moonslav59

Maybe not even then, but going to free agency risks a lot.

Who put 2023?

A lot to digest here, Nick, but hey, what else can we do? JBJ's final option year is $12M mutual option with a whopping $8M buyout, so I seriously doubt we pay that $8M for him not to play vs $12M for him to play- a $4M net. I'll go piece-by-piece: Not sure what kind of money Xander and Devers are looking...... Per Cot's....selected final year contracts $22.0M JD $16.0M David Price $12.0M JBJ $07.0M Vaz $07.0M Wacha $05.0M Hill $01.5M Sawamura $70.5M Total coming off 2023 payroll (Moon, any 'penalty' for options not picked up ie JBJ as an example will be charged off to 2022 season). I have to think Bogey will get $28M x 7, minimum- more likely $30+M x 8+. Devers is harder to call, since he'll have one arb left after this year. Both are not great defenders, but their bats will be expensive. I think Devers might get $30M x 9 after 2023. (Not adjusting for inflation) Maybe $32M x 10. He'll be 27 in 2 years. Bogey will be 30 in 1 year. We will need a catcher, DH, outfield depth, three starters to be replaced (Eovaldi, Wacha and Hill). DH might come from Dalbec, if Casas wins the 1B job by 2023. I guess Dalbec could play 3B, if we don't keep Devers or trade him before losing him. I think we'll extend Eovaldi, his current tax payroll is $17M, so that may go up to say $22M, or delta of $5M, leaves us with $65M. I'm not sure we keep Eovaldi. He'll be 33 in a year. Maybe on a 2-3 year deal, but he will seek longer terms. I will assume that Paxton will return 100% heathy for 2023, thus only one starter needs to be replaced.....this is the critical area, someone within the organization has to step up and take a starter's role, and I don't think it's asking too much...no additional money needed I'm pretty sure we add a big named starter, but this would be an alternative 1. Sale 2. Paxton 3. Pivetta 4. Houck 5. Whitlock We'd need massive pen building. We'll need a DH, best case scenario is for Casas and Dalbec to step in to play 1B/DH. We can spend $10M for a OF/1B/DH, leaving us with $55M. Yes, or someone else steps in, like Yorke or Jordan, but both are just 19, now. We can budget for $5M for Vaz replacement...doable.' To get a good catcher, it will likely cost more. Many of my proposed trades on BTV involve acquiring a young and promising catcher. Thus we have a war chest of $50M+ to keep Xander in Boston (I doubt we'll pay $10M, more likely $25M (delta of $5) and couple of more years added). It's hard to imagine us letting Betts & Bogey go, but to me, if it comes down to Bogey vs Devers, I'm firmly on the Devers Forevers bandwagon. I think we'll keep Kike, it may cost us say $12.5M for 2 years, delta of another $5M, we still have $40M+ for Devers' extension. I hope we keep him, too, but he may be more costly than $13M per year. Based on Dever's expected pay of $11M for 2022 season, even at $30M extension, that's delta of say $20M. Gotta keep him! Sox still has $20M+ to pay for arbitration raises for 2023 and some bullpen additions. Sounds about what will be needed. Key will be a starting pitcher or two emerging within the system and both Casas and Dalbec becoming a 'major' league talent. We have extended Kike for additional $5M, acquired a catcher for $5M, acquired outfielder/1B/DH veteran for $10M, Eovaldi extended for additional $5M, Xander extended at $25M and Devers signed to a $30M contract. I doubt Sale opts out, just to cover all the basis. Bloom's biggest signing maybe Devers. I'm sure Bloom is reading this as I type. Keeping both Bogey and Devers will almost certainly restrict what we can spend on pitching for the next 7-9 years. For this reason, we may not keep both. That begs the question on who we trade rather than get nothing for them but a draft pick. This is the big choice.

Good one!

12:22, right?

Exactly. What puzzles me even more is that we did not want to pay him what MIL ended up offering him. Then, after his worst season ever, suddenly he's worth it. Looking at the contract makes it look even worse: The Brewers paid just $6.5M for 2021. When you count the $8M buy out, his remaining salary is... $17.5M/1 (turning down the 2023 option) or $21.5M/2 (assuming they take the $12M 2023 option) I know Renfroe was due to et arb raises, but we didn't have to go to arb with him- like the Rays did after 2020. The fact that he hits lefty, like Verdugo and Duran makes it look like, dare I say again, a real "head-scratcher."

