moonslav59

Would anyone make this BTV approved deal with the Pirates? Houck, Schreiber, Rafaela, Yorke and Wikelman for David Bednar (closer) 27 years old & 4 years of team control 141 ERA+ (3.03 ERA)/ 1.11 WHIP career (11.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9) Last 2 years: 2.45 ERA (a74 ERA+) and 1.03 WHIP w 11.8K/9 to 2.8 BB/9 Bryan Reynolds (OF) 27 years old & 3 years of team control .282/.346/.482/.844 career per 650 PAs: .282 24 79 (62 XBHs) Last 2 years: .284 27 75 (57 XBH) .863 OPS

I think they may offer Bogey slightly more than what they gave Story- maybe $150M/6. If he says no, I think they offer Swanson $20M/yr and us that other $5M to add to what they were planning on spending at RF, SP and the pen. That's how I think they plan. They have plan Bs, Cs, ds and maybe even run past the alphabet. I might rather have Sawnson and Nimmo than Bogey and Mancini.

We will also see a hefty arb raise for Devers (3rd Arbs out of 3, tend to be the largest increase.) We also have these arbs: Pivetta, Arroyo, Refsnyder & Dugo 2 of 3 McGuire arb 1 of 3

Our owner also has a history of tolerating a few last place finishes and sub tax line seasons in a row between ring years, so let's hope that aspect is on the way out going forward.

They got McGuire for his D, IMO. Any O is a plus. I expect .650 to.700 from him going forward. Wong can PH for him, late in games. Career OPS .685 McGuire .695 Vaz .703 Wong .655 Plawecki I'm not expecting improved catcher O, but it would not surprise me. Vaz had a nice year on O, the first 4 months of 2022, so I'm not expecting above .740, but I do expect improved D and work with the staff.

I seriously doubt we move Story to SS. Even more for Kike to 2B. If we did move Story to SS, we might sign KWong or hope EValdez can shine with Arroyo as an option, if he can stay on the field.

Love the power, but his patience and eye impress me more, especially when you figure rookies rarely get ump calls in their favor.

If we sign a guy like Nimmo, I think we turn down Pham's $6M option and pay him $1.5M, assumi ng he turns down the mutual option, too. The difference is $4.5M, and he would not be a bad 5th OF'er as I figure ref might be the #4. One other option is to use Pham or Ref as a DH or platoon DH, but I agree, we don't need ref and Pham. If we don't add an OF'er, I'd keep Pham: LF: Dugo & Pham CF: Kike RF: Dugo & Ref

I don't think we move Story to SS, where is arm may be tested or strained. I think they realize Kike is very good on D at 2B, but he is excellent in CF. For those reasons, I think we add a SS, if Bogey walks. We may look to a shorter term solution in hopes of Mayer and or Rafaela rising up quickly, but I don't think management thinks like that. They can deal with logjams when and if they occur much more easily than trying to fill gaps.

No doubt. Our future is not tied to the past, except we have the same owner who has certain tendencies that may continue to lead to success.

I'm less optimistic about 2023 as I was before this season began, but I do see some hope. If we can slightly improve at most positions and make significant upgrades at 3-5 others, I think we can compete for a playoff slot in 2023. I doubt we can compete for a ring in '23 without going way over the tax line (not likely.) I know many might disagree with these assessments, especially at C and DH, but here is my pink sunglasses view: Catcher: I honestly like McGuire & Wong more than Vaz & Plawecki. Remember, Vaz has not always been over .700. He is a career .695 hitter, which is not bad for a catcher and .683 from 2021-2022. It's no secret my views on how he handles the staff. 1B: Casas-Hosmer-Dalbec should be a major improvement over Dalbec-Cordero both on O and D. DH: I truly believe we can match our .750 DH OPS, in 2023 without adding anyone. A platoon or rotation from a few of these guys may get the job done: Hosmer/Dalbec/Arroyo/Refsnyder/Pham/ EValdez. (This is the one slot I have the least faith in.) 2B: A healthy Story & Arroyo could be a major plus-plus here. 3B: A healthy and motivated Devers could easily blow away his 2022 numbers. His D has greatly improved. LF: Dugo + Pham is better than Dugo+ Duran CF: A healthy Kike should blow away our mix & match 2022 CF'ers. RF: I think we need to add here, but Dugo+Refnsyder should be better than JBJ + mix'n'match of 2022. SS: The one area we may decline, unless we bring Bogey back. I would think Bogey could be better in 2023 than 2022. If we take a step back, here, the other plusses should outweigh this minus, especially if we upgrade at RF. (Ref could play 4th OF & DH more) The pitching is the big question mark, and it is so complicated by injuries and unknown roles that it's hard to do a 2022 to 2023 side-by-side comp. We will or may lose: Clear Pluses: Wacha Kinda plusses: Nate Strahm Hill Kinda minuses: Feliz less from Danish & PValdez Clear minuses: Diekman Sawamura Robles Davis Familia maybe of less IP from: Wink, Seabold, Brasier, Ort, Danish, DHern Maybe more IP from... Whitlock Houck Schreiber Crawford Bello Maybe something good from Mata, TWard, Walter, German, Kelly We need to add 3-5 solid pitchers to just improve on 2022. Bringing back Wacha (QO?) would likely not be an improvement over 2022, but would be a very nice start.

