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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Yea, and each extra series or "play-in" game you have to play, lessens your chances to win it all. If the playoffs are a coin flip, like some think it is, the teams that have to get through the WC round have just a 50% chance of getting to the round of 4 that teams with byes reach without having to play a 3 game series to get there. Surely, the 2 teams in each league that get b yes have a better chance winning it all than those who don't, even if all series are 50-50.
  2. moonslav59
    The Sox made two key moves in 2018: Eovaldi and Pearce. I think the Yanks will make a move or two at the deadline. If they don't, Cashman will have hell to pay, if a hole is not plugged, even a current and seemingly minor one.
  3. moonslav59
    Agreed. If we trade for a 1Bman, and Dalbec is not part of the trade, he'll be demoted in a flash.
  4. moonslav59
    They should have traded Kiermaier, last winter. He may go this deadline, but won't get much in return, if anything. They may trade Kluber and Zunino, this deadline, despite being in the race. FA's after 2023: Glasnow Choi
  5. moonslav59
    The Bogey, JD, Nate window is closing quickly. I can't see Bloom dealing any of them, even if he added something big to offset losing one of them. It will be sad losing them, and getting nothing in return, but it is what it is, and we can use their salaries plus Price's to get some nice replacements. Hell, we may end up keeping one.
  6. moonslav59
    Agreed, any moves made that seem to weaken this year's team, like trading Kike, Hill, Brasier, Sawamura of the like, would be made to make room for an upgrade at a position of high or higher need. We may see a 3-way deal. I am near certain we'll see a 2 or 3 for 1 deal- maybe two deals that will ease this winter's roster crunch while improving the team down the stretch.
  7. moonslav59
    True. German's 17.2 IP in AAA have not mirrored his AA numbers, but he does have 23K's and .546 OPSA in AAA which is nearly identical to Ort's OPSA and K rate. German had 3 BB and 18 K's in 11.1 IP at AA, this year.
  8. moonslav59
    If Kike returns, he may not be "broken." He's playing, now, in the minors. Despite his often mentioned .240 career BA, he's been a clear plus player for a long time. If Arroyo has no trade value, I'd DFA him over trading Kike, but Arroyo has longer team control, so maybe they trade Kike. The easy solution is demoting Duran.
  9. moonslav59
    I could see us trading a few fringe players (Brasier, Sawamura, Davis, Arroyo, Diekman, if anybody wants him), and maybe even Kike and or Hill, and then trade prospects/players that may be facing a 40 man roster crunch, this winter for upgrades in the pen and at 1B. I agree: Bogey, JD and Nate aren't going anywhere. (Wacha, too.)
  10. moonslav59
    Even teams with first round byes?
  11. moonslav59
    I put him in parenthesis on purpose, but with 5 other pitchers out hurt, not having Danish does matter a tiny bit.
  12. moonslav59
    As much as some dislike Brasier, Sawamura and others, I just don't see us DFA'ing anyone, except maye Diekman, but even he has a 2 year deal, so I'm not sure Bloom cuts ties. Barnes is in a similar boat. If we can keep him on the IL through the roster crunch, it won't be an issue, but I seriously doubt we DFA him. Perhaps we can trade him for a similar salary, but I can't see a fit/match anywhere. Davis is out of options. Brasier has an option, so maybe he could be demoted, despite his recent decency. I could see us trade 1-2 RP'ers (maybe Brasier and or Sawamura) for faraway prospects to make room for returning pitchers and future acquisitions for the pen. 8 man pen: No options Strahm Barnes Davis Diekman Options Houck Whitlock Schreiber Brasier Sawamura Taylor Danish (IL) Crawford, Seabold, Wink, Bello Ort, Valdez For the most part, our RP'ers without options are worse than those with options. Something has to give, because there isn't room for our best 8. If we add 1-2 more arms, several good pitchers will be demoted or traded.
  13. moonslav59
    Ort's high BB rate scares the bejesus out of me. I have to think he's the first sent back, once a pitcher comes off the IL. We may not see Ort again.
  14. moonslav59
    I’d like to see a comp with their career norms
  15. moonslav59
    You think we trade Kike, then? (I've suggest trading him on BTV a few times, recently.) Since Kike can play 2B, SS and 3B, I think we'd trade Arroyo before Kike, despite Arroyo's longer team control. If it were up to me, I'd DFA JBJ, once I knew Kike was 100%, but that won't happen.
  16. moonslav59
    They are not a weak defensive team. We just got lucky, there. It is a feat to go 2-2 without... Devers Nate Sale Wacha Whitlock Hill Kike (Danish & Seabold, too)
  17. moonslav59
    But... I'll never admit it!
  18. moonslav59
    It appears Duran and Ref are locked into a platoon, even as Kike is on the IL. I doubt they make either FT, when he returns, so to me, it's Kike vs JBJ, and the choice is clear, assuming Kike hits like he was in his most recent 113 PAs (a sample size much larger than Duran & Ref's). .746 OPS Of course, if he hits like JBJ, maybe they platoon those two, as well. I think they work Kike back, slowly, and see what happens, but I think they view him as a FT player. He has a .737 OPS since 2015, and while that is not great, it beats JBJ's .720 mark since 2015, and Kike can play excellent D, too. Since 2017: .741 Kike .680 JBJ Since 2019: .723 Kike .649 JBJ Since 2021: .735 Kike .524 JBJ
  19. moonslav59
    Trade him while his stock is high.
  20. moonslav59
    It would be nice. He's 30 years old and has 2 IP in the bigs. His 4.9 BB/9 rate has always been the thorn, and this year has seen very little improvement (4.2). The 12.5 K/9 rate is nice, though. Best OPSA in Woo .539 Seabold .546 German (.493 AA) .548 Ort .562 Wink .570 Kelly .594 Feliz .611 Valdez (.573 MLB) .619 Bello (.460 AA)
  21. moonslav59
    Who has the most "Late & Close" chances, this year? Story is 6th. PAs and OPS might surprise some... 56 Bogey .797 52 Devers .883 47 Verdugo .422 45 JBJ .484 44 JD .652 44 Story .415 41 Vaz .831 41 Dalbec .571 (17 Refsnyder 1.009) The two guys (Story & Verdugo) who seem to have been the "most clutch" by the "eye test" have actually been the worst in the circumstances provided by the "late & close" stat. Late & Close are Plate Appearances in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck. How about "High Leverage?" 75 Verdugo .671 61 Bogey .600 60 Story .698 56 Devers .931 54 JD M .536 46 Vaz .813 44 Dalbec .561 42 JBJ .703 35 Cordero .719 34 Arroyo .717 32 Kik .745 (18 Refsnyder .361) These numbers seem to support the eye test a little more, but some are also surprising. Devers, Vaz & Kike are the best 3. JD, Dalbec & Bogey are the worst 3. Story & Dugo are about in the middle upper half.
  22. moonslav59
    As I've pointed out, before, to those who said this... If you take away everyone's "hottest week," Story is still right up there among the Sox RBI leaders. Also, he had RBIs in 6 of those 7 games, and guess which 6 we won. Are those 6 wins worth less than others, just because they are bunched up?
  23. moonslav59
    .. This is what happens when pitching slumps.
  24. moonslav59
    Thanks. I fixed it.
  25. moonslav59
    JBJ, Diekman & Barnes for Gallo & Chapman LOL
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