moonslav59

Indeed, and if the idea is to reset in 2024, starting in 2023 might save $1-2M off the lux tax line after 2023.

You don't have to sell me on the mistake trade for JBJ. I was the wagon driver. As much as you and I did not have faith in Duran, he was the 4th OF'er- not RH'd but nevertheless a plan. Another point, all year I felt like Cora had a great reluctance to play Dugo in RF. I chalked that up as not thinking he could do it well enough to put him back there. Then, later they did. I'd have rather had Cordero in LF than 1B, and Dugo in RF rather than Duran anywhere. Not that this was a credible plan, either, but it seems better than what they tried.

Of those 4, I'd give the Yanks the least chance of winning it all.

I'd trade for a #1/2 starter and try to bring back Wacha. If we move Whitlock to the rotation, maybe we bring back Hill not Wacha. I'd rather we add Pablo Lopez and bring Wacha back and keep Houck and Whitlock in the pen. Add Fulmer or Montero to the pen, too. That should leave enough to sign Bogey or Swanson plus Nimmo and maybe some depth (C, DH, pen).

I'm not so sure they go large at catcher. I think they just add someone like McGuire or Stallings, and have Wong in AAA as depth. Pitching, SS, Pitching, RF, Pitching are out top priority. If we have anything left over... more pitching.

The Raffy extension could begin in 2024, if the plan is to reset in 2023.

I'd trade for Pablo Lopez. (Maybe Rafaela and a couple lower prospects) Sign Nimmo, Swanson, Wacha, Fulmer, Montero and Strahm. I'd work on extending Devers.

No. I'm assuming Whitlock, Houck or the __FA__ listed in the SP/RP section will be in the rotation.

GMs constantly have to weigh one need vs another. Most know they have left some slots in higher need than they want. Bloom made a mistake, here.

The 2 of 7 players highlighted in Red that should be traded or DFA'd seem to be much better than the bubble players of 2020, 2021 and pre-2022. I have us adding 6 free agents or players via trade(s.) It could be more. It might be less. We may try to find someone will to take 2-3 forty man roster players for 1 and improve the quality of the 40 man while not needing to DFA any of the players in red. The problem is, many teams value their 40 players and are looking to do the same. More likely, and 2 or 3 for 1 trade will involve promising prospects not needed to be added to the 40 man roster. I think our farm is now strong enough to make one trade like that, but I'm not sure Bloom & Co. see this as being the right time to pull off a trade like that, but adding a quality pitcher without adding much to the budget would go a long way at improving the 2023 team by allowing us to spend more on other high need areas. If the pitcher we acquire has 3+ years of team control, or acn be extended, then the trade could help in 2023 AND beyond. Maybe, I'mj ust dreaming.

To me, I think this is who should be on our 40 man roster, next year: (42 players listed: red are bubble) SP: __FA__, Sale, Pivetta, Bello, Mata, TWard (AAA), Walter (AAA) SP/RP: Whitlock, Houck, __FA__, Crawford, Winckowski (AAA), Seabold (AAA) RP: __FA__, Schreiber, __FA__, Barnes, Taylor, Kelly, German, Danish (AAA), Bazardo (AAA) C: McGuire, Wong, RHern (AAA) 1B: Casas 1B/DH: Dalbec, Hosmer 2B: Story, Arroyo, EValdez (AAA) 3B: Devers SS: __FA__, Downs (AAA) LF: Dugo, Almonte (AAA), Duran (AAA) CF: Kike, Rafaela (AAA) RF: __FA__, Refsnyder, Abreu (AAA) Trade or DFA: DHern, McGee, Chang, Ort, Brasier

I think Franchy will be gone, despite our lack of OF minor league depth that is ML ready. I think Duran and Downs will be given another year in AAA to show growth or be traded or cut loose. Even if they do well, I will not be excited seeing them get another chance at the ML level with the Sox. Maybe they can build trade value by doing very well in AAA. I'd also be fine saying good bye to Brasier, Dhern, Change, Ort, McGee and Almonte. We certainly have enough room to add 5-7 FAs and 4-5 Rule 5'ers plus EValdez, this winter without crying over a DFA or two.

T-Ward could be a very pleasant surprise to the 2023 Sox. Mata, too. The sheer number of ML ready or very near ML ready prospects for 2023 is astounding. Sure, many have little promise, but if just 1 of the 5-6 lower promise players succeed along with 1-2 from the middle 5 and 2-3 from the better 5-6 group, we might be looking at a solid 2023 roster by mid season. Bello Casas Mata (mid '23) Ward (mid-late '23) Rafaela (mid-late '23) Walter (mid-late '23) Wong Crawford Kelly German EValdez (mid '23) Winckowski Seabold Downs Murphy (mid-late '23) Duran (post prospect)

I think saying adding a minor league FA, so we don't count on Duran is an acceptable use of the Butterfly Man's name.

