moonslav59

The weathermen in TX have it easy. They are never wrong.

The only reason we should trade Bello is because we think we can do better with someone else. He is not overpaid, especially in light of today's market, He makes $6.2M in '26 and $8.7M in 2027. It jumps to $16.2 and $19.2M in '28 and .29, but even that might not be an overpay. $21M option for 20230 w just $1M buyout. Trading Bello opens another hole and knocks everyone on the rotation depth chart up a slot, when we should be knocking 'em down a slot.

I do think Gray rates to do better than Buehler (at the same point as last winter.) I'm not sure Gray will do better than Giolito, but recent fWAR says he will. Anyone (Oviedo/Crawford/Harrison/Sandoval) should do better than Beuhler/Houck/Fitts/Newcomb. Would signing Suarez and trading Duran or Rafaela for Lodolo be just enough?

The only way to get Crochet was "to overpay." Yes, I agree. Let's overpay. BTW, what about AZ "overpaying" for Duran or Rafaela and a pitcher. (Have you seen the overpays for pitchers, this winter?) I'd have been okay with Okamoto over KMarte, since he'd cost nothing in trade, and maybe we could still trade and OF'er + Crawford for a #2. Suarez on a 2 year deal might be doable.

Staining to be okay with it. Yes i think they will go cheap, too, but we can make one big trade and stay near the 25 budget but be better.

So the plan is hopes and prayers, and many here seem fine with that. No wonder JH has no sense of urgency to placate the fans. Most seem content with the status quo.

Top Sox Prospects by Level: MLB/AAA: 1 Tolle, 3 Early, 9 Sandlin, 14 Uberstine, 15 Drohan AAA/AA: 4 Witherspoon, 6 Bennett, 10 Phillips, 11 Eyanson, 13 Romero, 16 Holobetz, 17 Mullins, 18 Bleis AA/A+: 2 Arias, 12 Godbout, 22 Castro, 28 Monegro, 29 Samaniento A+/A-: 5 Valera, 7 Gonzales, 19 Cespedes, 27 Taylor, 31 Guzman, 32 Heyman A-/FCL/DSL: 20 Azocar, 23 Delzine, 24 Ramos, 25 Rivas, 30 Cason, 33 Pimera

There is a lot about Texas to dislike, but the state is growing in population, even beyond immigrants. I'm not sure how sustainable it will be, but we'll see. I doubt we retire here.

Over Red's dead body, we WILL!

I don't assume anyone is available. I assume everyone is. I assume any GM will listen, when more value is offered than what they give up. (This was not true on the offer here.)

Most of my trades offer more value to the other teams- this one did not. I just rejoined BTV's site, and my trades see more thumbs down on the Sox side than the other side. Nice try,

Why are you straining to try and find a way for us to go light this offseason? We need to improve to increase our chances at winning. Right now, we are not back to even with 2025 on offense or defense. Yes, we seemingly have 8 positions filled, but talk of Rafaela at 2B is not a good idea. To me, we need K Marte, with the next tier of Bregman, Bichette or maybe Paredes as acceptable. Anything less, and we go into 2026 looking worse or even on paper.

Old Fred & Red Lynn

Fred or Red?

LOL

Sign Okamoto. Trade Mayer, Rafaela & Holobetz for Greene Trade DHam, Valera and Cespedes for Donovan ____________________________ 1. L Anthony CF 2. R Okamoto 3B 3. L Duran LF 4. R Contreras 1B 5. L Abreu RF 6. R Story SS 7. L Donovan 2B 8. L Yoshida/L Casas/ R Romy DH 9. R Narvaez C SP: Crochet, Greene, Gray, Bello, Sandoval/Oviedo (Tolle/Early) RP: CHapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Crawford, Harrison, Weissert, Hicks, Watson

...and number 3, too, apparently.

I think Paredes will have a career year in 2026, and might have a better 2026 OPS than any current Sox player. (Anthony, Duran, Abreu and Contreras should be close.) Fangraphs projects: .802 Anthony (19 HRs in 630 PAs) .798 Paredes (20 Hrs in 455 PAs) .788 Abreu (22 Hrs in 525) .784 Contreras (25 in 609) .761 Duran (16 in 602)

Hopefully, we are not done adding to the offense, but here is a look at the 2025 numbers, by position, and what we might look like, as of now at each slot: C: .653 I think we can improve on this, maybe with a little regression from Narvaez, but .650+ from Wong. 1B: .691 This might be our best chance at improvement with the addition of Contreras. If Contreras can bring the 1B OPS up to .791, we could add 100 points here. 2B: .670 This might be the toughest position to project. I'm assuming Mayer is at 3B and we go with romy, DHam & Sogard at 2B. .670 might be too lofty a goal, but maybe call it even. SS: .736. I'm expecting some Story regression, but maybe no by too much. Maybe his sub (Mayer) can help keep the overall OPS near .740. 3B: .777 With Mayer at 3B, we could easily lose 50 to .75 points, here. LF: .781 Call it the same. CF: .774 Maybe about the same. RF: .882 Should be about the same. DH: .823 If we go with LHBs Masa & Casas and RHB Romy & Campbell we might be lucky to keep the drop off to .25 to .50 points. If we get lucky, maybe the add at 1B cancels out the losses at 3B and DH, but we'll need almost perfect health and no serious regressions to keep our offense about the same as 2025. Remember, we needed help on offense in '25. We still do!

We sorely need to replace Devers' power. Contreras on O might replace Lowe & Bregman's O, but we still have to replace Devers + Ref.

Kluber had done better the previous season than Richards did. Both cost $10M/1.

No. He says making predictions is pointless and worthless.

How about... Duran & Harrison to PHI Painter & DHam to AZ KMarte & T Banks to BOS

We hashed this over and over, at the time of the trade. Some stats and metrics show he's a #1 or #2, if you go by top 30 or top 60. Some show he's a #3 or #4. I'd say he's okay as a #2. I'd have preferred better. Even Brez avoided saying he was a #2. Gray is old and showing some decline. With older pitchers I don't count three year averages as much as the last 1-2 years, but here are some key numbers with various recent sample size. 2025 Only: (you need a sample size of 80 IP to get the total to near 150.) 3.6 fWAR is 20th- a clear #1 or great #2! 3.39 FIP ranks 22nd, again a clear #1. (He's 54th in WHIP- a lower #2.) 104 ERA- ranks 82nd and that is a lower level #3. (91st is a #4.) I'd call him a #2 for 2025 but worry if he declines more, he's more like a #3 (with Bello.) 2024 to 2015 (150+ IP qualifies) 77th in ERA- at a pedestrian 100. (#3) 41st in WHIP (#2) 7.4 fWAR is an amazing 14th and a top tier #1! 3.26 FIP is also 14th. 2.95 xFIP ranks 5th behind Crochet, Skubal, Sale & Skenes!!!!! I'd say that makes him a solid #2 with worries about serious age decline.

Involve a third team, if they don't want Duran or Rafaela. Duran to PHI, Painter and Harrison to AZ.