moonslav59

We may be losing some top batters, but I have to think we will be adding some good bats to replace the ones we lose. We are also losing some pathetic bats, too, and it is hard to imagine almost anyone we get not doing better than Dalbec, JBJ, Duran, Plawecki and others. Here is a breakdown of our OPS in order of most PAs in 2022. The ones in red may not get any or much fewer PAs in 2023/ the ones in Blue should get more PAs in 2023: .732 Dugo .833 Bogey .879 Devers .790 JD .629 Kike (hopefully at more like 2021 numbers than 2022 .737 Story (hopefully at a better OPS than 2022 .652 Dalbec .759 Vaz .736 Arroyo .578 JBJ .697 Cordero .672 Pham .645 Duran .881 Refsnyder .574 Plawecki .877 McGuire .766 Casas .585 Wong (needs to improve or be replaced) .631 Hosmer .322 Sanchez, .427 Downs, .697 Almonte, .782 JDavis, .596 Chang, .000 Arauz & Shaw (200+ PAs from these last scrubs, alone) Bogey, JD and Vaz (especially for a catcher) will not be easy to replace, offensively, but we may be able to improve on defense with there replacements and make up the offense with blue players. It's 1545 PAs lost by Bogey, JD and Vaz, but the total of bad offensive players lost or likely sharply declining in playing time is actually a higher number (over 1700): 353 Dalbec .652 290 JBJ .578 275 Cordero .697 235 Pham .672 223 Duran .645 175 Plawecki .574 200+ from scrubs Note: I make this same point every winter, and the following year has a new list of players doing poorly, so I'm not saying it is a cinch we replace all the bed OPS guys with better ones, but my point still stands. We have opportunities to improve in many areas without spending or making any major moves. Guys like Kike, Story, Casas, Refsnyder, McGuire, Arroyo and Dugo might show improvement enough to take up more than enough slack, but we need to not lose much at SS, DH and C.

Take away the top 3 game scores from every team, and it might not change the run scored differentials all that much.

Yes, I do. Before the Story signing, he had never come close to such a deal. The step from Story to Correa is less than the step he just took with Story. It's hard to know what Bloom will do when handed $80-90M to spend and only have 5-6 significant holes to fill- 2 of which are usually inexpensive RP roles. He's never been given this much, so we can't know what or how he will do. Here's the barrier: He can't spend $85M on 12 slots, b ecause we don't have that many roster slots to fill. He has to go quality over quantity, this year- a first for him.

USC had the best weekend, as they beat a top 20 team and watched a team ahead of them lose (TN) and a couple others struggle. I think they are in, if they beat ND. Yes, Mich or Ohio St have to lose. The SEC playoff game could know one out or put an extra one in. Lots to go.

It's really going to be interesting to see the effects of these shift and baserunning rules. I'm normally against rule changes that seem to be knee jerk in nature, but I think I may like the baserunning rule changes.

Then, maybe we should just trade Bello and the rest, before they show how much our system sucks.

That would have been nice from us.

The guys at SPs seemed to like Politi more than Wallace. Brasier is expected to make $2.3M on arb- time to cut ties.

Correa, Nimmo, Fulmer and Kluber would be inspiring.

He did not choose to have a tight budget, and many roster slots to fill that dumpster diving had to be part of his actions. When you dumpster dive and settle for lower paid FAs, one shouldn't expect many productive signings. Some of the good: Pivetta trade Renfroe & Kike signings Wacha, Strahm and Hill signing Arroyo, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Kelly signings and waiver claims McGuire trade Farm building trades (TBD) How Story turns out might be what most defines Bloom- that and this winter's moves.

He's not the pitcher he used to be, and hasn't been all that great in the last 2 years: 47 GS/244 IP 15-13 4.17 92 ERA+ 3.66 FIP 1.254 WHIP 4.1 K/BB

If he is signed, he should not be the centerpiece of the winter. God, I hope not.

(Bello Graduated) 1. Mayer 2. Casas 3. Bleis 4. Rafaela 5. Romero 6. Mata 7. Yorke 8. Paulino 9. Walter 10. Perales 11. Anthony 12. Wikelman 13. Wong 14. Valdez 15. Jordan 16. Lugo 17. Murphy 18. Bonaci 19. Hickey 20. Kavadas 21. T Ward 22. Abreu 23. Rodriguez-Cruz 24. Kelly 25. German 26. Coffey 27. Brannon 28. Drohan 29. Uberstine 30. Hamilton Dropped from top 30: Seabold, Downs

Highest Ranked Sox Prospects Left Unprotected on Rule 5: 9. Paulino 13. Wikelman 18. T Ward 19. Bonaci 37. R Fernandez 38. C Koss 39. Jimenez 43. Angel Bastardo 49. Politi 50. Wallace Updated rankings come out next week.

Soxprospects.com discussed why maybe Hamilton was protected, as some team might have taken him due to the new baserunning-improvement rules. They think Wikelman and Bonaci might be too far away, but with so many tanking teams, maybe they get taken. They discussed Ward and Politi as most likely to be taken. Wallace is too inconsistent, in their opinion. They had Abreu as 50-50. Basically, they said they would n ot have been surprised with Hamilton & Abreu being protected, if Ward had been, too. http://news.soxprospects.com/2022/11/podcast-ep-265-rule-5-protection.html

I think it was 2012, we protected Hassan and left Pressly and Fields unprotected. Both were selected and went on to do good things. I would have protected Ward and DFA's someone on my 5 man list.

I just don't see much difference between Beni, Gallo and Bellinger. Beni has a better OBP, but moving Dugo to RF hurts the D more than by adding Gallo. I'm assuming we go with Bogey or Correa. I like Correa's D, but his up and down offense and injury history makes that a tough call. Pitching, pitching, pitching, to me.

So, maybe something like Beni in LF and Dugo in RF, and we sign a SS and extend Devers while packing the staff, too.

I'm not thrilled with the idea, but I'm pretty sure we'll have to skimp at some position. If it's RF, it may have to be Gallo or Bellinger or some LF'er like Beni with Dugo moving to RF. I am in no way saying I like Gallo as our RF'er.

Shows how much the OF market sucks, this year.

Both TCU and Michigan pulled out wins and will likely remain in the top 4.

TCU and Michigan are losing in the 4th quarter.

MLBTR says the Sox are "showing interest" in ... Kodai Senga Andrew Heany Seth Lugo Corey Kluber Nathan Eovaldi Rich Hill (No mention of Wacha.)

I have thought so, too, since the minute we signed Story, but Story's profile is no longer as a solid SS, so that aspect changed, but it does seem like the two are too far apart to expect a return.

I think one of these two could very likely end up in a Sox uniform. One major reason is that both will likely sign for a shorter term deal and not at big money. This will allow for at least 2 things: 1. Buy time to allow us to see what Rafaela and Abreu can do for us, in terms of stepping into the gap that will be left when Kike's contract ends. 2. The low cost will allow us to spend at SS, pitching and maybe for extending Devers, too.