What about pitchers needing to adjust to a new hitter?

Will any of these guys make even half of what JBJ will be paid in the next 1-2 years? Current MLB Free Agents: Brett Gardner (LHB) Kevin Pillar Odubel Herrera (LHB) Delino DeShields Billy Hamilton Roman Quinn Ender Inciarte (LHB) Cameron Maybin Travis Jankowski (LHP) Jake Marisnick Juan Lagares UZR/150 last 3 years CF 15.8 Hamilton 15.2 Kike 14.1 Kiermaier (LHB with negative trade value on BTV) 4.3 JBJ 1.5 Inciarte 0.4 R Quinn 0.1 DeShields -2.0 Pillar -2.4 Verdugo -4.6 Lagares -5.4 Herrera -7.1 Marisnick RF 11.0 Pillar 3.1 Renfroe

Okay, Billy Hamilton costs 15 cents. He even hit .620 in 2021, but yes, .568 in his previous 500 or so PAs and .598 in his last 1000. (Jackie is at .665 in his last 1200 PAs.) I'm not trying to tout Hamilton's offense: he may be the worst in MLB at the plate, but when we are talking about playing 2 OF'ers vs a LHP, here are the career splits: .674 Verdugo .674 JBJ (.717 v RHPs) .603 Hamilton (.623 v RHPs) It's not a huge loss on offense v RHPs. Now, look at 2021... 2021 .760 Hamilton .554 Verdugo .438 Duran .528 JBJ (He did kill lefties in 2020- 69 PAs at .900)

Major League Baseball announced they’ve canceled all Spring Training games through March 7.

Yes... Vaz.

JBJ's defensive metrics have slipped, too. Besides, I did not mean Pillar, specifically, but someone like him are close to a dime-a-dozen. CF Defensive Metrics 2013-2015>2016-2018>2019>2021 UZR/150 JBJ 11.3>7.4>4.3 Pillar 7.4>8.0> -2.0 Dyson 13.0>12.9> 4.1 Hamilton 11.7>10.4> 15.8 Marisnick 12.0> 4.6> -7.1 Kiermaier 16.0> 15.4> 14.1 DRS/Innings JBJ 17/1319> 29/3717> 14/2440> (slipping but still solid) Pillar 17/1348> 33/3809> -15/1775 (bad slip) Dyson 20/1501> 26/1568> 7/1002 (too old, now) Hamilton 24/2220> 38/3356> 11/1162 (hit tool is the worst) Marisnick 23/1273> 24/1753> 5/1101 (slipping, too) Kiermaier 39/1474/> 58/2449> 35/2290 (apparently, on the block)

In LF, correct?

Steve Adams from MLBTR... Red Sox right-hander Garrett Whitlock proved to be a sensational find in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, emerging as a key reliever who helped fuel Boston’s return to the postseason in 2021. Whitlock, who’s been a starter for the majority of his career, tells Stan Grossfield of the Boston Globe that he enjoys starting and “love the routine behind it and everything,” but he took a team-first approach in adding that the competitor in him will work in any role he’s asked. The Sox, however, clearly haven’t ruled out the possibility of Whitlock transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation at some point, though, as the right-hander himself explained. “They told me to come in prepared to be, like, fighting for a starting job, and they’ll reevaluate it from there,” says Whitlock. “So I’m going to build up and I’m going to go in and be as prepared as I can be.” The comments from Whitlock come amid a much lengthier profile of the right-hander — an interesting look at his back story and journey to the Majors, wherein he even opines that Tommy John surgery “saved his life” by giving him the needed downtime for valuable introspection and to get into a better place, mentally, than he had been previously. Matt Barnes’ 2021 was a tale of two seasons, as the Red Sox righty pitched to a dominant 2.25 ERA with a 42% strikeout rate through his first 44 innings before his performance fell off a cliff. Barnes yielded a dozen runs, surrendered four homers and walked nine batters in his final 10 2/3 innings of the season — a stretch of 10.13 ERA ball that led to what would’ve previously been an unthinkable omission from the postseason roster. Barnes, who signed a two-year extension worth $18.75MM in the midst of that hot streak during July, spoke to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com about the manner in which his season spiraled out of control and expressed confidence in a 2022 rebound. Barnes called it the “craziest year of his life” and a “perfect storm” of circumstances that led to his struggles, beginning with the development of some bad habits when he’d pitched quite a bit in a short period of time. He then missed more than two weeks after a positive Covid-19 test and feels he “ran out of time” to recalibrate and get back into form. He’s owed $7.25MM in 2022 and $7.5MM in 2023 before the Sox must decide on an $8MM option for 2024, so a return to the form he showed up through early August is particularly important for both Barnes and the club.

