4 years of pre-prime years at a low cost. Pom was 2.3 years of essentially low cost, but not as low as Shoemaker will be for the next year or two (1st arb out of 4 coming up this winter).
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Danny Duffy (more like a 3 starter)- last arb year Matt Shoemaker (more like a 3 starter) Yordano Ventura Rubby de la Rosa
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We can trade for 6th starter or two who are paid far less than $13M.
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2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I learned that Henry is willing to spend like the Dodgers. -
Yes, we can't afford Buch in the pen. We already have one $13M RP'er. I always thought the idea of taking Buch's option and looking to trade him made sense. With the luxury limit so close, I think the odds have greatly improved Buch gets dealt.
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2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
moonslav59 replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Sounds desperate. -
More... -- The new CBA allows the league to issue extreme levels of punishment to teams that try to circumvent the international spending guidelines that are in place. Per Passan, MLB can penalize up to 50 percent of a team’s international bonus money through the 2021 season if it is found to be in violation of the new international signing rules. -- Teams can trade all of the new international bonus allotments, .Alternatively, they may boost their spending by adding up to 75% of their initial spending capacity. -- The top slot of the 2017 draft will fall to $7.4MM, though the overall spending availability in the domestic arena won’t change. -- The QO front, teams signing multiple qualifying offer-declining free agents would continue to sacrifice their next selection (or, in the case of a team over the luxury line, selections).
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I question whether Clay Buchholz would get three guaranteed years heading into his age 33 season coming off this year's disappointment. Worse pitchers have gotten close to that, and this is a tight market for SP'ers.
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Buch would probably get $50M/3 on the open market- maybe more in a year with no good starters. What if we paid $46M of the $58M owed? Pablo for $4M x 3.
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Yea, but the AL always won!
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If we go relatively light by signing Beltran for $19M x 2 and then 2 RP'ers for $5M each, we'll be over the limit by $19M. That leaves little room for mid-season additions and staying under the $20M over penalty.
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Agreed, but I bet they were hoping for maybe a $202M limit this year and $210 by 2018.
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Should the Red Sox trim payroll with a trade of Clay Buchholz? The only way I see us trading Buch is if we acquire another (hopefully better and/or more reliable) SP'er that costs less than $13.5M. Valencia hits lefties very well, so he'd be a nice match with Shaw or Pablo at 3B. How about we send Pablo plus $40M of his $58M owed plus Buch for Valencia and a prospect?
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I adsmit I don't know much about some of the players lost and gained, but I think losing Walker might hurt more than you think. I think he was poised to have his best year in 2017 or 2018. You better hope Segura's season was not a fluke. He was never that good before. I like the Valencia pick-up. He could be a sleeper.
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Going over by $20M adds 12% to the tax. Assuming we go over by $20M this year, our tax would be 42% (30 for second year plus 12 for going $20M over). While 42% might not seem too punitive, watch what happens next year: If we are $20M over this year, and we lose $20M in salary from Buch and Young, we're still over the limit before signing anyone. The rate next year would go to 50%. With arb raises and more signings, going over by $20M again would be a 62% tax (50% for the thrid year + 12% for going over $20M). I think the Sox will have to at least stay under $20M for 2018...maybe even 2017. Since we're just $10M from the limit now, we are pretty tight, if we want to sign a DH and 2 quality RP'ers for under $30M combined. We also may be restricted at the deadline, if we are close to $20M over by then..
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Yes, I forgot to mention arb raises after 2017: Pomeranz 3rd arb out of 3 Kelly 3rd arb out of 3 RRoss 3 of 3 Bogey, Holt, Holaday & Workman 2 of 3 JBJ 2 of 4 Betts, ERod, Wright, Smith & Shaw 1st of 3
