moonslav59

I think our biggest gaps in skill value is between #4 and #5 and #13 to #14. (I guess between #2 and #3, too.) BTV has these values: 50 Casas 48 Mayer 22 Yorke 12 Downs 10 Bello 6.6 Jordan 6.0 Mata 4.8 Winckowski 3.9 Gonzalez 3.5 Seabold 3.0 McDonough & Rosario 2.9 Groome & R Hernandez 2.6 Bonaci, Decker & Lugo 2.4 Blies, Potts & Valdez 2.3 Jimenez, Wong & Murphy 1.8 Gonzalez (OF) & Lopez 1.7 Howlett & Walter 1.6 Bazardo, Cannon, Chacon & Ward 1.4 Song 1.3 Feliz, Kavadas & Vaughn 1.1 Rafaela & others (Feltman & Santos are listed at 0.5/ Cottam 0.2)

As usual, the Coaches Poll varies from the AP Poll by a little. Both have ND 5th, but I think the College Playoff Committee will put Michigan 5th and ND 6th. Both have the to 8 the same, except the Coaches has AL 2nd and Ohio St 3rd. The AP flips them.

His hitting took a big dive in 2021. I hope that changes, next year. I won't repeat my views on the rest of his game, but BTV has him as a plus 1.6, so he is doing something right. Catchers are hard to find. Between Wong and Hernandez, we may develop a decent replacement, assuming Vaz will not be extended beyond 2022.

That's 3 big holes. There were years where the Yanks went "top shelf" on 3 slots or more in a winter. I remember the 2013-2014 winter signings. There were 13 players who declined their QO's. The Yanks signed 4 of them. Ellsbury McCann C Beltran Kuroda (basically, re-signed) 2009 probably beats them all: Teixeira $180M/8 Sabathia $161/7 Burnett $83M/5 These were the top 3 deals, by far. The next was Derek Lowe at $60M/4. Those were the days, huh? Now, we both sit back and watch the Dodgers be the Yanks of old.

Actually, accepting Vaz's option was the first chosen expenditure. (JD's was not up to them.)

I think we learned from Covid 2020 that taking a full year off does not ruin the vast majority of prospects. Yes, it would be a great disservice to retard his growth, yet another year, by sitting him on the bench for most of the season, but if some GM really values an unprotected prospect (not saying Jimenez), it's not really "dumb" to snatch one for the long term future- retarded growth and all. Some teams are so clearly in tank mode and aren't even close to being competitive by even 2023. Teams are used to going with 25 players, and now they have 26. I would not be surprised if 3-5 teams take long-away players as their 26th man who rarely plays. They don't care about 2022. They are looking at 2024 and beyond and building assets for then, not now. Even if a team traded for Jimenez, they'd still be looking at 2024, at the earliest. I setting him back a year and losing team control years really a decision-killer? If one of these single A prospects turn to gold, they'd have a nice trade chip, even if the guy only has 1-3 years of team control left, or if some ssort of miracle happens and they luck into being a contender, then they have one more helpful piece. Look, I admit, I know very little about prospects, particularly single A ones. Hell, nobody knows for sure about just about all of them, but we are in a new era of young talent acquisition, and teams are valuing prospects more than I have ever seen. Look how teams value the comp picks gained or lost by QO offers or signings. Do you think Jimenez would be drafted in the comp rounds? If yes, then maybe drafting him in Rule 5 is not such an absurd idea. Yes, he loses a year of growth, when he needs it most. Yes, the team loses years of team control, because the clock starts ticking, but there is not lost slot money in a draft or anything of substantial value lost, even if they return him.

Sox Exercise Alex Cora's 2023-2024 Option.

