moonslav59

Murphy does have 4 years left, and maybe just the last 2 arbs will be too costly for the A;s, but your point is a good one. They do gain Casas which is a wash on pre-arb prospects, and catching prospects fail more often than 1B ones, IMO. Maybe something like this, then... Dalbec, Duran, Downs for Montas & Trivino. (Now, we'd need a 1B placeholder for Casas.)

Daubach had a nice 4 year stretch with us. .833 OPS from 1999-2002. Per 650 PAs... 28 HRs 100 RBI 42 2B+3B Streaky? 1999 1.008 first 336 PAs .569 last 84 PAs 2000 .876 first 319 .614 last 230 2001 .914 first 251 .794 last 221- Not a bad stretch at all. 2002 .983 first 142 .746 last 364- Not bad either. JBJ gets the nod.

Is this realistic? Sign Suzuki and Iggy Trade Casas, Duran, Downs and Wong for Montas (2 yrs), Trivino (3 yrs) and Soderstrom ( a highly rated catching prospect worth near the value of Casas on BTV. The A's can then trade Olsen for pitching and use Casas at 1B.) That gives us... 1. Kike 2B/CF 2. Devers 3B 3. Bogey SS 4. JD DH 5. Verdugo LF/Suzuki RF 6. Suzuki RF/ Verdugo LF 7. Dalbec 1B 8. JBJ CF/ Arroyo 2B 9. Vaz Bench: Arroyo/JBJ, Iggy, Plawecki, Arauz/Cordero/Refsnyder SP: Eovaldi, Montas, Sale, Pivetta, Wacha (Paxton) RP: Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Hill, Brasier, Taylor, DHern, Sawamura/Davis/Seabold/Winckowski/Crawford/Valdez/Bazardo/Feltman

Agreed. I'm sure someone could break up his seasons differently than I did, but basically, since 2015, he's had 6 hot streaks in 7 seasons. Those hot streaks lasted these amounts of PAs: 129 121 146 234 417 108 Looking at the 417 large sample size in 2019, one could have broken that season into this: .443 first 150 1.058 middle 152 .724 last 265

We've all seen how streaky JBJ has been over his career, and I've defended that streakiness by pointing out consistent stellar defense and the fcat that his hot streaks have often been red to white hot and carried the team for stretches that sometimes lasted a month or two, but I don't think anyone truly believes that had the 2020 season been 162 games, JBJ would have had similar numbers over the 100+ games added. It's not that it shouldn't count, and that stretch does add some hope that he is not in a severe decline mode, but he does turn 32 in April. His fWAR does not show a long steady decline like bWAR does. 2.0 in 2015 in just 74 games 5.8 in 2016 (156 gms) 3.4 in 2017 (133) 2.5 in 2018 (144) 2.0 in 2019 (147) 2.0 in 2020 (55 games) -0.7 in 2021 (134) One could argue 2020 was more of an outlier than 2021, if you projected a 5.5 WAR and considered the natural decline most players have as they age past 29 or 30. Here's another look at the streaky JBJ: OPS 2015: .426 first 71 PAs 1.147 middle 129 PAs .560 last 55 2016 ,679 first 82 1.245 middle 121 .753 last 433 2017 .670 first 130 1.028 middle 146 .589 last 265 2018 .563 first 251 .851 last 234 2019 .443 first 150 .844 last 417 2020 .646 first 109 .991 last 108 2021 .365 first 28 .555 middle 346 .268 last 73 Thinking hopefully, one could look at the last 417 PAs of 2019 and all of 2020 and see over 600 PAs of nice hitting, and 2021 would look like a blip. Thinking negatively, one might think we are looking at one stretch of 108 PAs of good hitting in the last 2 years and 635 PAs.

Yes. 2016 #12 Groome #51 Chatham (traded for V Santos- still has some promise) #88 S Anderson (traded with G Santos for E Nunez) #118 Dalbec #148 Shawaryn #178 S Nogosek (traded with G Bautist & J Callahan for Addison Reed) 2017 #24 Houck #491 K Crawford 2018 #26 Casas #100 Feltman #130 K Cottam #160 T Ward #220 Duran 2019 (No 1st rounder) #69 M Lugo #137 N Song IFA 2015-16 B Mata 2016 (restricted) H Velazquez 2017 D Flores (RIP) B Bello G Jimenez 2018 W Gonzalez B Bonaci C Rafaela E Paulino

How much better does he have to hit to just get to a zero WAR? As he ages, does his chances get smaller? Does his defense decline some, as well? I'm hoping he can get over .650 or .675 and see a chance he can get over .700 and .750, but I think those may be long odds.

Never did I expect it to happen so quickly, especially with the way the system is set up to make it harder on big spending and winning teams. Sucking in 2020 brought us Mayer and others, so that helped, a lot. We also have to give some props to DD for drafting well with lower picks.

Happy New Year!

Yup. And lots of companies do some rather sickening things just to make a few more bucks in profit.

We cut Marwin for the same offense.

He did finish 6th in PAs on the Brewers and was lass than 50 PAs from 4th. He hit .459 in his last 333 PAs- that’s OPS and more PAs than Marwin got all year.

I’d love to see us add a2Bman, Montas and Trivino, but maybe we add Suzuki, Bassit and Trivino, and Kike plays 2B almost FT.

Even platooning him might not happen.

If we get a starter from the A’s, then Hill or Wacha move to the pen with Houck, Whitlock, Barnes and others. That might hold us to the deadline.

The age of absurdity!

Sarcasm is lost on this site.

$5M AAV assuming we pay the $8M buyout that does not count on the tax line. It’s $12M x 2 on the AAV if we take the option minus whatever Renfroe gets in2 Arbs. That might be $24M - $14M or more or less likely less. Then add what we pay fro a RHd bat to platoon with JBJ or suffer his poor splits.

Sounds like a good plan.

Exactly, and neither do we. We could both be wrong on this one. JBJ could outplay Renfroe in’22, or one or both prospects could end up outplaying Renfroe’s 2 remaining years by themselves.

Lmao.

It implies I added up the projected pluses and minuses and think it’s a net negative, so I scratch my head wondering why we make a net negative trade, in my opinion. Yes, there are connotations of not understanding, so that term might not have been the best choice. I will refrain from using that term for this trade going forward, in hopes you can now sleep at night. Hello

I can see that position, but I think we could have traded Renfroe for a cheap RPer or OFer and not paid either of these two. It would make signing Suzuki or Story easier, financially. Even if you just count the $5M more for JBJ x 2 years, that’s $10M, then add the cost of Paxton to our initial offer to ERod and it’s gets much closer. I know it’s more complicated than just looking at 2022 and 2023 AAV comps, but certainly some sort of upgrade could have been possible. We did not have to pay Renfroe. We could have easily traded him for a prospect or not offered him the web, if we thought he’d be a zero WAR player in ‘22.

If I don’t like a trade, I say it’s a head-scratcher. Is that the issue, here? If I start saying I dislike the trade, that changes everything for you?

We apparently made a shorter term offer. The $24M paid to JBJ added to our initial offer makes it a bit closer but maybe not quite equal. It’s not $77M vs $24M Also, if you sub out Wacha or Paxton, too, it gets closer to even..