moonslav59

Nope.

They also greatly improved their pen from 2-6 years ago, but yes, they have very tough starters and are 6-7 deep.

Kinda the same thing we did in 2018- using starters in key relief appearances.

Of course my reasoning behind my seeing an approaching cliff had something to do with my thinking upper management had low expectations for a ring competitive team by 2021. The time frame iks close enough to be linked together. I did not expect the downfall to begin in 2019. I actually said maybe we could extend the window to 2020, if we played our cards right and decided to spend. The 2020 team did not resemble the 2018 team, and that was clearly a "cliff season." Whether we consider the cliff to be more than 1 year in length can be debated, but to me, the rebuild was obvious in 2020, and the 2021 was a continuation of the rebuild, although with hopes we could maybe squeak into the playoffs and give fans some excitement and hope. The sheer amount of one year deals supports the idea that 2021 was not part of some idea that a 3-4 year window was about to begin. It looked like a punt season with hopes of semi-competitiveness, in my opinion. I'm not sure the success of 2021 changed the longer term plans all that much. The 2022 roster construction continued to fill many slots with short term additions, until the Story signing. IMO, the 2023 season was always viewed as the season where major changes and additions would take place, with more on longer term deals, as farm infusions started becoming more meaningful and plentiful. I'm not sure they ever felt that even 2023 would be a top competitive team, since we are relying on several young prospects or recent grads to fill some very key roles to get to win a ring. I realize my position is just speculation, but I think I have some supporting evidence, such as all the one year deals and only the Story signing and Whitlock extension as any meaningful long term decision made. No major prospects have been traded. Betts was traded. Bogey may be gone, soon. Devers is on the clock. So far, this does not look like a management team in win-now mode.

Agreed. I think other teams likely have better talent to select than the ones we know more about- our own.

True, but there may be so many better choices out there than an injured Ward.

What are they going to say? I do think they felt they could be competitive enough to compete for a playoff slot- just not a top ring contender, until maybe mid season, when they starting thinking, "Holy s***!" I think, not going over the tax line in 2021 was a sign they did not think it was "the year." It wasn't even close to the tax level on opening day. Just my opinion.

If his medicals are highly questionable, I doubt anyone takes Ward. I don't think Wikelman is that far from being ML ready, especially on a 60 win team. I think he will be selected. Paulino may be too far away and might not even get to play on a 60 win team, but some team might choose to stunt his growth by parking him on the ML bench for a year, in hopes of hitting the jackpot years from now. There may be several players ranked ahead of Paulino from other teams, so maybe he is safe. Wallace could probably pitch in the bigs, next season. He may be selected. It's kind of a badge of honor for Bloom to have that much farm depth that we are talking 2-3 players who may be selected by other teams. I could also be a badge of disgrace, if one gets selected, does very well, while we hung onto Ort, DHern, Chang and Cordero. The equation goes deeper than that, however, as those 3 may be gone to make room for FA signings, so it might really have come down to Wikelman, Wallace and Ward vs R Hernandez, Hosmer, Downs or Duran. Those choices are tougher.

Not sure. I'd like to hear, if he was strongly on their radar from day one, or not. I was kind of surprised we had not spent up to the tax line as we neared the end of the major player signing period, so maybe he was always going to be signed, and they were waiting out other team's choices. Maybe another team was in on Story, and he waited to sign, until after that team refused to up their offer or chose another option and took their offer away. I'm still optimistic Story will turn into a positive value contractual signing.

Agreed. I just think the Sox upper management did not think 2021 was "the year." They kind of started thinking that way at the deadline, but even then, they did not make any major prospect for stud trades.

It seams like he was a "big splash" signing at non big splash contractual obligations. Not the $140M/6 is peanuts, but people are talking Bogey at $170M/6 or $190M/7, and even more by a few. I still like the signing, even though, at the time, I thought we signed him to play SS.

If all he can play is LF or DH, I'd pass, unless we trade Dugo and somehow acquire a RF'er, too. Your point seems spot on.

I don't disagree, but it seems like the very highly competitive teams are the ones winning the vast majority of rings. Even when a team like the Nats or Braves win it all, we can see that much effort and resources went into building up their rosters. While teams like the '21 Sox and '22 Phillies widen our eyes to hopes of miracle runs to rings, they are few and far between. IMO, to win a ring, teams need to strategically plan for a window- somehow the Astros have created a 10 year window and then "POUNCE" in the year or two you think your chances are the highest. It's still no guarnatee, but to me, that seems like the best way to win a ring every 4-7 years.

