moonslav59

I would think we still pay the $8M buyout.

I'm talking about the apparent $5.8M x 3 someone said we will be paying. If we trade him, no team would want that. It has nothing to do with the lux tax for most teams.

I'm not sure cots can be trusted, anymore. Too bad. They has a good rep for a long time, I was under the impression Hosmer will cost the league min for the remainder of his contract, which I believe is 3 more years. If not, then we'd be on the hook for the difference, if we DFA him. I'm not sure anyone would take him at $5.8M x 3. I think many sites missed the Pham option fiasco, so cots may not be alone on that one. On your $118M number. I'm not sure where you got that amount. I have us near $60M to spend, after the Kike $10M signing, assuming we spend to just under the tax line.

Certainly the drop in SLG is troublesome, but the whole league has declined- though not as much as he has. .418 in 2020 .411 in 2021 .395 in 2022 I wish they has a SLG+ stat, but here are Bogey's OPS+ numbers: 135 in '18 139 in '19 128 in '20 129 in '21 131 in '22 Remarkably consistent and very good.

Agreed. Maybe one GM might go $160/6 or $175/7, but I think $150M/6 is about right.

Most of us thought the opening day roster was competitive enough to make the playoffs, "while we were rebuilding." I agree, once it became clear that were were not going to win a ring, this year, and to me, it was a long shot to even make the playoffs before the deadline, we should have done, at minimum, just enough to reset the tax. Keeping the fans from becoming irate was the tightrope walk, but I think it was worth the try, and for me, this is NOT hindsight talk. Probably, trading everyone not nailed down was the best move. Bite the bullet on fan disgust, but then produce a winning team in 2023 and a system set up to keep winning, and the fans would shut up real quickly- like they did in 2013.

I'm not looking to trade Bello, either.

Sounds about right. We'd probably have to have given Mayer and Rafaela plus more. I'd have probably said no, despite the friendly extension.

Hard to know what we'd have had to give him, but I like the extension numbers. 3 of Seattle's top 5 might not mean 3 of our top 5, but if it was Rafaela, Yorke & Mata, I might say yes.

If they can extend Castillo, it will be even better. I always hoped we'd get him.

Being that he is free and gives a veteran presence to a young, "rebuilding team," I think many of the cheap teams might take a freebie like Hosmer. Maybe, not.

I don't think Vaz and Plawecki were ever part of our longer term plans, and maybe for good reason. Word is, they are looking to add a catcher to the mix.

It seems like the Marlins are the best fit for us to make a trade- perhaps to fill 2-3 slots, but it all comes down to how they value our prospects. They have a young SS that is highly rated, so Mayer may not be who they want. They may want Bleis over Rafaela. They may insist on Bello. They may prefer Mata or Walter over Wikelman. They may laugh at a Duran offer or want him, assuming we take Soler or Garcia as a salary dump. They may want Hosmer or someone else we value lowly- like Wink, Seabold or Dalbec.

I meant more birthdays, this month.

Maybe they just don't value Bogey like we do. They have a long history of letting some of our stars and semi-stars go when their control years end. They've been right more than wrong in this area, but this does reek of the Lester fiasco. They could have at least saved face by offering about what they gave Story, but maybe they don't even feel he's worth that.

BTV accepted: Rafaela, Wikelman, Wink & Hosmer for Lopez, Cabrera, Cooper & Soler

That's what I thought you felt, but then I question why you seem to think I'm wrong when I say I think (not know) they will reset in '23 or '24.

So, no opinion.

So, again, you don't think they will spend big and sign one or both of these guys? If they sign both, do you think they will spend big to fill out the rest of the holes?

So, you are saying they will not spend big?

We have never gone 3 years straight over the tax line. Yes, I'm making an assumption we won't, this time, either. BTW, there have been statements made about being fiscally responsible. We can both read into that what we want. If we go over the tax line for 3 straight years or more, it will not only cost Henry money, but there are draft and bonus pool penalties involved- making it harder to maintain a longer term success strategy. I do not think resetting means more last place finishes. It doesn't have to be all in or all out, and I don't think top Sox management has ever felt like we'd finish in last place, except for maybe 2020. They don't plan for last place, but they don't plan for a ring every year, either. Unless you have a Dodger payroll or a Braves farm system, you screw yourself by trying to go all in, every year. IMO, we are trying to build up a farm system that can maintain a consistent winning tradition with no cliffs, no rebuilds and no more last places, but certainly with some restes scattered every 2-3 years along the way. It is possible to win it all in reset years, if the plan is sound and in place. We have done it before. Keep wishing JH changes his ways, if you want. It is a plan that should work. I'm just saying I won't believe it, until it happens. There is too much to lose by going over for that third year. Had we reset, this year, our next 2 years would be more encouraging, IMO. I'm fine knowing you and others see it differently.

That's your opinion, and if the Sox feel they can sign both, then yes. Bogey comes first. if a reset is in the plans for 2023 or 2024, it still makes signing both possible, but the rest of the team n eeds will suffer greatly. This is where an either or situation mat arise, and a higher priority may be given to Devers, if they value him more.

Yes, but that does not change what your top priority might be, until one says no to your top offer.

Too bad you can't have several more birthdays. Congrats on your team's advancement.

But, if they know, now, they will not sign both, Devers becomes the top priority. We don't know the thinking on this.