moonslav59

I’m pretty certain we go over and maybe right up to the second line. The JD situation may affect us keeping Schwarber or not, but with so much money coming off the books after 2022, I can see us keeping both, giving ERod a QO and still adding another solid pitcher at a high cost.

No doubt! By any criteria worth a grain of salt.

Me, too, and Kike in CF, JD at DH and Schwarber at 1B. Can we try it just once before some else gets hurt?

Average, meaning the league average or maybe the median? Every team has about 7 RPers. That’s about 210 total, which was the sample sizes I provided for 2017, 2018, 2019, 2017 to 2018, 2019 to 2020 and 2017 tp 2020. I used your stat of choice: fWAR, and Barnes placed way above average in every sample size. Doesn’t common sense show he is better than mediocre by your own methodology? There is no way a 1.1 WAR is average for a RPer. Now, if you want to talk OPS against, WHIP or ERA-, the stats I use, then Barnes looks closer to average than fWAR, but you chose the tool, not me. On clutch, isn’t it common sense to think that since players go hot and cold for many reasons or no reasons at all during the regular season, those could be the same reasons for going hot or cold in the playoffs? Since the pitcher you chose to prove beyond any doubt has had sample sizes as large as his playoffs size with very similar numbers and he has shown he performs better than his norm in high pressure situations in a huge sample size in the regular season, how does “common sense” lead anyone to conclude the reason has to be and can only be the extra pressure. Of course, it could be, but no way does common sense show it’s a sure thing. That’s not how common sense works. It’s uncommon.

So, you imply those who disagree don't share your good common sense. BTW, how do you define the term mediocre?

Tie games in the 9th or 10th don't happen much, but when it does, the closer is brought in quite a bit. I don't have percentages, and I'm not sure how often it happens, but I've seen it, often enough to not be a rarity.

It happens. Just look at any closer's game logs. Sometimes in the bottom of the 9th and 10th of tied games, too.

It's weird that Papelbon actually had better 8th inning numbers, yet we are supposed to believe that Kimbrel could not handle the lesser pressure of the 8th and did way worse in the 8th than the 9th. Do we have a name for people who do much worse in slightly less pressure situations? Kimbrel .485 in 9th .641 in 8th

So, the guy who comes in with the bases loaded and no outs in the 8th and up 2, and gets out of the jam with no runs allowed, while the closer comes into a clean 9th inning and allows a run but no more. The closer gets the save and the real hero gets a hold. Nice stat. Don't get me going on the 3 inning save.

If the game is tied into the top of the 9th or 10th, they are often used, but yes, rarely on other occasions.

My chart only includes RP'ers in the years and time frames chosen. What are you talking about "normalizing?" You chose fWAR, not me. It's not my stat of choice. The stats I use actually shows Barnes worse than fWAR. I'm not trying to claim he's top 20% or even 25%. I'm just showing your stat of choice, this time, shows he was better than his peers, which means better than mediocre by definition. (I go by Webster not fangraphs normalization charts or whatever you claim when determining what mediocre means). IMO, he was above average by enough to place him out of the mediocre tier from 2017-2020. It's not by a lot, but he's not mediocre, and your stat, fWAR, shows he was not mediocre. Now, you're trying to claim he's in the 5th lowest tier out of 7? The goalposts never stop moving.

[B]Simply Biased.[/b]

Plus, the criteria is highly questionable.

Another way of looking at how Barnes compared to other RP'er since 2017 would be to look year by year. This way, you don't lose pitchers who just started in 2018 or missed a year or two. Out of these amount of pitchers with 40+ IP by season, here is where Barnes ranked in fWAR by RP'ers each year. 2017: 57th out of 192 (1.0 fWAR) TOP 3rd Tier 2018: 38th out of 191 (1.2 fWAR) Top 4th Tier and nearly top 5th Tier (2017-2018 combined: 32nd out or 201 with 70+ IP) Top 6th Tier! 2019 23rd out of 197 (1.3 fWAR) Top 8th Tier! 2019-2020 combined: 50th out of 198 with 50+ IP Nearly Top 4th Tier 2017-2020 (110+ IP) 26th out of 187 When you use the word "mediocre" you imply as compared to others. Using fWAR, not my stat of choice, I can't see how Barnes could be viewed as "mediocre" from 2017-2020. Year by year- NO, every 2 years, NO, all years combined: NO, but fangraphs says 1.1 WAR is "mediocre," so that's the end of discussion. 2019-2020 combined

He was tremendous. Even after he left, he was good for a while.

