moonslav59

I don't think the shift on RH'd batters will be any or much different, at all. The 2Bman can still shade far towards 2B under the new rule.

The usual winning formula was based on 2 aces and not much missed time by the top 4-5 starters. 2004: Pedro & Schill (top 5 starters had 29+ GS'd) 2007: Beckett & Schill (top 5 starters had 23+ GS'd and Lester had 11) 2013: Lester & Lackey (top 4 starters had 29+ GS'd and Buch 16/Peavy 10) 2018: Sale & Price -plus Porcello 103 ERA+), ERod (116) and Nate (133) (top 4 starters with 27 GS'd and Nate 11, Pom 11, BJohnson 13, Velazquez 8)

True. That's the beauty in advanced stats like WAR. Bogey's D and OBP have made up for the declining power.

I'd have b een happy to DFA Diekman and pay the team adding him all but min salary for the rest of '23 and all of '24. Getting McGuire for Diekman looks like a very nice trade. He's even done better than Vaz- post deadline.

He compares very favorably against most team's number 3s and even some #2s. He's one of the best #4s in MLB over the past 2 years. There may be 3 or 4 teams with an equal or better 5 starter. This might be a crude and flawed way of ranking SP'ers, but I think it is helpful when giving comparative value to SP'er. From 2021-2022, there have been 146 SP'er with 120+ IP. That's about 5 per team (30 teams x 5= 150.) One could argue 1-30 ate #1s, 31-60 are #2s and so on. Here is where Pivetta ranks in some key categories: 31. IP at 315 62. fWAR at 3.9 74. K-BB% at 15% 81. SIERA at 4.17 95. xFIP at 4.26 96. ERA- at 106 100. WHIP at 1.32 Ranked categories 1 in high #2 (IP) 3 in #3 (fWAR, K-BB% and SIERA) 3 in upper #4 (ERA-, WHIP and xFIP) In terms of comparative analysis, he looks like a solid #3. If he ends up our #4, I'd be fine with him there and maybe Bello, Paxton, Houck or Whitlock (Mata?) as the #5. If he ends up our #5, he should b e one of the best #5s in MLB.

If we bring Wacha back, we might be lucky to add one ace. 1. Ace 2. Wacha 3. Sale/Paxton 4. Pivetta 5. Bello (Whitlock or Houck)

Dalbec has homered twice, again, today. (Heating up, too late, this year.) Mata has allowed 9 hits and 0 BBs in 5 IP (1 ER & 7Ks).

I seriously doubt we fill every slot that looks like improvement is needed. Those positions might include: SP SP SP Closer RP 2B/SS RF 1B/DH C I think the plan will be to choose the positions we have the most faith in the existing players and then fill the others through free agency or trade. Those might include: RF, 2B/SS, SP, RP RP, at minimum, IMO.

I seriously doubt we bring Vaz back. I do not want JD back either. No disrespect. The guy was key to our 2018 ring. Best wishes, elsewhere.

I've been one of the main voices that stated Bogey's decline in power, but I and as far as I know anyone else have ever said the word "demise." His power and RBI numbers dipped, significantly. His SLG has declined steadily since 2019. The RBI dip was sudden, and it appears to not be related to less men on base or in scoring position. PAs and RBI 2022 293 PAs w Men on Base/ 61 RBI (25 BB) 166 PAs w RISP/ 59 RBI (13 BB) 2021 288 PAS Men on/ 66 RBI (34 RBI) 161 PAs w RISP/ 55 RBI (16 BB) 2019 327 PAs Men on/ 98 RBI (38 BB) 191 PAs RISP/ 80 RBI (29 BB(

How about SLG%? .555 in 2019 .502 in 2020 .493 in 2021 .470 in 2022, which has been rising since many of the statements were made about his declining power. It was at .454 on August 1st and dipped to .436 on AUG 20th. The statements made back in August were backed by more evidence than just lower HR totals. The rise in singles and BA raises the SLG%, too without showing "power."

No, I have switched to saying Bogey's power and RBIs declined. I should not leave out Devers as an exception for declining returning vets. Vaz and Devers did not decline. Bogey's OPS+ has not declined, and he has brought it up since mid August, too. His defense improved, so overall, he did not technically decline, but the lack of RBIs was significant. So, Vaz, Devers and Bogey did not decline. Houck and Whitlock did about the same. Every other returning player declined, and many were not aging vets. Many got hurt and were returning from injuries for much of the season.

