moonslav59

Not a "perfect post," but pretty close.

I think when you factor in not having Houck as the closer during this stretch, one could argue it was a failure. We'll never know, if Houck would have done better than the closer by committee did, but it's hard ti imagine him doing any worse.

I think blowing and saving the same games have been a reality, at times. Our starters have had quite a bit of meltdowns, too, but they just aren't called that.

I'm not sure I have ever said pitching is not our highest priority- ever! I think the return of Whitlock, Nate, Wacha Sale, Nate, Hill, Taylor and maybe even Danish, Barnes, Seabold plus the introduction of Paxton to the staff might be enough or near enough to drop pitching to the #2 slot on the highest need list.

Looks right, to me. You have a good view on prospects. I have three questions for you: 1) Who has the best chance to crack the top 10 by the end of the season? Lugo? Gonzalez? Jordan? Someone else? 2) Do you think these ranking's jumps were too much or too little? Hickey 30>19 Kavadas 46>29 3) We had a big debate over Seabold over the winter, and you convinced me I was over-rating him. Now the question: has your view changed on him after his apparent success in AAA, this season? Thanks in advance for your responses.

I think the Sox budget will remain a top 3-5 one going forward, so the ability to sign large and long contracts is certainly present. I'm wondering, if we don't go large and longer than a Story type deal in the next few years, whether that comes more from Henry or Bloom. Maybe a joint decision. Again, the philosophy looks pretty logical on paper, as most LnL contracts do not work out for the team, but losing Betts, Bogey and Devers within a 4-5 year period is just too overwhelming for most fans to handle and explain away with so-called "logic." Winning a ring in the next few years would make us forget Betts more easily, and I suppose the same could be said after we lose Bogey and/or Devers, but it's hard to swallow, as a fan, until the ring is won.

Me, too.

This would never pass Red's Eye Test. RP WPA 5.62 NYY 4.71 STL 4.27 BAL 3.84 MIL 3.52 HOU 2.51 COL 2.06 BOS 1.94 ATL & CHC 1.92 SEA The pen ranks 21st in -WPA and 5th in +WPA. Our starters rank 10th In WPA at 1.58 (NYY is 3rd). 7th in -WPA 17th in +WPA

Here are some Sox pen rankings from fangraphs: 10th ERA- 90 10th HR/9 0.90 T10th fWAR 2.2 11th K-BB% 15.1% 13th WHIP 1.22 14th ERA- 99 15th xFIP- 99 17th LOB% 71.2% 18th HR/9 1.12 (thanks to Nate) Some might be surprised to see our starters rank lower in some of these rankings: 11th LOB% 74.1% 14th xFIP- 101 15th fWAR 5.6 15th WHIP 1.27 16th K-BB% 13.8%

The issue was more about 1B than OF/DH, but as it turned out, Dalbec remained on fire through AUG and into SEP.

I think I did what I often criticize others for doing: reading too much into recent stats. Rizzo 2014-2019 (per 162 games) .284 32 105 (70 XBHs and .901 OPS) Rizzo 2020-2021 (including time with NYY) .240 27 69 (53 XBH and .775 OPS) While 819 PAs seems like a large enough sample size, it often is misleading. I'm not sure anyone projected these numbers for 2022 (per 162 games) .281 39 94 (65 XBHs and .827 OPS) but it's not really all that extreme a jump, even at age 32 and about to be 33.

Maybe manager of the last 19 games of the year award.

Double what!

I think Bogey walks and it's 50-50 on Devers.

Did it work?

Neither Vaz or Wacha will get a QO. I don't think it's even close.

The list of Yankee and Sox free agents-to-be is sizable and eye-opening. If many end up back with their current clubs, no biggie, but there is a chance for some serious make-overs.

I guess we are destined to an eternity of MVP griping.

When none can catch a pop-up, how can Cora be blamed for choosing the wrong one?

How many more wins would we have had we played Dalbec at 1B FT, played Cordero in RF everytime Arroyo did, and gone with another crappy RP'er instead of the one he chose?

Not me. I'd sign Devers forevers, but I'm not sure this management team will ever go larger and longer than about what Story got. They did offer Betts a ton, so who knows. I think we need to "bite the bullet" once or twice a decade. As much as I knew the Price deal was too large and way too long, I felt it was needed, at that time. I feel like, this coming winter will be a time like Price's was. I suppose we could go with 2-3 Story type deals or $20-24M x 4-5 year deals, but I don't see a stud coming out of the minors anytime, soon, so a big one may be needed.

They jumped Rafaela from 19 to 8, but Bleis only from 8 to 7. Would you put these two ahead of Yorke, Walter & Mata?

Great news. He might get enough PAs to give us an idea about how much we might count on him for 2023 and beyond. (I think we find a 1 year 1Bman over the winter.)

There are no longer one game for WC match-up. The 3rd best division winner joins the 3 WC teams for a 3 game series at the higher record's home field, but yes, 2 teams will be sent packing in the first round, in b oth leagues. The 3rd Div winner & 3 WC teams have a much lower chance of winning it all that the teams with first round byes. Having to win 3 series sure beats having to win 4.

I agree. In 2021, Cora got credit for sticking with guys like Dalbec, Kike and Renfroe, who struggled early, but then he should get dinged for sticking with players like Dalbec, Diekman and others, this year. Our 40 man roster is way stronger than 2020 and significantly stronger than 2021. This is the area Bloom addressed right out of the gate, and it shows. Given a larger budget, Bloom was finally given the chance to address the top of the 26 man roster. So far, Story has been a letdown, despite his RBI total keeping him from being a total disaster out of the gate. Wacha & Strahm carried us for a while. Last spring's waiver wire pick-up of Schreiber is looking like the type of "gems in the rough" finds the Rays were famous for making, when Bloom was there. Refsnyder is quickly proving to be a similar type find. So far, we've seen 20 players get 3 or more PAs and 14 with 80 or more. The bottom 5 of those 14 have done much better than the bottom 5 of 2021. PAs Player OPS 203 Cordero .713 127 Arroyo .640 101 Duran .763 91 Plawecki .487 80 Refsnyder .957 2021: 271 Marwin .567 173 Plawecki .737 136 Cordero .497 127 Santana .597 112 Duran .578 (+82 Chavis .549/ 75 Arauz .643) The biggest gains have come from the SP'er pick-ups as compared to 2021's: IP Pitcher ERA 2021 137 Richards 4.87 114 Perez 4.74 73 Whitlock 1.96 2022 71 R Hill 4.20 70 Wacha 2.69 36 Davis 2.48 (much pen than starter) Pen 2021 62 Ottavino 4.21 53 Sawamura 3.06 37 Andriese 6.03 (DFA'd) 2022 36 Davis 2.48 31 Danish 4.02 31 Diekman 3.48 29 Schreiber 0.62 28 Strahm 3.58 25 Robles 5.84