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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. To me, Devers is worth $320M/11 or 12, and would likely get that. I'm thinking $320M/14 is no more hurtful, and if Devers can still be a plus at years 12, 13 & 14, it's a better deal. Teams sometimes spread out the payments beyond the contract years, so this is no different, except maybe Devers can still play at ages 36-38. Many players still produce at that age, and Devers is special. I think he cans till DH at those ages.
  2. I get that, really I do. I'm thinking of a way to get Devers to stay, and I'm not si sure Devers will be a burden, like Miggy or Pujols were, because his AVV, even before figuring expected inflation will be much lower, and he will be younger than they were, when he hits the back-end of the contract. We all know, the AVV and lux tax seems to matter more than actual dollars to Henry. (Dice-K, Rusney, Moncada...) I understand the risk, but I think the low cost and AVV on the front end outweighs the back end risks. This is not like signing a 31 year old pitchers to $31M x 7. It's signing a 25 year old everyday player to 14 and about 2/3 the cost per year- not counting inflation. Who knows, maybe $22M will be chump change in $9 years.
  3. So, maybe .660 to break even and .700 to be a nice plus?
  4. But paying Devers just $20M, when he's worth nearly $30M for the first 8 years makes up for the last 6. Miggy is not making $20M, and when you figure inflation and when Miggy was signed, this is apples to oranges.
  5. We all know, he won't take $200/8 or even $220/8. My point about offering him 12-14 years is about finding a way we might keep him, while also lowering the AVV. I get the risk of signing anyone to even 10 years, let alone 12-14, but at his age, it's not so crazy. The difference between $220/8 and $320/14 is that he might take the $320, and we keep a valuable & loveable player. The "extra $100M" can be viewed as paying that for his final 6 years. That's under $17M a year for ages 33-38. Sure, that looks like a big gamble, but with inflation and the added benefit of dropping the AVV from $27.5 to $22.9 allows us to more easily reset every now and then over the first 8 years of the deal. Of course the last 6 might be a burden, but it might not, if Devers ages well..
  6. You would not pay Devers $5M x 6 years added to the end of his contract at ages 31 to 36? To me, that's a steal. The added benefit is that it radically brings down the AVV, and he will likely be a good DH during years 9 to 14.
  7. Yes, certainly there is a significant chance he ends up as a net plus, even if his defense may slip a little as he ages. The question is, what does he have to hit to break even (or out net Renfroe?) .625? .650? .675? .700?
  8. It all comes down to the idea that his defense will outweigh his poor offense to become a net plus.
  9. So does Hamilton. Speaking of K's, Downs has 15 in 27 ABs. Cordero 12 in 34 ABs.
  10. Here's a closer look at Sox big spending (Free Agents, IFAs & Extensions) since 2007: (Help me fill in any missing big deals.) 2007: $70M/5 JD Drew $52M/4 Papi $52M/6 Dice-K (plus mega posting fee) $36M/4 Lugo $30M/3 Beckett 2008: $38M/3 Lowell 2009: $41M/4 Youk $41M/6 Pedey $30M/5 Lester 2010: $83M/5 Lackey 2011: $142M/7 Crawford $68M/4 Beckett 2012: $154M/7 AGon $30M/4 Buchholz 2013: $39M/3 Vic $27M/2 Dempster $26M/2 Ortiz 2014: $110m/8 Pedey $73M/7 Rusney $32M/2 Napoli 2015: $95M/5 Pablito $88M/4 HRam $32M bonus Moncada (plus mega posting fee) $18M/2 Uehara 2016: $217/7 Price $83M/4 Porcello $16M/1 Ortiz 2017: 2018: $110M/5 JD M 2019: $68M/4 Eovaldi $20M/1 Betts (arb) $12M/1 Bogey (arb) 2020: $145M/5 Sale $120M/6 Bogey 2021: $14M/2 Kike $10M/1 Richards 2022: $140M/6 Story $19M/2 Barnes $10M/1 Paxton
  11. If you adjust for inflation, 2 of the larges and longest 5 (or 6) deals under Henry were for starting pitchers: $217/7 Price $142/7 Crawford $110/5 JD M $95.0/5 Pablito $88.0/4 HRam (Is 4 years long term?) $82.5/5 Lackey (Does 5 years of inflation catch HRam?) 3 of top 8 (add JD Drew and Eovaldi)
  12. This is what the Sox are known for doing. (Not always "young," but they trade for their aces and #2's a lot.
  13. So, you'd rather pay $240M/8 than $290/14?
  14. Hamilton and Binelas are both off to great starts in very limited sample sizes.
  15. Portland pulled out a win 4-3 by scoring 2 in the 9th. 15 Ks and 0 BBs by Seadogs pitchers. Murphy 5 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K German closed: 2 IP, 1H, 0 BB, 4 K Greenville won 9-6 Rafaela, McDonough, Binelas and Flores had 2 hits. Esplin had 3. Salem won 5-0. Gonzalez 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9K
  16. Would you give him $290M/14?
  17. There is nothing to gain by BorA$$ (and Bogey) to lie about this.
  18. Well, lying about a low-ball offer is not going to want the Sox to want to sign Bogey, so they'd lose a big bidder with nothing gained.
  19. It was still a pretty lame offer- like Lester's. It's not a good start and sends a clear signal, IMO.
  20. I think the defense might hurt his chances of approaching Seager money, too. Also, Correa will likely be on the market, again, too. T Turner, too.
  21. According to cots, these are our biggest FA pitcher signings: $217/7 Price '16 $82.5/5 Lackey '10 $68.0/4 Eovaldi '19 $26.5/2 Dempster '13 (retired after 2013) $25.5/4 Foulke '04 $25.5/3 Clement '05 $18.0/2 Uehara '15 $13.9/3 Viola '92 Not much of a history. We are more known for big extensions: Pedro, Lester, Beckett, Porcello, Sale... and the Dice-K addition. We are most known for trading for aces or good pitching: Pedro Schilling Beckett Porcello Sale
  22. True. I keep thinking we extended Eovaldi, but we did not. He became a FA, first. You did say "free agent," but I missed that.
  23. Wicky and Winky
  24. Maybe Lackey or the Beckett extension?
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