moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I always thought they viewed 2024 and beyond as the better chance at a ring. It looked that way all winter long, until the March Story signing.
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Certainly, Story might have always been on the burner, or even a sure bet signing once other signings did not materialize. At the time, before I knew about the arm issues, I thought he was a lock to play SS, at least starting in 2023, but we also needed a 2Bman. It appeared to me, the plan was to not go over the tax line in 2022. That is one reason I think the late Story signing was kind of a knee jerk decision. The puzzling part to me, was that we still could have gotten under the tax line with a little more creativeness by Bloom after the Story signing.
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If my theory is correct about the Story signing being a somewhat "unplanned" signing, that might explain why some earlier moves were not made, but before the Story signing we still had room for several "near miss" signings.
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He's also been a much better defender, and at key positions. I would not be shocked to find out Sox management thinks Story is worth more than Bogey. I think it's pretty close. Bogey is a better hitter- Story is a better defender and runner. I thought a $150-160/6 year deal would be fair. I'm not sure I'd go above $162M/6 ($27M x 6), but I wouldn't be upset, if we go a little higher.
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I get the frustration, too. I've felt it. On some of the "interested in" players, I'm glad we came up short, such as Matz, Baez and Suzuki. Certainly, Wacha, Story and Refsnyder worked out better and at less cost, yet we are left with a bad taste in our mouth. Maybe that was the garlic toast.
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I think that's what happened. I won't argue semantics, but a "guess" fits, too. In that light, the "lowball" offer was made before knowing what the Story offer would be. It's one possible reason for the apparent disconnect. It could also be true, they think Story was worth more than Bogey. It's all a guess. (or opinion)
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I'm not defending the low-ball offer, but one explanation is that maybe they felt Bogey signed the contract for $20M x3 after the opt out, and they viewed adding a $30M fourth year was not a low-ball. Story was a FA: Bogey was not, and that matters on contract offers. I disagree, but to me, it was not an extremely absurd first offer, if they had followed up quickly with something slightly bigger than Story's contract. In my own opinion, I don't even think they planned on signing Story when they made that Bogey offer. I think Henry heard the rumblings of anxious fans (I called them "crybaby fans" earlier and that pissed off our resident crybaby fan) and saw the drop in season ticket applications and NESN subscriptions and told Bloom to sign Story. Just my opinion.
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Wow, the Jays just traded Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners for Erik Swanson & Adam Macko (a prospect!) TH has a 132 OPS+ since 2020 and 121 since 2018. He's not a plus defender, but GEEESH! Maybe Winker is a sure bet to be traded, now.
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Agreed, but I do think, probably next winter, he trades a top 5-7 prospect or two top 10-12's. It makes sense to keep Bello, Casas, mayer and Rafaela, since we have immediate needs at SS, CF, 1B and SP, but we do have some duplicate positional values and we can choose a position or two to fill via free agency or trade and then trade a prospect(s) fro that position. I'm sure he has a rank of the prospects he wants to keep the most, and he probably will need to be dragged into trading one he really likes, but I think there will come a time, where he may need to part with someone he really likes.
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I do think there will come a time Bloom pulls the trigger on a big prospect trade. I felt the same about Ben, but he was gone before he had a chance.
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I'd love to have him but not at the cost BTV gives him: 140 Alcantara 39 Lopez 37 Rogers 27 Luzardo 22 Garrett 10 Cabrera (7.5 Berti) Salary dump add-ons? -33 A Garcia -21 Soler -1 Bleier
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He's asking for 3 but will probably get 2. It could be a ploy to up the pay for 2, of get an option for the 3rd year with a significant buyout.
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Or, he'll say for the umpteenth time, he said we "should sign Jansen," last winter. The fact is there is no clear comp for Kike at $10M on the FA market or on last year's FA market. Look what the Brewers paid JBJ a couple years back. LOL! Is it a fantastic deal? Maybe. He may suck, this year, and we'll never hear the end of it, but until he names a name, he can gloat all he wants about "being right," but if you never give a specific opinion, you cannot claim to be right or wrong. It's easy to sit back and pick apart the mistakes a GM makes or the wrong suggestions by fans. Think about how many times we heard the name JBJ & Renfroe or even Paxton & Diekman compared to the how many times we heard mention of Wacha, Schreiber, Refsnyder, Strahm and even Hill & McGuire. To me, it seemed pretty clear the balance of winter moves by Bloom worked out to the plus. It was the carry-over players, injuries and maybe some non-moves that hurt the most. You'd never know that by the tone and volume of anti Bloom winter moves posts.
