moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I think that is fair, but all FA deals seem to be overpays, so $160M/6 seems okay, to me.
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Yes. I meant I said it earlier, today in a post, and said that is what the analytics say, which is what Kimmi relayed to us, long ago.
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He got his BB% from 8.5 to about 14%, this year. I remember he had one stretch where he had about 10 BB in 4 games.
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Interesting info in Bogey and the shift. The other thing about a long term deal is that Bogey will likely not be a SS for much longer. Getting top SS pay while playing 2B or 3B is not something many GM will sign up for.
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I don't think it matters at all what Bogey wants. The Sox will set a price and stick to it, like they always do. If another GM offers more, he'll be gone. I'm talking about what offer the Sox make that saves face (or half face, as I called it, since they already apparently low-balled him, already.) What do you think is a "fair offer." It should not have to do with what Correa is asking for or even gets.
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That's what I said: "2, 1, 5, 4, 3"
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Correa will likely get less than $35M a year, but it will be longer term. What's your fair offer TO Bogey?
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This is who and what we saw at our top 5 slots: PAs Batter OPS+ 1 204 Kike 79 (.275 OBP) 203 Pham 91 (.305) 165 Duran 89 (.285) 70 Refsnyder 120 (.357) 68 Story 56 (.279) 16 Arroyo 136 (.375) 2 455 Devers 112 141 Dugo 89 45 Vaz 78 24 Pham 79 17 Ref 143 13 Kike 113 12 Story 45 3 312 Bogey 123 290 JD 123 52 Devers 110 24 Dugo 113 4 301 Bogey 127 144 Dugo 121 122 JD 88 105 Devers 81 5 265 Dugo 110 165 JD 112 78 Story 94 39 Vaz 124 37 Arroyo 137 34 Kike 30 21 Dalbec 181
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With Bogey's loss of power, I think that line-up looks pretty close to the best, but it does not take into account trends and injuries. Just breaking down to first half vs second half... 1st 121 Devers 115 JD 105 Vaz 103 Bogey 94 Dalbec & Kike 93 Story & JBJ 85 Dugo 2nd 119 Dugo 119 Arroyo 96 Bogey 96 Pham 78 JD 65 Devers (158 McGuire but only 108 PAs w Sox)
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If you went by OPS+ in 2022, and only qualifying players, this might have been the "analytic" line up: 1. Bogey 131 2. Devers 141 3. Story 102 4. Dugo 102 5. JD 117
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Lux Tax inflation is not 10%, but it only affects 4-8 teams a year.
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Seems just about right. I doubt he takes it, unless he reaches free agency and no GM offers more. His home and away splits might scare away some GMs. .878 H .758 A His away splits have been better, recently: .796 in '21 .779 in '22
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Agreed. In theory, our line-up would start like this: 1. Bogey 2. Devers 3. 4. 5. JD
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SP's 2022 All Star Team (Pitchers tomorrow) C Hickey 1B Kavadas 2B Bonaci 3B Jordan SS Mayer OF Rafaela OF Bleis OF Sikes (only player not in top 25) Utility Paulino
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And, if the #3 hitter gets on with 2 outs, how often does he score? I think when the analytics clearly show a big difference, managers use the data. We see a lot of teams batting their best hitter second. That used to be used for a contact hitter to "move the runner over," and was often a somewhat weaker hitter. Managers are listening to a large degree.
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The bigger question is just what is fair offer for Bogey? $160M/6? (Story got $140M/6 and the US inflation rate is about 9%.) $168M/6? $185M/7? $140M/5?
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The "best hitter" need not be a power hitter, but I agree, I'd avoid power up first, even if I had a strong bottom of the order. I would put my very best overall hitter second. I agree with that idea. So, Devers bats second. Now, out of our next two best hitters, I'd put the better OBP up 1st and the other guy up 4th (not 5th as the analytics suggests.) Then does the 4th best hitter bat 3rd or 5th? I've always felt the 3 slot was important, but the analytics strong favors 5 over 3, so I'd go against my gut. My 5th best hitter bats 3rd.
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I think we will make a solid offer, and it will be made public. It may be an offer they know Bogey & BorA$$ will refuse, and they already know Plan B is actually PLan A. I think the final offer made to Lester was just a sham and public relations ploy to try to save half face. The Bogey offer may end up being a similar ploy. Who know? Maybe, we really do want him back.
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That's a solid list, except for the tippy top.
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The "analytics" says bat your best hitter second- not first. The 5 slot is more important than the 4, and the 3 slot should not be one of you top 3 hitters. I think the order goes: 2, 1, 5, 4, 3
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Hardly any big moves are made before the winter meetings, anymore. I agree on making him a solid and fair offer. Tell him it's on the table, even after Free Agency opens up, but that we may sign someone else at any moment, and the offer will vanish. Make it a fair offer and if he gets overpaid by some other GM, so be it. Just have a solid plan B and C.
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He did come close to .340 in 2021 (.337,) but Kike should not be our leadoff hitter. Expecting .333 is probably too much to hope for. If Story could show he can get back to .340, he might be a good leadoff hitter, but we need his power deeper in the line-up. When Bogey started showing signs of a decline in power, I wondered why we never led him off. He may not even be here, next year. We have to make some high OBP additions, this winter.
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If it comes down to paying for deGrom and Beni or Wacha and Nimmo, Lopez and Garcia would be way cheaper and shouldn't cost a major prospect to land. The money "saved" could be used to sign another pitcher or a catcher. Or, the saved money could be used towards signing Bogey not Swanson or adding to the offer for Devers. Again, it's not about any love for Garcia, but he would be an upgrade over JBJ/Duran and net us a cheap SP'er.
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1. It's not about Garcia and his contract. The money we pay him is really for the cheap pitcher we get in the deal, and the reduced return package you have to give up to get a solid SP'er, because we take on Garcia's contract. 2. Garcia would likely play LF in Fenway with Dugo in RF- not ideal, but with Ref as the 4th OF'er, maybe we'd be okay. 3. While not great, Garcia did have an OPS+ of 112 in 2019 and 119 in '21. There is some hope for a moderate bounce back to a near 115 OPS+ level, which would be a huge upgrade over our OF OPS+ in 2022.
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Looks like we have a pretty deep catcher situation on the farm from top to bottom, and 2-3 guys that have decent to fine ML back-up catcher profiles (McGuire, Wong, RHern,) but some serious doubts about having a solid #1 on the big club. Maybe a McGuire-Wong tandem will be enough, but the word was put out they are looking for an outside addition, and I don't think Caleb Hamilton was what they meant.
