moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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The numbers sure make him seem like a better bet than Fukudome. I think he's worth a shot, but then again, I like Rusney, too.
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Having both is not a bad idea, either, but I prefer spending on pitching as the higher priority. Kike is a FA after this year, so having Duran, Suzuki and Verdugo for 2023 is not a bad idea. (JBJ will likely be here, too as his $8M option buy out pretty much means he'll be back for $4M more than the buy out.)
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Nothing really new, here, but here is MLBTR's breakdown of the Red Sox offseason and 2022 outlook... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/red-sox-have-the-flexibility-to-pursue-an-impact-move-coming-out-of-the-lockout.html
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You didn't answer why you think Steam has validity or the implied more validity, since you don't use BTV values. (BTW, they rarely change weekly, and why shouldn't they change more often than once a year?)
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2nd year arb players are usually underpaid, while FAs are overpaid. Do you value BTV assessments?
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I know you really value Steamer. I do not. I still think almost every team, where $2.9M is not a problem, would take Trivino. BTV gives him a plus 1.1 value, so they think he's worth $1.1M over his expected pay.
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Only because a team with a worse record would get to pick him before the M's. I am certain the M's would take him for nothing but his salary. Most pens use 15-25 pitchers every season and 12-18 relief pitchers get significant IP'd. You must think 6-8 are enough... or not?
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I never said he’d be your closer or even 2-3 or 4 guys. My point was your team would take him at his salary. I also think you rely on steamer too much, but at least you use a consistent criteria for the most part.
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I disagree. 2nd year web players with unspectacular numbers are rarely “overpaid” in the context of most team payrolls.
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Here is a look at the best OPS year our players have had in the last 3 seasons. (I added two consecutive partial seasons together, if the top one was a small sample.) .959 Dalbec '20 (.819 '20-'21 in 545 PAs combined) .939 Bogey '19 .939 JD M '19 .916 Devers '19 .844 Verdugo '20 (.827 '19-'20 in 598 PAs combined) .814 JBJ '20 (.760 '19-'20 in 784 PAs combined) .801 Vazquez '20 (.798 '19-'20 in 655 PAs combined) .786 Kike '21 (was .806 in 2018) .778 Plawecki '20-'21 in 262 PAs combined (.719 '19-'20 combined 436 PAs) .769 Arroyo '21 (.762 '20-'21 in 235 PAs combined/ Career .690 in 486 PAs) A better list might be ordered it like this: .939 Bogey '19 .939 JD M '19 .916 Devers '19 .827 Verdugo '19-'20 .819 Dalbec '20-'21 .798 Vaz '19-'20 .786 Kike '21 .760 JBJ '19-'20 .747 Arroyo '19-'21 .719 Plawecki '19-'21
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The way he used it was not "fine," and he admitted it. Renfroe's plus arm did not "negate" his bad defense. Negate implies totally. It was not fine. That's why I corrected it. I re-used his word choice and added "partially" because it did not fully turn his negative defense into a zero or plus defense. It only partially did. While saying partially negated something bad may be a poor choice of a descriptor, in the context of responding to his term used, it made sense- to me obvious sense. His arm plus was not positive enough to fully outweigh his errors and range negatives. It only partially did. Scratch your head all you want. It doesn't partially nugatory anything.
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It was easy to understand. You can negate and partially negate something bad to varying degrees.
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Look what people pay to go to a concert, now. Talk about sick! Look what movie stars make.
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Kuhn also negated the Rudi & Fingers deal to the Sox and the Vida Blue deal to the Yanks for cash.
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Or, in your case, a ball scratcher. It seemed obvious. His plus arm did not fully negate his poor D. It only partially negated it- leaving it as still an overall negative. Had it fully negated it, as the statement implied that I responded to, it would have made his overall D a zero or plus. (The statement read: " Renfroe's assists helped negate his bad jumps or lack of range...) His arm did not fully negate his bad D. It only partially did. It's not complicated.
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To partially negate a negative actually lessens the total negative aspect of his D, but does not fully negate it to the point where it is a zero or positive. The ole double negative.
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Yes, his arm only partially negated his poor defense- not fully negated his poor defense. It did not totally wipe away his overall negative defense, if just made it not be really bad. His arm strength was not enough to keep him from being an overall negative. fangraphs: -3.0 ErrR -1.4 RngR +1.9 ARM As you can see his arm only partially negated his overall bad D to a -2.5 UZR, instead of even worse.
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Nope what? A said his arm did not fully negate the other aspects of his poor defense fully, meaning it was still an overall negative.
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I'd reword this to... "Helped partially negate his bad jumps or lack of range..."
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I wonder if the Sox internal defensive evaluations had Renfroe as significantly worse than the ones we know or our own opinions of his defense. We might tend to be wow’s by all the OF assists, but Fenways’s RF is do large, maybe his short range really convinced them he had to go. Maybe the thought of how important OF defense improvement also led them to view JBJ in a more positive light than most of us view him. If Renfroe ends up with a plus 2-3 WAR, the Sox might still think his value is less than that even going forward, too, so what we might view as a good season by Renfroe, they might see as much worse. I’m just saying this could be a view they have taken. It’s pure speculation on my part. Personally, I thought Renfroe’s arm cancelled out a sizeable chunk of his poor D, and his offense more than made him a good plus player. Maybe they don’t see it that way or the expect Renfroe and JBJ to regress towards their norms in 2922.
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I think that and the fact that they viewed Renfroe as a wash or negative value per contract dollar 2022-2023. RF defense is worth more to a Red Sox team than the norm, although some of that has to do with arm strength, where he excelled.
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It's hard to predict injuries, so I just went by overall good health by all. Once could argue, if Sale has 100% good health, he might hit 190-200 IP.
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True about Paxton. I did put a plus after the 50 for the 7 through 10 starters. I also think we add a RH'd bat to the OF and maybe a left-handed option at 1B as a bridge to Casas- something very cheap. I guess, if the add Suzuki, they could play Kike at 1B some games, but that seems like a waste of his defense. Vaz has 65 career PAs at 1B, but he needs to hit better than 2021 to earn playing time there- like when Eovaldi is starting and Plawecki is his binky.
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As it stands, now, with no more additions, could we see this sort of breakdown by PAs and IP? PAs: No Injury Plan Catcher: 480 Vaz/170 Plawecki 1B: 500 Dalbec/150 Casas 2B: 300 Arroyo/350 Kike 3B: 650 Devers SS: 650 Bogey LF: 300 Verdugo/350 Duran CF: 350 JBJ/300 Kike RF: 250 JBJ/ 350 Verdugo/50 JD DH: 600 JD/ 50 Dalbec IP: 180 Eovaldi 160 Sale 160 Pivetta 120 Wacha 100 Hill 60 Paxton 50+ Seabold/Winckowski/Crawford+ 80+ Whitlock 70+ Houck 60 Barnes 50 Brasier 50 Taylor 45 DHern 45 Davis 50 Sawamura 80+ Valdez/Bazardo/Feltman+
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Why is Trivino's Arb estimate, so high, if he's worth zero? His stats will improve not having to face the might M's any more, too!
