moonslav59

We keep hearing, "last year's stats don't count- only this year," yet Bogey is still being praised. BTW, I'm not trying to bash Bogey. I hope we can bring him back, but I think I'm not the only one picking and choosing who to pick on and who to defend when thinking they are being picked on, too much. Our leaders have not been leading to well, this year- before and after the deadline that took away the irreplaceable Vaz.

He might still be very good, and the fact that he looks really good for an inning or outing here and there, when he's healthy does not mean his stuff has not diminished. When pitching since 2018, he has not been the same Chris Sale. Every pitcher looks good or great for an inning or outing every so often. I'm not saying he can't or won't return to or close to his former self, but he hasn't, so far.

Your aunt does have balls.

The returning big gun vets have all but disappeared: Last 7 days: .762 JD .654 Bogey .444 Dalbec .366 Devers The Calvary: .783 Pham .661 Hosmer .429 McGuire The others: 5.000 Franchy 1.714 Refsnyder 1.000 Plawecki .852 Dugo (a returning vet, but he messes up my chart) .815 Arroyo .688 Kike .490 Duran Last 14 days (Not on the 26 right before the deadline) 5.000 Franchy 1.714 Refsnyder 1.014 Dugo .903 Pham .839 Arroyo .699 McGuire .688 Kike .630 Duran .619 JD .572 Bogey .548 Hosmer .529 Dalbec .500 Ja Davis .478 Plawecki .467 Devers

Blasphemy! We are talking about our beloved team leader, here. Sham on you.

Only 1 of our top 5 returning vets improved, and Devers is now seriously slumping. Only 3 of our top 9 returning vets improved (Devers, Vaz and Arroyo) Only 5 of our top returning 13 vets improved. So, 5-8 with returning vets. We lost bigtime in RF (Renfroe to JBJ). We gained on Story replacing Marwin, Chavis and Iggy at 2B We probably about broke even on Refsnyder, Pham & Hosmer replacing Schwarber & Santana in the OF, 1B and DH. So, maybe 1-1-1 at the replacement positions. 6-9-1 overall - not counting pitching.

The OPS+ numbers are good ones to use, as they factor in the league wide decline in OPS from 2021 to 2022. Sorry, if this is too complicated or fancy for the anti-metric crowd, but here is a look at the OPS+ disparities from 2021 to 2022 (Note the PA differentials, as well, and the 2022 season is not over.) Listed in order of most PAs in 2021: 1. 134 Devers (664)>149 (458 #3)) 2. 128 JD M (634)> 117 (450 #4) 3. 107 Dugo (604)> 102 (480 #2) 4. 129 Bogey (603)> 126 (487 #1 5. 108 Kike (585)> 72 (259 #9) 6. (Renfroe: see below) 7. 77 Vazquez (498)> 110 (318 #6) 8. 107 Dalbec (453)> 78 (317 #7) 9. (Marwin: see below) 10. 103 Arroyo (181)> 109 (208 #11) 11. 98 Plawecki (173)> 41 (146 #13) 12. (Schwarber: see below) 13. 34 Cordero (136)> 89 (245 #10) 14. (Santana: see below) 15. 53 Duran (112)> 81 (206 #12) 16 & 18. (Chavis & Iggy: see below) 16. 70 Arauz (75)>> -100 (12 #22) 19. 120 Shaw (48)> -100 (19 #21) Replaced Players: (First number is PA Ranking in 2021) 5. 114 Renfroe (572)>> 61 JBJ (290 #8) 8. 53 Marwin (271)>> 97 Story (342 #5) 11. 155 Schwarber (168)>> 158 Refsnyder (116 #14) 13. 58 Santana (127)>>121 Pham (76 #15.) & 73 Hosmer (45 #16) 15. 43 Chavis (82)>>-6 Sanchez (44 #17) 17. 144 Iggy (64)>> 18 Downs (41 #18)

He pitched okay in the ALCS but that was outweighed by his ALDS game. 9 IP 8 ER in the post season, last year. Also, from 2019-2022, his numbers have been good, but not ace-like. 2019-2022 4.09 ERA (117 ERA+) 3.43 FIP 1.140 WHIP 5.50 K/BB 2017-2018 w Sox 2.56 ERA (175 ERA+) 2.25 FIP 0.924 WHIP 7.08 K/BB w CWS 3.00 ERA (135 ERA+) 1.065 WHIP 4.78 K/BB I'm not doubting Sale can and has pitched well, when healthy, after 2018, but not like an ace.

