moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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The draft is Dec 7th. I'm hopeful, but it is rare that a Rule 5 pick is significant, and maybe we used all our luck up on the Whitlock selection.
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You crack me up! I needed a good laugh, this morning.
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I think the team needs to return to the philosophy of higher OBP and a newer one on adding more speed or heads up baserunners. I think Abreu fits that mold, and yes, he shows better hope than Reed or Ort. Those type are everywhere- more like them will be released, today as other teams add Rule 5'ers to their 40 man rosters.
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The AFL numbers are a pretty small sample size, and a .774 OPS seems a bit better than okay in Portland. The larger sample size of the full 2022 season in AA shows a player worthy of protecting. .834 OPS in 579 PAs He was second in all of the minor leagues in BBs at 114. He's no speed demon, but he did steal 31 bases with only 3 CS. While 48 XBJs is not bad, his most important asset may be his OBP. It was .399, this season, .363 last season (A+) and .355 in A ball in 2019. With so little OD depth on the farm, I view him right behind Rafaela and above Duran as our OF farm depth for 2023. I think we protect him.
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My prediction for Rule 5 Protection Day: We add: Rafaela, Walter, Ward to get us to 40. DFA Chang and add Murphy DFA C Hamilton and add W. Gonzalez DFA Jake Reed (maybe Kaleb Ort) and add W Abreu Take our chances and do not protect: Paulino (too far away), Politi & Wallace (fingers crossed) I don't think we have to worry about: Fernandez, Bonaci, Scott, Feltman, Koss, Hamilton, Jimenez, V. Santos, Cottam or Granberg.
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Tuesday Nov 15th: Rule 5 eligible players must be added to the 40 man roster of be at risk of being selected in the draft. Nov 18: non-tender deadline Dec 7th: Rule 5 Draft & Winter Meetings begin
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Here's what SPs says about JW: Summation: Potential volatile, up-and-down middle reliever. Ceiling of a late-inning reliever. Has among the best raw stuff for a true relief prospect in the system, with the potential for two plus pitches. Unique delivery gives hitters a very different look on the mound, but it also makes his future more unpredictable. Harsh delivery and inconsistent command and control profile give him low odds to reach his peak potential. Even if he reaches the big leagues, will likely have good stretches and bad stretches, making him tough to count on year after year. Very intense on the mound, always competes.
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Thanks. I missed that one. So, we are at 37 with several bubble roster players that may go, when we add the rule 5 guys, add several more when we start signing FAs or trading for more 40 man roster players than we give back. My DFA (Trade away) list is as such (in order of least liked:) Chang C Hamilton (maybe RHern but not both, unless we add Scott and think he could be called up to MLB in a pinch.) J Reed Ort DHern Seabold (Probably tradeable here and below) Brasier Cordero Hosmer Downs (not likely DFA'd here and below) Duran Wink
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With Kike's control ending after this year, and Mayer maybe ready by 2024, it does seem like OF is a much larger longer term need, despite Rafaela's pending readiness.
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They did have luck with health, but I do think saying it's an accident makes it sound like Bloom/Cora had little to do with the success. I guess one could say Whitlock & Pivetta were lucky, but I don't think Kike was luck.
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If they think there is a chance Wikelman gets taken, I'd protect him over keeping some of the scrubs we have on the 40, right now. I think W Abreu would be taken, if he's left unprotected. I'd protect him. E Valdez needs to be added to the roster as a minor league FA, or he will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. He is a lock for the 40, IMO.
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It may "tell" they don't think he's close enough to be on the "may" list.
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Okay. Not on the "may get taken list" could be telling.
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Plus the loss of 2 draft picks. I seriously doubt we make a strong push for him.
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Scott is eligible, but I have not heard his name mentioned for protecting by anyone, until MVP, now.
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RHern certainly did not step up in 2022, but .749 is not bad for a catcher and 44 XBhs in 410 ABs is a plus. They may want to give him one more year. It might come down to their decision on protecting Scott or not, but they may also move him and keep C Hamilton, Wong and McGuire as the 3 catchers on the 40.
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Since I don't view X as a great defensive SS, I'm not sure what my problem is, but I'm just not sure his bat, alone is worth $200M/7- the contract you suggest as top end.
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They may trade Mayer, if the sign Correa or Bogey. I guess they could move Bogey to 3B or LF as early as 2024, but is he worth $200M/7 in LF? I don't think the trade Mayer. We may play Kike at SS in 2023 or add or sign a 1 year bridge player. Maybe we go big in the OF and pitching staff, this winter, and punt at SS.
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In all honesty, I thought it was going to still be part of the cliff, but a team on the upswing. Bloom did a great job building up the 40 man roster depth in 1 year. In hindsight, it's hard to view 2021 as a "cliff," but so many players declined in production from '21 to '22, and not just because of injuries, that one could argue 2021 was a bit of a fluke. One could also argue Bloom and Cora worked magic to create a winner from scratch. I certainly think the results of 2020-2022 were greatly influenced by the lack of just about zero positive infusions from the farm since 2017. One could argue the cliff was 3 years long. One might say 2023 is, too, but to me, with farm infusions looking good and plenty of budget space, I'd say the "cliff" is over, but residual effects remain.
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This list looks a lot more encouraging than the 2019, 2020 or 2021 list. Not all will help, but the sheer quantity of decent players on that list, many ready now or sometime in 2023 or 2024 is enough to not think we are 4 years away from having a solid foundation to add key FA and trade pieces to build a ring team by 2024 or 2025.
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I'm not sure I'd go higher than $160-165/6 for Bogey- maybe $175/7, but with Mayer in the wings, we'd be paying Bogey SS money to play where? LF? 3B (no Devers in 2024?)
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Agreed. By the deadline, they realized the window had slammed shut and no deadline moves adding salary were made. The window closed at the deadline on 2019. The cliff started in 2020. We can haggle over it being over or not, right now, but the effects were real. The most stark evidence is looking at who we brought up from the farm since devers in mid 2017: The most notable names: Houck Dalbec Duran That's 5 and half years! The cliff was predictable and occured.
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I didn't think the 2022 team was a last place team. I thought we'd be on the upswing after the 2020 "cliff" bottomed out. I thought 2021 might be a cliff, too, but the surprise maybe got my hopes up too high on '22. I would not consider 2023 to part of the cliff, but not being a top competitor can be explained by rebounding from it.
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Yes, or any resources you use should only be used, if they help the team in 2024 and beyond, emphasis on beyond. If the idea is to wait for Mayer, then we may just add a 1 year SS or slide Kike there and add another OF to the winder wish list. Recent grads and MLB ready or near ready Sox players: C Wong, RHern (Nathan in 2025?) 1B Casas (Jordan/Kavadas in 2025?) 2B E Valdez (DH), Yorke 3B Binelas (Jordan 1B in '25? Paulino in '25?) SS Mayer, Lugo, Rafaela, Downs, Bonaci (Romero & Coffey in '26?) OF Rafaela, Abreu, Duran (Paulino in '25 and Bleis & Anthony in '26) P Bello, Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, TWard, Kelly, German, Murphy, Seabold (Wikelman & others in '25 and Perales & others in '26)