You pick and choose your criteria. I use the same for everyone and every time. That's the difference. I noted that Barnes places 26th on the fWAR rankings. I never said that makes him the 2t6th best RP'er. Some RP'ers have smaller sample sizes, so had a lower fWAR. I et that. My data was only meant to show that some areas of evaluation show him to be better that mediocre. Certainly some show is was mediocre, too. If clutch is only the 9th, then why count Kershaw's innings 1-8? Again, you change the criteria based on what you want to believe. BTW, Barnes has more innings pitched in the 9th than the 7th or 1-5th combined. 128 IP in 8th .692 OPS Against 99 IP in the 9th .663 82 in the 7th .657 Seems he's done better in the ninth when compared to the 8th and his overall numbers, and his sample size is just 29 innings less than the 8th. Many facts show Barnes was better than mediocre from 2017 to 2020 (before 2021). Only a few show him to be mediocre. If you use his whole career numbers, he looks a bit worse, but to me the 2017-2020 sample size is large enough and more indicative of who he was before this strange season he's having now. I just wish you'd stick with the same criteria for every player you judge. It gets confusing and rather comical, at times.

Of all the many RP'ers in MLB from 2017-2020, Barnes placed 26th in fWAR. Someone wants you to believe this is "mediocre." As for a small sample size on clutch, Barnes has a very large sample size of high pressure data. It just doesn't support his opinion, so it doesn't count. Over his whole career, Barnes has a .694 OPS Against (agai, far from mediocre). His OPS Against Late & Close is .675 in 887 PAs- a bigger sample size than Kershaw's playoff numbers. .538 2 outs and RISP. There is ample evidence, if you look hard enough.

I think a sandwich pick.

I have a rough estimate of about $170M before we add anyone... The budget outlook is a little murky, due to JD's opt out and a few options that might be viewed as borderline (not by me). Here is a look at the lux tax numbers for 2022 (by cots): Locked Up: $100.5M 25.6 Sale 20.0 Bogey 17.0 Eovaldi 16.0 Price 9.38 Barnes 7.00 Kike 1.50 Sawamura Arbs (2021 salary) $24.5 10.5 Devers 2 of 3 (4.6) YES 5.00 Renfroe 3 of 4 (3.1) 2.50 Plawecki 4 of 4 (1.6) 1.50 Brasier 2 of 3 (1.3) 0.90 Cordero 2 of 3 (800K) 2.50 Verdugo 1 of 3 (650K) 2.50 Pivetta 1 of 3 (614K) 1.10 Arroyo 1 of 3 (582K) 1.00 Taylor 1 of 4 (581K) Pre-Arb Keepers (on 40 man): D Hernandez P Valdez Houck Dalbec Whitlock Duran Groome B Mata Y Rios C Seabold C Wong Pre-Arb Bubblers (on 40 man): A Davis Arauz Bazardo Ro Hernandez H Potts J Rosario Player Opt Out or Mutual Option: ($19.5M) 22.0 JD (19.4 projected no opt out) 10.0 Schwarber (11.5 m/o w 3 b/o) projected no option Team Options (my projection) 2021lux tax): ($7M) 10.0 w 1.5 b/o Richards (NO) 10.0 6.0 w 500K b/o Perez (NO) 5.0 7.0 w 250K b/o Vaz (YES) 4.5 3.5 w 250K b/o Andriese (NO) 2.1 Free Agents (2021 $$$ lux tax): 13.8 Pedey (Retired) 8.9 Ottavino 8.3 ERod (QO????) 3.0 Marwin (DFA'd) 2.8 Beni (paid to KCR-2021) 2.0 Robles ??? Santana (NYY paid us $1.8M for Ottavino in 2021) TOTAL BUDGET: 151.5M + 2.5M other 40man roster players +15.5M Player Benefits $170M 4-5 FA Pick-ups: SP2 (1-3 years) RP2 (1-3 years) 1B (1-2 years) Utility (1-2 years) Pitcher (1-2 years)

If ERod gets and takes a QO, that eats up almost half that amount.

Schwarber will get more than $10M a year.

He's saying Chapman has not blown a save in his last 3 games, so he's improved, despite horrific numbers.

You said very specifically, that he was better after getting rest as a reason to give Barnes rest. He did not get the rest 2 months ago. He was rested from 8/6 to /8/18 and has pitched 3 games after the rest. His numbers are horrific, but whoopdee doo- no blown saves. Then, on top of everything, you now move the goalposts and say "He's been better in the last two months. It's a fact." WRONG! Better than what? OPS Against .326 April .455 May Better than then? LOL! .1.158 June Better than June? Okay, but whoopdee freakin doo! .717 July .854 August (his 2nd worst month of the year, and this is better?) And, July is his 3rd worst month. Any way you look at it, Chapman has not improved. Last 2 months: .863 OPS Against 6.59 ERA April to June 29th .641 2.54 Try Calendar months: APR-JUN .695 3.77 JUL-AUG .767 4.05 Own up.

The criteria always changes to fit the opinion. The guy actually thinks Chapman has done well since returning from his 12 days of rest. End of discussion.

Do you even look at the numbers at all? Richards 2021 .824 High Leverage (.849 Medium Leverage, .851 Low Leverage) .000 Late & Close Career: .665 High Leverage (.727 Medium, .663 Low) .654 Late & Close (.706 overall) This being said, I'm not for Richards as closer, but don't say he's worse in high leverage situations.