moonslav59

A Devers extension and a Swanson and one from Kluber, Conforto or gallo addition would do it for me, but I have to think mayer is the plan. Andrus is our best hope for anything at SS, short term.

Yes, we needed 7 slots more than LF/DH and only so much to spend. it's not foolish to not like the fact we spent $18M of the $80M on our 7th or 8th highest need. I never said "one specific position over LF/DH." Yes, we filled 2 of the top 7 slots with Jansen & Martin, so we had 4-5 higher needs than LF/DH when we signed Yoshida (SS, SP 1/2, RF, SP3/4 and maybe C.) Fine to disagree, but I hardly think it's foolish to focus on your highest needs to spend the most resources on.

When you know you are not going to go over for 3 years straight, it makes more sense. I guess you could just plan on every 3rd year and try to match up your signings accordingly, so you have 2 year windows and if you do it right, maybe pull a 2013 surprise every now and again. I think the plan is to build up the farm enough, so resetting is not such a major deal. It can be "handled" by incoming, low-cost producers at a steady pace. Until we get there, I think we need to decide 2023 or 2024.

I don't and never have believed they honestly felt they'd be highly or even semi-highly competitive every year, even if you throw 2020 out of this discussion. What make sense is to choose what years you reset based on which years you think the best chance of winning are. 2013 threw a wrench into that the cycling theory, and maybe 2021 did, too, but honestly, which season as of right now looks like we have a better chance? 2023 or 2024? To me, it comes down to whether Devers will be here in 2024, or not. If we plan on letting him walk after 2023, then I guess going over in 2023 for some sort of late charge at glory as the devers window closes might make more sense, but if the plan is to keep devers beyond 2023, I'm thinking 2024 offers a better chance to splurge on. Another big reason why splurging on 2024 is better than 2023, is there is nothing left to splurge on, this winter, while 2024 has way more options.

I've thought all along, this wasn't the FA class to spend big on a FA starter. I've thought the best route was to trade for one, but what to trade? I guess loading up the pen, so Whitlock and Houck can start may be a better risk than signing Senga or the likes of Kluber or Nate, but I had hopes for a better staff by opening day. Those hopes are fading, daily.

Same red flags- maybe more on Senga. I already explained why I'd prefer Senga- knowing full well, I could be wrong. We needed pitching not LF and barely needed a DH. That is my main reason.

No, of course you can contend when under, but I am pretty certain we will continue the practice of never going over for 3 years in a row. I'll believe otherwise, when I see it. In that light, when does it make more sense to splurge on key need areas? For 2023 or 2024, because it won't be both. Splurging increases the odds on the chosen year, right?

Agreed. If the clock is starting now on a 5 year plan, which I don't think it is or is viewed like that by JH & Co, then even the Yoshida signing was wasteful. I think they view us as starting year 4 of a 4 or 5 year rebuild plan. It's just my opinion. That may be why we didn't go large and long on anyone, because the eye has always been on 2024 or 2025.

No, and not so much because I have more faith in Senga over Yoshida, but because SP was near the top of my list of high need areas- LF/DH was like 7th or 8th. I think we could have done both, but I'd still like getting a SP + SS or RF'er better than a SP and LF/DH. That being said, I think the Yoshida signing will be a good one, but maybe my glasses are too pink.

I hope they don't think any truth to this being a 5 year rebuild starts the clock in 2023.

Going over means a reset in 2024 and pushes any hopes of being a top contender to 2025. I guess that is just after 5 years from 2020 to 2024. We don't lose much, next year: Kike $10M, Barnes $9M and Paxton $4M. I not only think we will reset, I think we should reset in 2023.

I think the "stir" was more about the point about some scouts thinking we grossly overpaid- not that you think we might have. I think you also said you were okay with the signing, so it seems like we all have mixed feeling about the addition. The thing that bothers me the most, and I'm not losing a wink of sleep over it, was that we spent such a big percent of our winter spending budget on LF/DH. I've already been a crybaby on us hording LF'ers and DH was like 7th or 8th on my high need area Christmas list. I, too, am glad we finally spent on the pen, and enough to safely move Whitlock to the rotation without making the pen a net negative, on paper. I still hope we add more than just Whitlock to a rotation now missing Nate, Wacha and Hill (69 starts in 2022 combined,) but if Whitlock can add 20 GS'd to his 2022 total of 9, we only need 2 more SP'er not 3. Maybe Bello and Houck can take up some of that slack, but taking Whitlock and Houck from the pen, makes that now near a push, which is not good. It comes down to Sale and Paxton or some surprise from Mata/Walter/Murphy/Crawford/Wink/Seabold, and I'm not thrilled about even the combined chances of all of them togther.

