moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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To me, Devers is worth $320M/11 or 12, and would likely get that. I'm thinking $320M/14 is no more hurtful, and if Devers can still be a plus at years 12, 13 & 14, it's a better deal. Teams sometimes spread out the payments beyond the contract years, so this is no different, except maybe Devers can still play at ages 36-38. Many players still produce at that age, and Devers is special. I think he cans till DH at those ages.
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I get that, really I do. I'm thinking of a way to get Devers to stay, and I'm not si sure Devers will be a burden, like Miggy or Pujols were, because his AVV, even before figuring expected inflation will be much lower, and he will be younger than they were, when he hits the back-end of the contract. We all know, the AVV and lux tax seems to matter more than actual dollars to Henry. (Dice-K, Rusney, Moncada...) I understand the risk, but I think the low cost and AVV on the front end outweighs the back end risks. This is not like signing a 31 year old pitchers to $31M x 7. It's signing a 25 year old everyday player to 14 and about 2/3 the cost per year- not counting inflation. Who knows, maybe $22M will be chump change in $9 years.
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So, maybe .660 to break even and .700 to be a nice plus? -
But paying Devers just $20M, when he's worth nearly $30M for the first 8 years makes up for the last 6. Miggy is not making $20M, and when you figure inflation and when Miggy was signed, this is apples to oranges.
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We all know, he won't take $200/8 or even $220/8. My point about offering him 12-14 years is about finding a way we might keep him, while also lowering the AVV. I get the risk of signing anyone to even 10 years, let alone 12-14, but at his age, it's not so crazy. The difference between $220/8 and $320/14 is that he might take the $320, and we keep a valuable & loveable player. The "extra $100M" can be viewed as paying that for his final 6 years. That's under $17M a year for ages 33-38. Sure, that looks like a big gamble, but with inflation and the added benefit of dropping the AVV from $27.5 to $22.9 allows us to more easily reset every now and then over the first 8 years of the deal. Of course the last 6 might be a burden, but it might not, if Devers ages well..
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You would not pay Devers $5M x 6 years added to the end of his contract at ages 31 to 36? To me, that's a steal. The added benefit is that it radically brings down the AVV, and he will likely be a good DH during years 9 to 14.
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Yes, certainly there is a significant chance he ends up as a net plus, even if his defense may slip a little as he ages. The question is, what does he have to hit to break even (or out net Renfroe?) .625? .650? .675? .700?
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It all comes down to the idea that his defense will outweigh his poor offense to become a net plus.
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It sure seems that way.
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So does Hamilton. Speaking of K's, Downs has 15 in 27 ABs. Cordero 12 in 34 ABs.
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Here's a closer look at Sox big spending (Free Agents, IFAs & Extensions) since 2007: (Help me fill in any missing big deals.) 2007: $70M/5 JD Drew $52M/4 Papi $52M/6 Dice-K (plus mega posting fee) $36M/4 Lugo $30M/3 Beckett 2008: $38M/3 Lowell 2009: $41M/4 Youk $41M/6 Pedey $30M/5 Lester 2010: $83M/5 Lackey 2011: $142M/7 Crawford $68M/4 Beckett 2012: $154M/7 AGon $30M/4 Buchholz 2013: $39M/3 Vic $27M/2 Dempster $26M/2 Ortiz 2014: $110m/8 Pedey $73M/7 Rusney $32M/2 Napoli 2015: $95M/5 Pablito $88M/4 HRam $32M bonus Moncada (plus mega posting fee) $18M/2 Uehara 2016: $217/7 Price $83M/4 Porcello $16M/1 Ortiz 2017: 2018: $110M/5 JD M 2019: $68M/4 Eovaldi $20M/1 Betts (arb) $12M/1 Bogey (arb) 2020: $145M/5 Sale $120M/6 Bogey 2021: $14M/2 Kike $10M/1 Richards 2022: $140M/6 Story $19M/2 Barnes $10M/1 Paxton
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If you adjust for inflation, 2 of the larges and longest 5 (or 6) deals under Henry were for starting pitchers: $217/7 Price $142/7 Crawford $110/5 JD M $95.0/5 Pablito $88.0/4 HRam (Is 4 years long term?) $82.5/5 Lackey (Does 5 years of inflation catch HRam?) 3 of top 8 (add JD Drew and Eovaldi)
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This is what the Sox are known for doing. (Not always "young," but they trade for their aces and #2's a lot.
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So, you'd rather pay $240M/8 than $290/14?
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Hamilton and Binelas are both off to great starts in very limited sample sizes.
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Portland pulled out a win 4-3 by scoring 2 in the 9th. 15 Ks and 0 BBs by Seadogs pitchers. Murphy 5 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K German closed: 2 IP, 1H, 0 BB, 4 K Greenville won 9-6 Rafaela, McDonough, Binelas and Flores had 2 hits. Esplin had 3. Salem won 5-0. Gonzalez 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9K
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Would you give him $290M/14?
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There is nothing to gain by BorA$$ (and Bogey) to lie about this.
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Well, lying about a low-ball offer is not going to want the Sox to want to sign Bogey, so they'd lose a big bidder with nothing gained.
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It was still a pretty lame offer- like Lester's. It's not a good start and sends a clear signal, IMO.
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I think the defense might hurt his chances of approaching Seager money, too. Also, Correa will likely be on the market, again, too. T Turner, too.
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According to cots, these are our biggest FA pitcher signings: $217/7 Price '16 $82.5/5 Lackey '10 $68.0/4 Eovaldi '19 $26.5/2 Dempster '13 (retired after 2013) $25.5/4 Foulke '04 $25.5/3 Clement '05 $18.0/2 Uehara '15 $13.9/3 Viola '92 Not much of a history. We are more known for big extensions: Pedro, Lester, Beckett, Porcello, Sale... and the Dice-K addition. We are most known for trading for aces or good pitching: Pedro Schilling Beckett Porcello Sale
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True. I keep thinking we extended Eovaldi, but we did not. He became a FA, first. You did say "free agent," but I missed that.
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Wicky and Winky
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Maybe Lackey or the Beckett extension?
