moonslav59

He's better than what we expected from Wacha, too. I like him more than I liked Gio, and 1 year is better than 2.

How do we rank #2-5?

Trusting a 36 year old pitchers with ERA-/ERA+ in the #3-#4 range seems like we are repeating the same strategy that has failed from Richards to Buehler, but IMO, Gray is the second best starting pitcher we have added since the Nate trade in 2018. (Crochet is the clear #1.) That being said, the comp group is headlined by Wacha, who missed key time in his one and done year.

That dollar amount includes the 2027 $10M buyout.

I think many teams want Gore, and trusting prospects is not ideal. The Sox have some highly ranked prospects, and we aren't handing a rotation slot to any of them.

I agree, even if his ERA-/ERA+ places him in the 61-90 group (#3's.)

So? I like Gray. He's better than Sandoval. Crawford & Co. and probably better than Bello in 2026. I had hoped we'd do better, but we didn't use up the trade capital I was expecting to give up for Ryan or Lodolo, so if we use that capital in a good way, I might be fine with the winter moves as a whole.

The Sox have 6 SP'er at 0.9 or more, 6 over 1.1 and 3 over 1.7. The Yanks have 6 over 0.9, 5 over 1.1 and 4 over 1.7. TOR has 5 over 0.0, 5 over 1.1 and 4 over 1.7 Kinda what I expected: we are heavy on quantity not quality.

IMO, he's a decent #3, who has some numbers that show he's a high #2. He's better than Crawford, but may not do much better than Gio did in 2025.

I've listed the numbers several times, including fWAR and FIP, which hold Gray in a more glamorous light. He they are a 4th or 5th time: K-BB% (I have showed he has not declined here) 17.0>24.4>21.6 (but slightly from '24>'25) fWAR: 5.4>3.8>3.6 (YES, very slight decline '24-'25) bWAR: 5.6>1.8>1.4 (Clear and continuing decline) ERA+: 157>107>96 (Clear decine) ERA-: 65>95>104 (Clear 2 year decline) FIP: 2.83>3.12>3.39 (an almost perfect straight line decline.) They guy has gotten worse, but is still pretty good. We don't have to deny the decline to thiink he's still good.

He was better in '24 than '25. He was better in '23 than '24.

That was the strategy when we had 10 holes to fill. I don't see many positions needing improvement, but the ones we have are doozies. IMO< we had 3 big holes and need 3 big pluses. We filled one to some extent.

I get that, but the gap between Bello, who most view as a #3 and Crochet is a wide one.

Yes. I posted them. He's also 36 and is on a 2 year trend downwards, already.

That's how I see it, too. Same with bringing Bregman back- it's just not an improvement. (Replacing Breggie with Bichette might be a push, as well.) Were is our big plus coming from? If the idea is Casas at 1B, what other position is left? (Please don't say Realmuto at catcher.)

Fitts might have earned a pen slot, but I agree- others looks like very similar choices.

I agree. FYI, Crochet's drop off at the end of 2024.. ERA/FIP in 2024 3.07/2.32 first 21 GS 5.19/3.86 last 11 starts 2025: 2.24/2.51 first 23 GS'd 3.47/3.78 last 9 starts

While true, there was a big gap between Bello and Crochet, and Sonny is very close to Bello not Crochet. We hoped it was more in the middle, at worst. We are better with Gray than Crawford/Dobbins/Sandoval/Harrison.

That is a concerning aspect of Gray's portfolio, but it is just a 7 game sample size, and he was facing some good offensive teams. (.895 OPSA at Fenway and .812 vs Sox batters H & A.) He does have this... .672 v BAL .685 v TOR .701 v NYY Do you buy this ting? (.772 v TBR is not good.)

xFIP does, so what of that stat? I still value ERA+ and ERA- more, and I also look at K-BB% and OPS Against. Gray's .726 OPSA is not great and not #2 material, to me, and when you couple that with ERA+/-, I'm seeing him as a #3. Valdez .667 Bello .669 Giolito .685 My guess is Brez & Co. think Casas is one answer, so no to Alonso. I doubt we sign a DH like Schwarber, so that leaves sideways moves like Bregman or Bichette or a bold move to trade for K Marte. I don't see K Marte as enough to replace Devers and Bregman combined. That would be putting a lot of faith in Casas, Mayer and 300 more PAs from Anthony, and that's if we still have Duran and Abreu after trading for KMarte.

I dont think Gray is a dandelion. I think he has the upside to be a Rose, but at age 36, I doubt it. Some stats show he's a Rose, and with the posters talking him up, it seems they have always valued FIP, so I don't think they are stretching to find silver linings. Maybe some will be happy with Gray replacing Gio and Bregman coming back as a push. Maybe some will be upset but not by enough to raise a storm. I'll be pissed, but I'm always going to be a Sox fan. I've been a fan through worse than this and longer than this. I think our future looks brighter with so many really good players- many locked up for many years, as well as more young pitching prospects than I've ever seen on a Sox team, at least since the Clemens, Hurst and Ojeda years. I've call what these guys have been doing a "sham." I think the sham ended last winter, but with the Devers dump and the loss of Bregman and Gio, they must prove it's still over, or I'll be driving the sham wagon, again. We have a window that can be wide open for 4-5 years- maybe even more. In the past, it seems like JH has been good at realizing that and acting accordingly. I will not project he'll do that this winter, because I'm skeptical, but I'm not going all doom & gloom until the winter additions are over. I preferred better than Gray, but IMO he's better than Wacha/Hill, Buehler, Gio, Sandoval and all the others that flamed out. My top priorities were a mega bat to replace Devers, a solid #2 SP and another good bat. We got a borderline 2/3 SP'er and have yet to address the offense. Time will tell, but I'm watching every Sox game I can, until I die, even if we add nobody else.

Nobody is buying the idea than a Dandelion is a Rose. It won't be tolerated.

I never fully bought into the whole "wilts in the spotlight" thing. Sometimes pitchers just have a bad year. He was coming off two injury shortended seasons in that bad 2018 season. It's notable that his worst season was with OAK- certainly no spotlight's there. He's had only 3 seasons below 100 ERA+ 2016 OAK 2018 NYY 2025 STL His next 3 worst seasons: STL, CIN, OAK, so one of his worst 6 seasons was in NY. His 2017 season was in the middle with a 122 ERA+.

Those are numbers, how do you rate them? Would it take a similar package as Crochet's to get Ryan? (No way Gore should get close to what the CWS got for GC.)

His contract is, but yes, if we add 2 infielders, that add offense, then he's fine at DH. I'm not sure I'd count Casas as one of those infield additions, but Brez & Co probably are. (I doubt we sign Alonso. Maybe we add J Bell or Hoskins.) If we settle on just Bregman or Bichette, our offense did not get any better than it was opening day 2025 (with Devers & Bregman- not to mention Refsnyder.) If add just one bat, to me K Marte would be the best, and since we hardly used any major trade capital to get our SP'er, I think we can find a way to outbid everyone else for KMarte. We'll have to make do with Mayer/Romy at 3B and Casas (Romy) at 1B with Masa (Romy or Ref?) at DH. If we only add one bat, I might switch my call to trade Duran, but instead trade Rafaela with others for KMarte. We'd need Duran's bat. This might be the line-up, which still looks worse than the one with Devers, Bregman and Anthony: 1. L Anthony CF 2. S KMarte 2B 3. L Duran LF 4. L Casas 1B 5. R Story SS 6. L Abreu RF (R Ref RF) 7. L Masa DH/ R Ref or Romy DH 8. R Narvaez C 9. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B