moonslav59

I like Houck, a lot, despite the whole no vax fiasco. If he comes back healthy, and we stop jerking him around, I think he has a good chance to be a solid closer, but nothing is certain. That being said, I think his BTV value of 18.5 is pretty accurate. Of all our top BTV numbers, I do think trading Houck and Schreiber might make the most sense, despite our pen being a weak area. If we sign a few more pen arms, it would make up for their loss, but cost more. Since we have budget space, that is doable, as long as we can get a better SP'er for them. Maybe we add a prospect and can get Lopez, Rogers or Luzardo & Berti. Our top BTV numbers: 55 Mayer 41 Casas 35 Devers 34 Whitlock 33 Bello 19 Schreiber 19 Houck 15 Rafaela 14 Bleis 8.7 Romero 8.0 Yorke 6.5 Anthony 6.5 Coffey 6.5 McGuire (BTV loving the Sox deadline deals) 5.9 Duran 5.7 Verdugo 5.6 Walter 5.6 Lugo 5.0 Jordan 5.0 Paulino 4.2 Paxton (Hmmmm....) 3.8 Mata 3.6 Murphy 3.1 Hosmer (Another deadline plus) 2.9 Seabols 1.9-2.6: Bonaci, Wink, Hamilton, Taylor, Jimenez, Abreu & Wong Of our top prospects, it seems like Rafaela is the best one with higher value, Yorke might be a sell low option and Lugo due to a bottle neck at SS on the farm. Duran is the obvious over valued one, and if any GM thought he was worth close to his BTV value, he'd be included in my suggested trade. So, what can we get with a combination of this.... 19.0 Schreiber 18.5 Houck 8.0 Yorke 5.9 Duran 5.6 Lugo Other possibles: 5.6 Walter 5.0 Jordan 4.2 Paxton 3.6 Murphy 3.2 Hosmer 2.9 Seabold 2.6 Bonaci or Wink 1.1 Downs

One trade candidate hardly anyone is mentioning is Houck. Maybe his injury makes him an unlikely target, but including him in a trade would help us avoid giving a top 3 prospect. BTV accepted this (I would not do it): Rafaela, Houck, Romero, Yorke and Walter for Reynolds BTV accepted this one: Rafaela & Walter for Keller (I threw in Duran to sweeten the pot)

Sadly, I agree. The close way TCU lost might help them, but 'Bama is a bigger draw and a money-maker.

Maybe the team offering him 4 had a hard time going from 3 to 4, and 5 was just too much.

I think a lot would get real excited to read we traded for Reynolds, and they don't really keep track or care much about unproven prospects or young players. I would not trade Mayer, Casas, Bello or Bleis for Reynolds. Rafaela, Downs, Duran and Wikelman, yes, but that won't get that deal done.

I wonder if they are bidding against themselves, recently. I doubt anyone else would come close to that, but who knows?

I think it would be the first time a 2 loss team makes the playoffs. 12-0 Georgia (winning as I type) 12-0 Michigan (plays Purdue, tonight) (Both of these teams are in, even if they lose, today) 12-1 TCU 11-1 OH St 11-2 USC 10-2 Alabama 10-2 Clemson (plays #23 UNC, tonight) 10-2 TN, Penn St & Clemson (Hard to justify jumping ahead of AL)

Yup. He's a good one, too!

Bogey (w opt out), Sale, Nate, Pearce, Perez, Kike Nobody real big since Bogey, Sale & Nate.

Assign the weight that is just enough to make SEA come out on top. BTW, 3 years is "distant," too. Almost as distant as 4 years!

Indeed. I'd add Bleis to the list of "only for a controllable ace" return.

Some GM may value Rafaela, Walter and Mata even more than I do. They may prefer Wikelman over Walter. One never knows.

BTV has accepted some very reasona ble trades with the Marlins. One type might be to take on Soler or Garcia's contracts to lessen the return package needed. Now, some here might not call Lopez or Rogers an "ace," but I think both rate to be top 30 SP'ers the next 3+ years- maybe even Luzardo could. We might even be able to get our RF'er and leadoff hitter as part of the deal. This was rated an overpay by the Sox on BTV: Mayer & Wikleman for Rogers, Cabrera & Berti (I might do it for Lopez and Berti alone, and BTV accepted it) I still like taking on Soler or Garcia as the best way to get an ace. It's like their contracts pay for an ace, and both are cheaper than an ace.

Okay, maybe not #13 Murphy or #14 Lugo, but something like Casas, Romero & Walter or Mata would still leave us Mayer & Rafaela and a couple decent pitching hopes on the farm. We could also look to do what the Mariners did by trading and extending Castillo. They did not give up 3 like Mayer, Casas, Bello or Bleis.

Maybe not a clean bill of health, but I think it is reasonable to count on better help. This winter's plans have to include improving depth, in case of injury, but to me, we only really need to fill or upgrade 5-7 more slots, and after subtracting Kike, Joely and Martin's contracts, we still have about $80M to spend: #1/2 SP SS RF #1/2 RP SP/RP That's the must 5. Catcher DH or another Pitcher Is the max 7 or 8. With $80M, we better get some real talent. I'd prefer dividing the $80M by 5 and not 7 or 8. I have faith some of our rising youth can fill in well enough to not need more. We should see time from Bello, Casas, Wong, EValdez, Kelly, German, Crawford, Winkowski, Seabol, Mata, Walter and maybe more (Murphy, Ort, Wallace, Politi, Ward, Hamilton, Rafaela, Downs, Duran RHern...)

Yes, and we can't replace Bogey's 6 with three 2 WAR players. I was hoping this would be Bloom's first year where quality could finally pass quantity due to the $100M budget (including the Kike extension) and only needing 6-8 slots filled vs way more in past winters. I like the Martin signing, but worry if we will be willing to overpay on some top quality or maybe even 2 guys at near what Story got.

Mayer plus some prospects not in the top 8 or 12. Mayer, Wikleman and Jordan for .... 3+ Years Casas or Mayer, Romero or Walter plus Lugo or Murphy for 4+ years

Indeed, and the better players always seem to get too big an AAV and or too many years. People complain when we don't overpay. People complain when we do overpay.

I'm okay with trading a top prospect if we get an ace with 3+ years of team control, maybe 2 prospects for 4+ years or team control.

So the Rays would not sign him for $10M/1.

...and as a bridge to Mayer. I'm beginning to see the hopes in Senga as being better than some of these names being mentioned- like Heaney & Eflin. I think I still prefer Taillon from the second tier SP'ers, but it still looks like a trade is the only way we'll get an ace, this winter.

But they are actually going to be a SS for more than 2-3 years. That might be the main reason we are not high on Bogey- not the money.

Good to see two names, this time. I totally disagree on trying to trade for Bard, but he could be a good closer next year. So could Houck or Barnes. So might Martin. 2021-2022 xFIP 9. Chris Martin 2.87 14. Whitlock 3.06 30. Houck 3.43 50. Jansen 3.76 51. Bard 3.77 60. Barnes 3.84

Because he drafted the best player in the draft, Mayer, and highly regarded Romero, that makes him incompetent?

This was about comparing BOS vs SEA. harmony chose the sample size that made SEA looks better (3 years.) Not every post is about Bloom.