When you look at who has come up from the farm over the last decade or more, and how well they did, it's pretty shocking to see the drop off in quantity and quality. To not link this to our drop off in ML performance is missing something vital. Some carry- over homegrown players before 2004: Nomar, Nixon, B Arroyo, Daubach. Note: prospects traded before reaching MLB are not listed. (This is not a complete list.) 2004: Youkilis 2005: Papelbon, Delcarmen, Shoppach, Cla Meredith 2006: Lester, Pedroia, David Murphy, K Gabbard 2007: Ellsbury, Buchholz, Brandon Moss 2008: Lowrie, Masterson 2009: Josh Reddick, D Bard 2010: Doubront, D Nava, R Kalish 2011: Iggy, K Weiland, Lavarnway 2012: 2013: Bogaerts, JBJ, Alex Wilson, Workman 2014: Betts, Vazquez, Barnes, Rusney Castillo, A Ranaudo 2015: ERod (traded for as a prospect), T Shaw, Swihart, N Ramirez 2016: Benintendi, Moncada, B Johnson, H Velazquez 2017: Devers, T-W Lin 2018: Walden, Poyner, Beeks 2019: Josh Taylor, Chavis, DHern 2020: Houck, Dalbec, Arauz 2021: Whitlock (from NYY farm via Rule 5), Duran, Crawford, Wong (traded for as a prospect) 2022: Casas, Downs, Winckowski (acquired as prospect via trade), Bello, Seabold, Ort Remember, when a prospect is called ujp, there is usually a lag between their call-up date and when they contribute in a positive way. Look 2-4+ years past when the best players started and notice our ring years fall in this range.

My sleeper pick, this year is Kentucky.

Lugo was promoted to AA in time for the playoffs. Minor League OPS Leaders. 500+ PAs 1. Kavadas 1.006 11. E Valdez .942 22. Rafaela .892 49. Abreu .841 50. Lugo .837 60. Paulino .827 76. Jordan .808 (Mayer places 55th on the list of leaders with 400+ PAs at .887 Minor League SB Leader Board 5. Hamilton 69 (8 CS) 9. Ferguson 61 (5) 42. Rosier 40 (5) 99. Abreu 31 (3) 120. Rafaela 28 (7) 132. Paulino 27 (5) 153. Meredith 25 (0) in just 65 games (The top 4 were not in the Sox system in 2021.) OBP Leaders (400+ PAs) 2. Kavadas .449 35. Abreu .402 40. Mayer .399 43. Bonaci .397 (The top 3 were not in the Sox system in 2021.) BB Leaders 1. Abreu 114 5. Kavadas 102 9. Ferguson 96 16. Bonaci 89 85. Mayer 68 (91 gms) 102. Scott 65 (95 gms) 102. Rosier 65 116. Paulino 64 126. Binelas 63 126. Hickey 63 155. Stewart 61 155. EValdez 61 OBP & SB .415 & 25 Meredith (65 games) .403 & 31 Abreu .399 & 17 Mayer (91 games) .397 & 28 Bonaci .366 & 61 Ferguson .359 & 40 Rosier .359 & 27 Paulino .344 & 28 Rafaela .337 & 69 Hamilton

500+ PAs 1. Kavadas 1.006 11. E Valdez .942 22. Rafaela .892 49. Abreu .841 50. Lugo .837 60. Paulino .827 76. Jordan .808 (Mayer places 55th on the list of leaders with 400+ PAs at .887

Minor League SB Leader Board 5. Hamilton 69 (8 CS) 9. Ferguson 61 (5) 42. Rosier 40 (5) 99. Abreu 31 (3) 120. Rafaela 28 (7) 132. Paulino 27 (5) 153. Meredith 25 (0) in just 65 games (The top 4 were not in the Sox system in 2021.) OBP Leaders (400+ PAs) 2. Kavadas .449 35. Abreu .402 40. Mayer .399 43. Bonaci .397 (The top 3 were not in the Sox system in 2021.)

It's interesting that we traded for several players with high OBP and SB totals (Hamilton, Abreu, Rosier & Ferguson.) Also, McGuire leads the league in CS% at 36%. It was 35% in 2021 and 50% in 2020. That's 37% since 2020. Wong's is 25% in just 14 SB attempts in his ML career. In the minors: 212 SB and 90 CS (30% CS%)

Yes, it was the same winter. DEC 2020 to Jan 2021 Ottavino & German (Trade) Whitlock (Rule 5) Ort & T Reed (Minor League Rule 5)

I like how you waited to answer. The Whitlock case shows the Yanks can misjudge young talented pitchers. Plus, as jacko will tell you, they have som many great young arms, they can't protect them all.

We all know he's streaky, but he never had a hot streak. There were so many disappointments: JD Bogey's power & RBIs Story, even when not injured Dugo Kike, even when not injured JBJ, despite low expectations Devers, after August Duran Nate Sale Injuries forced others

Everybody Wong Chang, tonight!

I did, too, but was Bloom supposed to know he'd do worse? It seems like many felt he should have known the younger Dalbec was going to fail. Should he have expected Bogey & Devers to decline some? Only Vaz improved significantly. To me, it just looks like a snake bite year- all around.

I'm not sure the non Vaxxed will be banned, next year, but maybe they view that choice of his as being, in some sense, "anti-team player." With the back surgery, I'm not sure about Houck's stock value, right now.