The list is not pretty. Many of the trades we acquired prospects for included getting a MLB player attached (Ottavino & German/ Cordero w Wink & 4 long shots/ Hosmer with Ferguson & Rosier/ Pivetta w Seabold/ JBJ with Binelas & Hamilton and Downs & Wong w Verdugo.) Only the Valdez & Abreu for Vaz deal looks like a straight MLB for only prospects deal that might add value. The Waiver, Rule 5 and Minor FAs additions looks better: Whitlock Schreiber Refsnyder Kelly

I'm not sure if BTV has updated it's numbers, recently, but here is who they have as the worst signings, so far in 2022: (I missed some by accident near the top. I missed some on purpose as I got down near zero) -18 deGrom -14 Vazquez -11 Correa -11 Rizzo -10 Taillon -8.4 Bellinger -8.4 Estevez -7.8 Quintana -7.8 Stripling -7.6 Pederson -6.8 Montero -6.3 Bell -6.2 Abreu -5.7 Jansen -4.2 C Santana -4.0 Bassitt -3.2 Kahnle -3.0 T Walker -2.6 T Anderson -2.0 Nimmo -1.9 Robertson -1.6 Heaney -0.9 Verlander -0.3 Haniger & Mancini -0.3 Joely Rodriguez -0.2 Manaea TBD Yoshida +0.3 Martin

If we knew Sale and paxton would plan their vacations....errr...I mean IL stints for July, good move.

I think he tell his new GM it's 5 years then springs a surprise when glory is not reached in 4.

If they start the extension clock in 2023, maybe it lessens the AAV for future years by a little bit, and helps explain why $40M is still on the table. Now, a Devers extension will not eat $40M up, since the differential between his expected arb cost and his new AAV is all that counts, but it would take up some. The rest could still be spent on a combo of Kluber, Conforto/Gallo and or Andrus/Segura/Drury.

Hard to argue. How he translates is the great unknown. Then again, how well does Boget, Rodon and deGrom do? What happens, if Bogey pouts when asked to move off SS sooner than he wants? Everyone has some sort of risk when signed long term.

I think Kluber could handle the pressure, and may not be all that "high risk."

It's like the whole Ben the Coffee Boy thing redux. Likely, the same ending. Upper management loves having fall guys. I'm just not sure the masses are so easily fooled, anymore. If Henry continues his pattern of cycling into highly competitive windows, I'm okay with some down turns, but just coming clean would be better, to me. (I know many never want to hear the words "downturn, rebuild or cycle," but the games being played only make it worse.

zI think we add one more high risk picther.

I doubt we see much change from the EOY to BOY rankings, unless we trade a top prospect or add one, but I like our farm's improvement. We recently graduated Whitlock & Houck (mid '21) and Bello, Wong, Crawford, Wink, Duran and Ort in '22. Our top orpsects now are... 1. Mayer 2. Casas (soon to graduate) 3. Bleis 4. Rafaela 5. Yorke 6. Mata 7. Romero 8. Walter (26 years old) 9. Anthony 10. Perales 11. Paulino 12. Wikelman 13. Murphy 14. Lugo 15. Jordan 16. Bonaci 17 E Valdez 18. Hickey 19. Rodriguez-Cruz 20. Kavadas 21. Coffey 22. Seabold (26) 23. Downs (I knew he was overrated) 24. German 25. Drohan 26. Kelly (27 yrs old) 27. RoHern (25) 28. Abreu 29. Brannon 30. Paez 31. Uberstine 32. Hamilton

I doubt anyone foresaw it being half, but I'm pretty sure they liked him at $140M vs Bogey at $170m, at the time of the signing (same years.)

BTV accepted... Houck & Verdugo for Lopez, A Garcia & Berti. Berti could play 2B or RF and lead off, with Yoshida batting second (or flip them). This lengthens the line-up and fills the RF and 2B needs with freeing up the logjam in LF/DH. Lopez may not be a number 1, but he's better than almost all our starters, looking at 2023 projections. Sign Kluber and or Fulmer, and I'd be happy with the winter. We keep all our top prospects and downgrade at only SS with maybe minor downgrades at C and a slot or two in the rotation. Every other slot looks like a plus or equal. Extend Devers and presto magnifico!

But now, that contract looks like a steal. It's half what Bogey got!