I totally agree, and it does look like Bloom is trying to build up farm depth and quality pitching, although his highest draft picks don't reflect that point. Many of our most promising young pitchers are from the DD and ben eras, but that is kind of expected, as it takes 3-6 years for a draftee to start producing. Bloom did acquire Whitlock, Winckowski, Seabold, German, Z Kelly, J Wallace and L de la Rosa via trades, Rule 5 and minor league free agency, but none have amounted to much, yet. The carry-overs look more promising: Bello Mata TWard Walter Wikelman Crawford (post prospect) Perales Drohan Murphy (falling off a cliff, of late)

I was just busting your balls. Remember, you gave me crap for saying "We..." and asking if I was part of the Sox management team or something?

I gave up on the Boston media long ago. I used to get the Globe delivery until the 90's.

If Cordero is out of options, I think we will try to get him to sign a minor league deal. If we don't add anyone to our OF, we may keep him on the 40 to start the year. The PHam option may affect his status as well. $6M mutual option w $1.5M buy out. OF'ers on the 40 man: Kike Dugo Refsnyder Pham (see option) Cordero (Arroyo)

Their pitching has been great (.615 OPS Against for the season,) but even greater vs NYY (.560) and TBR (.503)- two likely advancing AL playoff teams (.733 v TOR)

I would call McGuire more than a "fill-in." Like him or not, he will likely be our FT catcher in 2023 with Wong as the back-up. If we don't add an OF'er or DH, Pham may be the starting LF'er and Pham, Wong & Hosmer the DHs.

Pretty amazing Rings: (BOS, NYY, TOR, TBR, BAL) 4-1-0-0-0 Last Place: 5-0-1-1-4 Last 10 years, counting 2022: 1st Place 4 BOS 2 NYY 2 TBR 1 TOR 1 BAL Last 20 years 9 NYY 5 BOS 4 TBR 1 TOR 1 BAL Last Place: Last 10 years 0 NYY 1 TOR 1 TBR 4 BOS 4 BAL Last 20 years 0 NYY 2 TOR 5 BOS 5 TBR 8 BAL

They are so insightful!

Thanks. Didn't Cordero pass through waivers, once, this year?

The Stros are solid 1 to 26. What team can trade odorizzi and then demote javier to the pen? When Verlander went down, they had a 6 man rotation of all homegrown pitchers. McCullers only has 7 starts, and look where they are. GS ERA+ 29 Valdez 144 28 Urquidy 100 27 Garcia 102 26 Verlander 213 24 Javier 146 12 Odorizzi 104 7 McCullers 173 2 H Brown 68 Their pen 264 Maton 62 IP 256 Montero 65 256 Neris 64 240 Abreu 58 214 Stanek 52 170 Pressley 45 (He's the worst of their key 6 w 39+ IP, and he'd be best on the Sox.)

Being a fan and picking them as your sleeper pick are two different things. I'm not a Kentucky football fan, at all. I just think they have a good enough QB to make a splash, and the rest of their team is solid.

They may have already been decided. (Devers may be on hold for longer.) We, as in us fans, don't "need to know." We'll find out, eventually. More and more, I think we will re-set in 2023. If my calculations ar correct- concerning arbs and the Paxton/Pham options, we should have about $55-65M to spend in AAV. We can argue all day about what priority is #1, but I think we all agree we need, at bare minimum... 2 solid pitchers (RP or SP depends on where Houck and Whitlock are slotted and their health) SS RF/DH IMO, we need 3-4 pitchers, a SS and a FT RF'er (5-6 key additions) If we settle on 5 players and $60M, that's $12M per player. For every guy we sign for more, another guy or two gets less. I do hope we make a trade for one key slot, so we'll have $60M to spend on 4 slots- not 5, but if the longer term plan is still the number one priority, I doubt it happens, unless the guy we trade for has 4+ years of team control (maybe 3, if a great one.) I'd love to have a lock-down closer as much as anyone, but I'd also love to have a great SS, and cae and a decent RF'er to go with the pen upgrade.

Our pen was actually pretty good for the brief time Houck and Whitlock were in the pen, without one being a piggybacker. The sample size is too small to know anything, for sure, and I certainly share your concerns about naming one the closer for 2023. I do think their career sample sizes are big enough to have a lot of hope that one can be a big plus in the closer or relief ace role. (Most great closers were once not closers.) Career OPS Against .591 in 595 PAs Against Houck (.570 as RP'er) .635 in 609 PAs Against Whitlock (.603 as RPer) _____________________ .529 Kimbrel .544 Jansen .588 Uehara .592 Papelbon .598 Diaz .653 Foulke We will have to skimp somewhere, if we go heavy on a closer. IMO, getting 2-3 solid set-up men for the price of one great closer is a better route to take. It does not mean I de-value the pen more than others. I also see a high need at SS and maybe RF. Those guys play everyday, and their defense, alone may matter as much as one RP'er who pitches 55-65 innings.

I'm not aware of any top closer on the trade market, so for argument's sake, let's say we sign Diaz for maybe $20M per year. If our budget is $60M, how do we sign Bogey, a RF'er and 2 SP'ers? Plus, we need more than a closer in the pen. Let's go with Houck and Whitlock as SP'ers with Bello taking the 5 slot, then we'd need a SS, RF'er and at least 2 more solid pen arms as set-ups for Diaz. How do we do that with $40M. $25-28M might go for Bogey, alone. (Maybe $20M for Swanson or TAnderson- both steps down.) That would leave $12-20M for RF, RP, RP and maybe some depth. We'd be looking at 2 Diekmans and an OF'er like Pham. I'm not against building the pen up, but great closers cost a lot. I'd rather add 2-3 solid pen arms, and I don't mean spending $3-4M like Strahm and Diekman or Andriese, last year. Maybe we get lucky and find the next Uehara- who was not a "closer" when we got him.