The Plan B would be a player signed to a minor league contract- perhaps with a date to be added to the ML roster or be released. We can't afford a RF'er and 4/5th OF'er on the budget. I doubt we go with 5 OF'ers on the 26, unless one DH's a big chunk of the time. Maybe Nimmo as RF and Mancini as DH/ corner OF and 1B depth, but even then, where do we go light, so we can afford those two?

I think the plan was to have Story fill the RH'd line-up gap lost with the Renfroe trade, and we'd just suck it up in the OF, when facing a lefty starter (22% of our games.) I think they felt JBJ, Duran, Dugo and Kike could do well enough to overcome that weakness on O vs LH'ers and JBJ would improve the defense by enough to not make the loss on O so bad. I think Arroyo was a patchwork failure. Refsnyder was a lucky find. Pham was too little -too late. The Kike slump and injury only made things worse, as it forced an already weak 4th OF'er into FT duty, but it also forced the Refsnyder call-up and success story.

I'd be fine with him as our 4th OF'er, but we need a FT RF'er- hopefully a RH'd or R/L batter. Adding a quality minor leaguer with ML experience would be better than counting on Duran. I don't think we have enough money to sign someone like Nimmo and a better 4th OF'er while also addressing so many other high need areas, as well.

Maybe, I'm wrong on my anti-playoffs are a crapshoot position.

Refsnyder was 2 PAs away from having the 4th most ST'ing PAs on the Sox. His .660 ST'ing OPS did not impress anyone. He, more or less, lucked into a chance after everything else failed. No way should he have been thought of as "part of the plan," early in the season. Bloom and Cora miscalculated the need. They miscalculated Arroyo's flexibility. They miscalculated JBJ and Duran's ability to hold their own on offense, with Duran's defense sucking as well.

I don't think Sox Nation would have been happy had Bloom/Cora said the RH'd corner OF bat need was solved with Refsnyder prior to opening day.

I'm not defending the lack of a RH'd OF bat on the early 2022 roster. I'm saying Story filled the line-up need for a solid RH'd bat with power, and solidified Kike's FT role in CF. Remember, he did start 49 games in the infield in 2021. The Story signing should have lessened that number, significantly and put a RH'd Kike's bat in the OF more often than 2021. That WAS NOT a solution to the problem, but should have lessened the need a little bit. Kike got hurt and did not hit well when healthy. That was not part of the plan. Refsnyder was not played much until June, but he did fill the need, nicely, so this whole Pham came too late thing rings a bit hollow. Bloom deserves criticism for not addressing the RH'd need at corner OF, but everything went wrong. Yes, we knew Duran had issues vs LH'd pitchers, but he totally sucked- even vs RH'ers. The Arroyo experiment failed. Thr Refsnyder experiment started late. Dugo even sucked early in the year, especially vs LH'ers. BTW, we faced 36 starting LH'ers, this year. Most came after Refsnyder became part of the OF rotation. We stuck with JBJ and Duran, too long. That's on Bloom and Cora. They both deserve some grief on this. I just don't think the plan was as bad as many make it out to be and that Story was meant to fix part of the problem that focused on about 22% of our games.

Not according to soxprospects.com: https://www.soxprospects.com/mlfa.htm I also found this... The following players burned their 2022 player option Eduard Bazardo Brayan Bello Ryan Brasier Kutter Crawford Tyler Danish Jaylin Davis Jeter Downs Jarren Duran Darwinzon Hernandez Ronaldo Hernandez Bryan Mata Kaleb Ort Connor Seabold Josh Winckowkski Connor Wong

Before we signed Story, some felt Kike and Arroyo would play 2B, and with Arroyo's health concerns, Kike may have played mroe 2B than anyone wanted. The Story signing filled the RH'd bat in the line-up need, but you are right- not the need for a RH'd OF'er. Making Kike the FT CF'er addressed that need a little bit, but we still needed a RH'd corner OF bat, and at the time, did not realize Refsnyder might have filled that need in April and May but was not given a long chance. I'm not defending the results, but the Story signing was designed to solve part of the issue in the OF and all of the RH'd line-up gap. Had we given Refsnyder the first chance in the OF over Duran, when Kike went on the IL, maybe we wouldn't be talking about this mistake, so much.

Agreed. They did still need a 4th OF'er, but I think they hoped Duran would do better. He would not have helped the RH'd need, but Refsnyder ended up filling the 4th OF'er/RH'd bat pretty well, but kinda too late. Story filled the RH'd bat need in the line-up. Duran and later, Refsnyder were too little too late in the OF, and losing Kike almost the whole year was too much to overcome.

I think the addition of the RH'd Story, which forced Kike to be the FT CF'er was how Bloom addressed the "RH'd hitting OF" gap. When Kike went on the IL, while JBJ was stinking up the place, then Story went out, the whole plan collapsed. It didn't help that 80% of our rotation went out around the same time, as well.