I do agree that the defense was one of our biggest weaknesses, if not #1, and Renfroe's arm hid a lot of his short-comings on defense. When we signed Renfroe, I thought Verdugo would be in RF and Renfroe in left. Yes, this "wastes" his arm, but it looks like we hated his D anyway. My thought was geared towards the multitude of RH'd hitting ace defenders out there, some from the waiver wire, who hit better than JBJ, last year. I know; I know, JBJ is due for a positive regression and Renfroe was due for a negative one. I'd be curious who else was out there in a Renfroe trade offer. (If nobody, couldn't we have just non-tendered him and signed someone like Pillar?

It's not a big need, but having 3 lefty OF'ers, with the best one having pretty bad splits and knowing 2 will likely play everyday, makes facing LHPs kind of unnecessarily awkward.

I'm not impressed with any ALE rotation, so my hopes remain high. We also may see Whitlock or Houck join the rotation, so that may add a big boost. It's always hard to project these things, but here's a quick stab at it. 2021>2022 (812 IP by starters in 2021; let's assume the same in 2022) 182 Eovaldi> 182 157 ERod (-157)+ 43 Sale> 200 Sale 154 Pivetta> 174 (+20) 110 Richards (-110)> 100 Hill (-10) 100 Perez (-100)> 90 Wacha (-10) 59 Houck + 7 Others (-7)> 66 Houck Will Sale pitch better than ERod? Can he get 200 IP? Will Hill, Wacha and Paxton be better than Richards & Perez? I don't see any clear pluses or minuses, except the hopes that Sale might be great.

It still makes little sense to me. Had we gotten a RH'd JBJ, maybe a little more sense. (This is also one reason why I think Suzuki to BOS may happen.) Maybe Bloom knows more about these prospects than we and some of these ranking services know, but to me, they might have a better chance at helping the Sox in a significant way than JBJ does. (This from someone who thought of JBJ as his favorite Sox player for many years.)

Like you, I'd offer him a fair deal, but if he says no, I might wait until the deadline or next winter to think about trading him. I get how his value dips, but I like our chances to win, next year, assuming we add someone like Suzuki and/or acquire a legit closer.

Even then, he's one of 3 lefty-hitters for 2 slots. Verdugo is not being benched. hell, they wouldn't even platoon Alex. The only way Duran plays is if JBJ really bites the dust. (I doubt he's even on the 26 man roster, if Suzuki is signed and Verdugo, JBJ, JD and Kike are healthy.

With Suzuki, he might not play much at all, unless someone gets hurt or JBJ hits .485 OPS.

I think they liked their chances in 2019, so they avoided trading him, then. Sox nation would have been loco had they dealt him right after a ring year. Maybe summer of 2019 might have worked better. I like 5 years of Verdugo for 1 year of Betts. I'm not torn up we didn't get more.

I felt the same about Mookie, but I'm glad we "got something for him." I'm not sure we could have gotten much better, and maybe we should have stuck to the first offer. Getting no pitching from a team rich in young pitching talent certainly looks suspect.

One reason I might trade Duran, is if I don't think he's going to be as good as other GMs think he is or might be. It doesn't help that he's a lefty hitter, either. Another might be, if we sign Suzuki or add another, better OF'er.

Well, when you respond to my post and say, "so you just going to let him walk out the door without getting anything for him?" I take that to mean the "you" to mean "me."