There was a shake-up in the top 10 rankings, this week as Oregon got throttled by Utah (I've long felt the Pac-10 was over-rated) and Michigan St, was pounded by Ohio St. Of course, my team is Notre Dame. I was there, my Freshman year, when our 3rd string QB, Joe Montana led us to a big Cotton Bowl victory over the Earl Campbell led Longhorns for the 1977 NCAA Championship. One ranking has ND number 5, but my guess is the "committee" will come out with these rankings, tomorrow night- with one week to go... 1. Georga 11-0 2. Ohio St 10-1 3. Alabama 10-1 4. Cincinatti 11-0 5. Michigan 10-1 6. Notre Dame 10-1 7. OK St 10-1 8. Ole Miss 9-2 9. Oklahoma 10-1 10. Baylor 9-2/Oregon 9-2 Here is how I see it shaking out: 1. Georgia beats GA Tech and ends up #1 seeded at 12-0. 2. Ohio St beats Michigan to end up #2 at 11-1. 3. Alabama almost lost to Arkansas and has a tough game at Auburn. I put this as a toss-up. 4. Cincy should win at E Carolina on Friday. 5. Michigan loses to OSU. 6. Notre Dame wins at Stanford and passes the Michigan-OSU loser who will have 2 loses. 7. OK St hosts Oklahoma, and the winner might have an outside chance at squeaking in. Let's say all this comes true, the rankings before conference championship games might look like this: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio St 3. Alabama 4. Cincinatti 5. Notra Dame 6. OK St. 7. Ole Miss/Baylor/Oregon/ Mich St. The Conference Championship games are not set, but this could be the most likely match-ups: SEC Georgia v Alabama -If AL loses, they have 2 losses and should be out. -If Georgia loses, maybe bot team are in the top 4. Big Ten The winner of OSU & Mich will play Iowa or Wisconsin -I'm assuming OSU or Mich wins and is top 4. AAC Cincy should play #19 Houston. -If Cincy wins, they will be in. -If Cincy loses, ND should be in. Pac 10 Oregon will likely get a rematch with Utah -If Utah wins, they may sneak in, if there are some upsets. -If Oregon wins, no Pac-10 team has a chance. Big 12 OK & OK St are 7-1 in the conference but one will lose, next week. Baylor is 6-2. -I'm not sure any Big 12 team makes the top 4, unless some upsets happen. I'm hopeful ND makes it. Take care of business at Stanford, and not having a conference championship game should help, as others knock each other off.

Good post. Maybe the first question is whether Bloom will pounce before the lock-out date (Dec 1st). It seems some players want to sign before that date, especially the recently posted OF'er S Suzuki. There may be some bargain signings in the next few days, but who knows? Maybe if the owners win bigly, the post lock-out contracts will be bargains- assuming there is a lock-out.

1. Mayer 2. Casas 3. Yorke 4. Bello 5. Duran 6. Jordon 7. Downs 8. Groome 9. Seabold 10. Gonzalez 11. Mata 12. Winckowski 13. Jimenez 14. Blies 15. Song 16. Murphy 17. Wong 18. McDonough 19. R Hernandez 20. Ward 21. Walter 22. Hickey 23. Rafaela 24. Crawford 25. Santos 26. Bazardo 27. Feltman 28. Lugo 29. Gambrell 30. Howlett/Cottam/FValdez/German

soxprospects.com finally came out with their end of season rankings. https://soxprospects.com/history.htm They used to post them in October, but the last 2 years have been late November. Here are the Rankings (Rise or Fall from Aug 8 rankings). Houck was ranked 5th and is no longer a prospect, so everyone after #5 moved up 1 by attrition, so I did not count that in my +/- numbers. 1. Casas 2. Mayer 3. Yorke (+4) 4. Duran (-1) 5. Downs (-1) 6. Bello (+0) 7. Jordan (+5) 8. Groome (+1) 9. Jimenez (-2) 10. Mata (+0) 11. Seabold (-1) 12. Gonzalez (+7) 13. Winckowski (+0) 14. Murphy (+1) 15. Blies (not in top 20 in Aug) 16. Wong (+2) 17. Walter (n/a) 18. Song (-5) 19. Ward (-1) 20. McDonough (n/a) 21. Bonaci (-6) 22. R Hernandez (was 14th in April) 23. Rafaela 24. Paulino 25. Crawford 26. Lugo (-7) 27. Hickey 28. Decker 29. Bazardo (was 19th in April) 30. Lira 31. Santos Notables: 34. Feltman 37. Fitzgerald 45. Rosario (was 20th in April) 46. Howlett 48. German 49. Potts 50. Gambrell 52. Cottam 53. Castellanos 60. Granberg

I think Feltman will be taken. Jimenez & Santos are under 50-50 being taken- maybe even under a 10 to 20% chance.

Even if you swoop in on the 4th or 5th best SS on the market, it will be a very good one. Don't believe every report. there are enough conflicting ones to know they can't all be right.

The Yanks scavenged the Ranger's garbage for Odor.

