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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    I was looking at the first tax line. Yes, we had a lot coming off, but we extended Crochet, Anthony and Campbell. Others got some slight raises. The good thing is no big arb raises.
  2. moonslav59
    Very true, and one key factor is that the whole bottom can fall out, if there is a sharp decline or injury that lessens the innings. The quality of those innings going forward matters. Gray was 3rd in ERA- in 2023 and 35th in 2024, then 40th in 2025. That's a scary trend for a 36 year old. Yes, he still had some decent side numbers that give us promise and hope, but once again, we've added a question mark at about the same money Buehler got, last year. That being said, I'd prefer Gray over Buehler- pre2025. 2023-2024 7th in FIP (3rd in xFIP) and 26th in ERA ay 4.07 His ERA- is 100 (dead average) 26th out of 37 qualifiers. (38th out of 54 with 300+ IP and 68th out of 114 with 200+ IP, Bello is at 93 & Houck 97, despite his awful '25 numbers) 5th in K-BB%
  3. moonslav59
    es, there is that route, too, but I recall they held off the AGon extention, until early April to avoid the tax.
  4. moonslav59
    It's gonna come down to JH & the winter budget. We've already spent a big chunk and probably still need a #2 SP or a co-#3 with Gray. Sure, Gray or even Bello, Early, Sandoval or someone else may step into a 2-3 role, but counting on it is dreaming. Using more trade capital and financial costs for someone like Alcantara or M Keller would mean the budget will have to be super high to also be able to fill our two big bat needs. There are many different ways to build a winning team, and supersizing the rotation would take some heat off the need for 2 big bats, but we'd still need one, at least. I read somewhere that Merrill Kelly could have given us what Gray will, at near the same contract cost. I'm not so sure, but some big questions remain about this upcoming winter.
  5. moonslav59
    That was one of the darkest times as a Sox fan. Fisk, Lynn, Burleson, Lee, Tiant and on and on...
  6. moonslav59
    I do agree the Sox felt Harrison was the prize.
  7. moonslav59
    soxprospects.com updated their rankings: https://soxprospects.com/history.htm Biggest Jumps from April 13>1 Tolle 18>8 Clarke (traded) 19>9 Gonzales 10>3 Early 14>6 Jh Garcia 17>11 Soto --->17 Uberstine --->18 Drohan n/a>5 Witherspoon n/a> 10 Fajardo n/a> 13 Phillips, 14 Eyanson, 15 Godbout, 19 Holobetz, 20 Travieso n/a> 25 Azocar, 28 Ramos, 29 Rivas 5>2 Arias 28>22 Mullins 29>27 Delzine ______________________ Biggest Declines: 21>--- D Reyes, 22>--- C Cason, 24>---Wehunt, 26>---Taylor 27>---Monegro 9>24 Cespedes 6>16 Romero 15>23 Bleis 8>12 Sandlin 16>21 Paez 25>26 Castro (The man cannot die w sp.com.) 4>4 Perales 7>7 Valera 30>30 Jo Garcia _______________________ Graduated: 1. Anthony 2. Campbell 3. Mayer 11. Fitts (traded) 12. Dobbins 20. Narvaez 23. Guerrero (traded)
  8. moonslav59
    They often miss the mark, even on the top FAs. I'll be surprised if we get any big FA, so trying to pick the one from many is a longshot.
  9. moonslav59
    Yes, so if the $10M counts on the 2026 tax line, then we shouldn.t be charges $30M for 2027. It should be $20M (30-10.) Do they adjust it depending on whether the option is taken of not?
  10. moonslav59
    If our winter budget was $40-45M, the $21M spent on Gray is about half. It would also mean no Alonso, Bregma or Bichette, among others. KMarte's AAV is $19.4M, so we could afford him. If Duran is part of the deal, then minus $7.7M. Maybe the play is to go to the second line or beyond. Chances are there will be a reset after the new CBA. I like Gray, but he's not the best #2 I had in mind and may be more like a 3. They money still seems high, when the budget is likely tight.
  11. moonslav59
    Yeah, I think I got that wrong. So, if he get's the 2027 option, do they subtract the $10M?
  12. moonslav59
    I'd go Mayer at 3B vs RHPs. Polanco at 2B FT. I'm okay with Romy at 3B for 30% of all starts. Mayer can come in to PH or as a defensive replacement, if needed. Without Alonso at 1B, I'm not sure Polanco gets it done, in terms of adding offense to replace Bregman. Alonso needs to replace the lost Devers offense to get us better than 2025.
  13. moonslav59
    Unless JH agrees to open his wallet wide- yea sure!- I say no. We need every penny to get two big bats,
  14. moonslav59
    Is the rule still that if you wait until the season starts, the extension does not count on the lux tax, that year?
  15. moonslav59
    It's made out of rubber.
  16. moonslav59
    I thought Lux tax counted the buyout with 2nd year only. So, $31M for 2026 + $10M buyout= $41M/2 Minus $20M paid by STL $21M/2 or $10.5M on tax line for 2026 and 2027. (If we don't buy him out, his 2027 number goes up.)
  17. moonslav59
    With the $20M included on the $41M/1 deal for Gray, that takes $21M from the winter spending budget.
  18. moonslav59
    Ryan 3.71/3.4 Lopez 3.69/3.2 Alcantara 4.01/2.5 M Kelly 4.10/2.5 Lodolo 4.04/2.4 M Keller 4.15/2.3
  19. moonslav59
    I'm ignorant of prospect values on other teams. I trust you know better. I'd still do this trade, even with Gray onboard. Bello would be our #4! 1. Crochet 2. Gray 3. Lodolo 4. Bello 5. Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Early, Tolle, Perales A switch hitting power bat that finally fixes our decade long hole at 2B. Do it! Add Alonso and I'm on cloud 9.
  20. moonslav59
    That $20M makes the move fine with me. Now, we can still afford others on our wish lists.
  21. moonslav59
    The only way I see adding another SP'er is if we include Crawford, Dobbins or Harrison in that deal. We did lessen the SP'er depth to improve our ML quality level for the rotation, but the 40 man still has the same number of SP'ers.
  22. moonslav59
    I've been Ref's top promoter on this site. Nobody comes close.
  23. moonslav59
    Probably a good thing. We also are better positioned to make a second trade, as we still have Duran. Duran plus _____ for K Marte? Then spend big on Alonso.
  24. moonslav59
    I'm fine with Fitts, but Clarke is a lot to give. Had we included Hicks, I'd be okay. This seems liek too much. I'd still like to get Ryan or Lodolo, too, but we need two bats, so this it probably it for rotation building.
  25. moonslav59
    Interesting. Is the second year still at $30M? If so, it's essentially $61M/2 or $41M/1 It was $75M/2 or $40M/1. Why would Gray agree to this?
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