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I'd do that trade, but we'd have to give more than Mayer. BTV has Alcantara at 140 and Mayer at 55, Casas 39 and Bello 33. It might take all 3 to get him. BTV accepts this deal: Rafaela, Verdugo, Wikelman and Murphy for Lopez, Berti, A Garcia (salary dump) and Cabrera We then trade Houck for JP Crawford, Flexen and Winker. We sign RP'ers Fulmer and Rogers giving us this 2023 roster: SP Lopez Sale Whitlock Bello Pivetta SP/RP Cabrera, Flexen, Crawford RP Rogers Fulmer Schreiber Barnes Taylor Winckowski Kelly/German C McGuire, Wong 1B Casas, Dalbec/Hosmer 2B Story, Arroyo SS Crawford 3B Devers LF AGarcia CF Kike RF Berti, Refsnyder DH Winker (LF) We still have Mayer, Yorke, Bleis, Romero and others on the farm.
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At some point, DFA Chang, DHern, Ort and Cordero and add 4 solid free agents or trade additions. SS _______ (CF with Kike moving to SS or 2B with Story moving to SS) RF _______ SP/RP _______ RP _______ That's bare minimum additions. I might trade Brasier, RHern, Downs and or Duran (Taylor if his prognosis is dim) for non-40 man roster prospects to open up room for 2-3 more additions: RP ______ RP ______ DH (1B/OF?) _______ C ______
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I'd hesitate to give Nate 3 years. I think trading for a solid starter is our best chance at making the budget work. To do that, we need to change the philosophy as a one time thing. I'm not sure management is ready to do that, right now. Maybe next winter is possible. If we don't get a long time SS, it would mean mayer will not be part of any such trade. Maybe Romero makes big strides, next season, and he could be the centerpiece of such a deal. It looks like we will need Rafaela in the OF and Bello, Mata and others, too. I'm not sure we have a farm deep enough and good enough to pull off a big trade like I imagine is needed.
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The price of kicking tires has soared with inflation.
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When you ask him to defend his position with evidence or specifics, he accuses you of overanalyzing. If you provide evidence and specifics to support your own position, he says you are overanalyzing things, and "everyone has a right to their own opinion." (Nobody doubts that, but part of a forum is to have back and forth on the reasonings behind differing opinions.). He assumes he can just make a blanket statement about there being better choices than Kike at $10M/1 and not have to give specific reasons why he thinks that is true. It's like "It's true because I believe it is."
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Okay, some decisions have already been made. The Rule 5 players were chosen, and we DFA'd a couple of players we all knew would not be on the roster on opening day. Next up: Signing FAs and DFA'ing or trading someone to make room for each addition. Dec 7 is the Rule 5 draft. Will we add a player or two, or will we lose a player or two (Wikelman, Ward or maybe Wallace or Scott?) How close were/are we to bringing back big Nate? Do we non-tender Cordero, Brasier or even Taylor if his health is still not looking good? Word, here in Houston, is Verlander wants 3 years. The team will likely say no to 3 but yes to 2. Could he be a "bridge" signing? He'd take a big chunk out of a re-set budget, whether in 2023 or 2024. I'd say we don't even contact his agent.
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It's essentially $20M x 2 or $17M x 3.
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He made a brief appearance. Word is, he's locked in his mom's basement listening to sports talk radio 24/7, so he can come back to this forum as the most knowledgeable poster, here.
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I can see why opportunities to make the big club works in a prospects favor, but yes, if the kid is never going to play, it's a messed up situation for a player's development. That being said, I'm thinking we will see more "farther away" prospects taken, this draft than ever before. Here's why: 1. More teams seem to see the value in really sucking vs just plain sucking. (the tankers) They don't care about winning in 2022, and they may actually prefer to be near a top drafting team. 2. More "draftable" players should be available due to no Rule 5, last year, and the missed year of player development in 2020. 3. Rosters have never been at 26 after a Rule 5 draft. The "extra" slot makes it easier for some teams to designate a slot for a raw but high upside prospect. The Sox do not have the best farm in MLB, but I'm thinking guys like Paulino (ranked 9th), Wikelman (ranked 13th) and T Ward (18th)- maybe Wallace- would have significant value to teams with no chance at winning in 2023. Players from other teams, likely more so.
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With no Rule 5, last winter, some think this draft will be more meaningful. Also, the ML rosters are now 26 players not 25. That may make it easier for some team that is tanking to make room for a promising but not ML ready prospect to sit on their 26, all year long.
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Ward is not a SP'er anymore? I'd prefer him over Ort or DHern, despite both having some nasty stuff. I like Wallace, but I think the odds are 50:1 he gets selected. I'm most worried about losing Wikelman. Not that he is the most likely to be taken, but he may be close enough to be selected, and has some good upside.
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I see 4-5 guys we could DFA is a second to make room: 1. Chang 2. DHern 3. Ort 4. Cordero 5. R Hern Downs or Duran won't get DFA'd but I could care less if either were traded for next to nothing or cut loose.