They've updated BTV values over the last few weeks. Here are a few changes I've noticed: Sale went from a negative to positive value (+12) Bello rose to 10 Pivetta up to 9 Jimenez went from over 10 to 2.3 Notables: Renfroe & Vaz remain at 1.6 each Sawamura -1.8 Barnes -4.9 JD -9.6

There is reason for concern, and having him as the utility infielder rather than the FT 3Bman is nice, but is 3B really one of your biggest weak areas? How many slots are you going to fill, this winter? Seager is going to cost. Adding a top pitcher will cost. Adding another pitcher will cost. Findings a CF'er will cost.

MLBTR... Mike Groopman is joining the Red Sox organization as an assistant general manager, per Chad Jennings and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Groopman was previously with the Brewers as VP of International Scouting and Player Personnel. After short stints with the Reds and Mets, Groopman was hired by the Royals in 2008 and ended up staying for a decade, before moving to Milwaukee in 2017. When he joined Kansas City, the club was in the middle of a years-long tank job that ultimately proved fruitful, as they had four consecutive seasons of .500 or above from 2013 to 2016, which included back-to-back trips to the World Series, losing to the Giants in 2014 but then defeating the Mets in 2015. Since Groopman came to the Brewers, they have also had a nice run of success, having just made the postseason for a fourth straight year. Of course, front offices are comprised of dozens of employees and no individual can take full responsibility for a club’s successes or failures. Still, the fact that Groopman has been given this new job and new title shows that his work is well regarded in the industry.

Yes, as far as I know a singular example, but Baddoo was taken 3rd and was the Twins 13th ranked prospect. Also, since the 26th man was added, a single A player has been drafted every year... LOL! 1 out of 18 players taken was a single A player. I'm still waiting for you to answer my question. I have responded to yours. Bell is right, What else is there to talk about?

I agree it's not likely, and there is probably a better single A player left unprotected from another team, but I'm just saying conditions are ripe for a few teams to do things we don't normally see done.

I think leaving 3 slots open is pretty telling. I don't think it means we will be keeping many from this list on the 40 man: Potts Rosario Plawecki Aruaz Valdez Davis I think it means we might add a player or two off waivers or the Rule 5 draft plus sign or trade for 3-4 players.

I have yet to see a list of who are the most likeliest Rule 5 draftees. Maybe Feltman has the best chance of making someone's first round list. I doubt anyone else gets picked, but several baseball people projected us protecting Santos, Cottam and Jimenez. Outside shots might be ML ready Ort, Fitzgerald or German. Ward might be picked as a wait a year player, as he recovers from TJS. soxprospects,com wrote this before the protection announcement: Certain to be protected, certain to be selected if unprotected: RHP Brayan Bello, SS/2B Jeter Downs, RHP Josh Winckowski Near-certain to be protected, certain to be selected if unprotected: RHP Kutter Crawford Likely to be protected, may be selected if unprotected: RHP Thaddeus Ward May be protected, may be selected: RHP Durbin Feltman, RHP Frank German, IF/OF Ryan Fitzgerald, RHP Victor Santos Unlikely to be protected, small chance to be selected, unlikely to stick category: OF Gilberto Jimenez, IF/OF Ceddanne Rafaela, RHP Chase Shugart Unlikely to be protected, small chance to be selected, depth arms category: RHP Zack Kelly, RHP Kaleb Ort, RHP AJ Politi Unlikely to be protected or selected, but of note: 1B/OF Pedro Castellanos, 1B/OF Franchy Cordero, C Kole Cottam, LHP Rio Gomez, 1B/OF Devlin Granberg, RHP Joan Martinez

Yes, for 2022 only. It would be adding $11M for 2023 minus what Renfroe might get in his last arb, then $11M a year the next 3 years. It might be a way to improve our defense, maybe stay even on offense and improve our longer term outlook by adding just $2M to a tight 2022 budget.

I'm not saying it's even likely to happen, but things have changed a lot in 2 years. I just said don't be surprised- not "I think he will get picked." You still don't answer my question. Here's another one... What was Baddoo's profile?

Selecting him costs nothing, and their 24th to 26th men suck anyway. It's just about the lost year of development that works against selecting him. That may be harsh enough to scare every GM off, but only one is needed to surprise you.

You might not like my answer, but I explained why I think they might. I don't think sitting him "ruins his future." He will be playing in ST'ing, as a defensive replacement, getting a few ABs, and practicing with the big team. It's not like he's sitting on a couch all year. Again, I just said don't be surprised if he gets picked. Why not answer some of my questions? Why did many experts say he might be protected, if they felt there was zero chance he'd get selected? BTW, just this past year, Akil Baddoo, who hit .683 in A ball in his last season, was selected and even played a lot. It does happen. It might happen again. MIGHT!