The NFL is probably better known for parity than MLB. It seems like teams like the Yanks are no longer just throwing money at every "hole" or weaker slots- only the Dodgers seem to be doing that. Other "model" franchises like the Astros, Rays and Braves seem to have figured out how to keep the pipeline strong and deep to a level they rate to b e competitive for many years to come. I sense the Sox are headed in that direction, but it's hard to know, until we start seeing results from our pipeline. I applaud Bloom for the effort, but the results time is here and now- maybe until 2024.

Way less holes when compared to the winter before 2020, and the deadline trades of 2020 helped fill some, but we had some holes in the pen and rotation that are not hindsight observations. One can argue 1B and RF were not "holes," but we had nothing of note as back-up plans for those two slots. My point was maybe not really "holes," per se, and yes I'm walking back my statement, but not really enough championship caliber players to realistically think we had a strong enough chance at a ring to make one or two more "splash" signings beyond Story, and maybe going $19M over the tax line. I don't think upper management viewed 2022 as "the year." I don't think they viewed 2022 that way, either, but maybe the run by the Phillies, and to a lesser extent our run in 2021, might change that way of thinking.

I know it's just theory. To be honest, I think 2021 surprised them, and that is why they spent some at the deadline. I'm pretty sure 2021 raised their expectations up as it did with fans, but I still think they knew they had too many holes in the roster to be considered a top competitive team, even if just about everything went right, which of course, it did not. Now, what are the true expectations for 2023? Was it just a snow job to talk about being much better in 2023, or did they really mean it? Maybe their hopes for incoming prospects is higher than most fans view it, or maybe they really do plan on spending right up to the line or blow past it, and re-set next winter. I'm leaning towards the 2024 season looking like the better chance at going all the way, so I think we re-set, this winter. I think we can get much better in 2023 while making no moves that hurt 2024, and some that help in 2024, too and beyond. (I hope so, too.)

Certainly a logical position to hold. Maybe they thought they could sign Story and still re-set, but it seemed to me, as more and more players were showed interest in signed elsewhere, we were heading for an under-tax-line season- then, BAM! The Story signing. Your reasoning makes sense, but I still think there was a high priority to stay under in 2022, but circumstances changed or became more apparent to upper management, and the balance tilted towards spending more.

According to cots, the Sox biggest pluses and minus from their EOY budget to BOY budget are as follows: in $Millions... +/- +25 '00>'01 (+4 in season) -6 '01>'02 (+2) -10 '02>'03 (+5) +23 '03>04 (+3) -7 '04>'05 (-7) +4 '05>'06 (+17) +6 '06>'07 (+12) -22 '07>'08 (+13) -26 '08>'09 (+19) +28 '09>'10 (+1) -7 '10>'11 (+10) +1 '11>'12 (-7) -14 '12>'13 (+22) -20 '13>'14 (+12) +16 '14>'15 (+1) +12 '15>'16 (+3) -3 '16>'17 (-8) +44 '17>'18 (-3) +6 '18>'19 (-8) ~-60 '19>'20 (-11) -4 '20>'21 (+7) -1 '21>'22

It's not about last place finishing: it's about the status of the foundation and projected incoming and exciting farm help and younger players nearing prime. I do not think the big rotation purge was planned. I think they felt 2015 might be the start of "the window." In some ways, one could view 2023 or 2024 as being about the time to think a window is opening or about to open.

OF'er Masataka Yoshida was just posted. Might the Sox kick some more tires?

Close but not really large and not really long.

No, it was what I thought from before 2021 even started. I thought they might go over the line in 2021 or 2022, but not both and likely neither. JH usually does not spend big, until he thinks we are a key player or two away from a ring window. My thoughts had nothing to do with transaction lock-outs.

I always thought they viewed 2024 and beyond as the better chance at a ring. It looked that way all winter long, until the March Story signing.

Certainly, Story might have always been on the burner, or even a sure bet signing once other signings did not materialize. At the time, before I knew about the arm issues, I thought he was a lock to play SS, at least starting in 2023, but we also needed a 2Bman. It appeared to me, the plan was to not go over the tax line in 2022. That is one reason I think the late Story signing was kind of a knee jerk decision. The puzzling part to me, was that we still could have gotten under the tax line with a little more creativeness by Bloom after the Story signing.

If my theory is correct about the Story signing being a somewhat "unplanned" signing, that might explain why some earlier moves were not made, but before the Story signing we still had room for several "near miss" signings.