There were hopes Paxton would arrive in time, this year, to give us a final push. Now, assuming we take the $13M x 2 option, we will be essentially be paying him $32M/2, which is about Nate money but for half the years. I think the guy can be a big help, but if we count on anything from Sale or Paxton, next year, we are setting ourselves up for something unpleasant. We need a solid #1 or 2, or IMO, we will be punting 2023 away. Maybe we can get lucky, but even if Paxton and Sale come back strong, next year, having an ace doesn't cause any sort of bottleneck. It would likely mean Houck & Whitlock stay in the pen and Pivetta becomes our 4th or 5th starter, not our 2 or 3.

Yup. Honest question: do we make the playoffs, if Bogey, JD, Nate & Kike give us close to what we expected? They were all keys to our 2021 success and only JD is post-prime.

Fire Bloom & Cora, NOW!

Yes, they were so full of energy and optimism going into the deadline. Trading Diekman for McGuire broke their morale backs.

Bloom should have known these guys were about to decline and traded all 3, last winter. The fans would have called him a genius!

But whatever you do, keep yourself from saying Bloom sucks.

That was a tough loss. Can't seem to get those 3 run jacks anymore. Guys come up with men on, and then homer when the bases are empty. Every loss like this is a two game swing in the standing vs the team we are playing. Just flip one game each vs BAL, TOR & TBR and the records would look like: 64-56 TBR 64-56 TOR 63-59 BOS 62-59 BAL I know, big if...

Mr. AAAA!

No, the team leader has a no trade clause!

I've come to call him... Freakin' Chris Sale!

Our next DH?

Big loss for the Jays.

He rolled the dice on the $7M option on Vaz at catcher, after trying to acquire Stalling s from PIT: We won. He rolled the dice with a career OPS .800+ batter (Dalbec), Shaw and our #1 prospect, Casas, at 1B and we lost. He rolled the dice on Story at 2B. We lost for 2022. No dice rolls at CF, LF, SS and 3B with mixed results. He rolled the dice in RF w JBJ, and we lost. He rolled the dice with a guy named Refsnyder at 4th OF, Refsnyder and won. He rolled the dice with Arroyo aay utility IF'er, and due to another injury- mixed results. No dice roll with Eovaldi and Pivetta, but b oth declines. Rolled on Wacha: win. Rolled on Hill: meh at $5M. Rolled the dice on Sale & Paxton: Lost. Rolled the dice on the kids as SP'er depth: mixed results. Rolled on Strahm: win. No roll on Whitlock & Houck: both broke even or declined a bit. Rolled the dice on the pen depth: actually, mixed results, but most likely view it as a loss. Pretty much mixed results. If you compare declines by returning vets vs expected results from additions, I think the returnees (Non dice-rolled) did worse.

As it turns out, defense isn't everything.

Wong and RHern have been basically alternating playing catcher and DH at Woo. Both are around .750-.775. Wong went 1-3 w BB (.777), while RHern went 2-4 w HR (.756.) Almonte walked twice and went 1-2 w a 2b. Casas went 1-4 in today's loss. Keller 6IP 4H 3ER 3BB 2K, German 1 IP 0H oER 0BB 1K. Greenville won 9-4. Ferguson went 2-4 w HR and 3RBI. Jimenez is waking up a bit (2.4.) Sikes walked 3 times, scored twice and got an rbi, all without a hit. Hickey got another walk and a rare K. .

Yes, too soon to give up. Since we play 3 of the teams that are ahead of us, we just need to beat them, or beat the hell out of 2 of them to be firmly in the race. Every game we play against these guys are 2 game swings.

I’m thinking he meant”never” by the end of 2024, unless…