moonslav59

Yes, that's always your point.

Who is high on Wong? I think the bar being set at Plawecki makes a possible improvement not so far-fetched, but it's not about any great expectations for Wong.

Dugo started declining in 2021, but yes the expectation was better going into '22 than going into '21 and now '23. Kike, too. Bogey had 23 Hrs and 79 RBI in 2021. That's not all that great, but yes, expectations were higher than _____, this coming year. JD had a nice 2021 season (.867 w 28 Hrs and 99 RBI), but did we really expect better in '22 than '21? Vaz was coming off a .659 OPS season. I expect better than that from McGuire and Wong. I know you had very low expectations for Dalbec and JBJ, so you should have much higher expectations for Casas and Yoshida. Arroyo led all players in PAs at 2B with 181. Story promised to greatly improve on that, for sure. Replacing Marwin's 271 PAs (9th on the '21 team" looked like a plus going into '22, but we were also without Schwarber .957, Iggy .915 and we knew Plawecki was not going to hiy .737 again.

Agreed, I think the catcher jobs are McGuire's and Wong's to lose, which of course, could happen. I like the added depth signing of Alfaro and along with the Duvall signing makes me think improving OBP is not really the number one or over-riding priority for the 2023 offense look. Turner's .381 OBP since 2017 should be a big help. Yoshida rates to have a super high OBP, but who knows? Tapia's OBP since 2020 is .322- not bad for a 4th OF'er and better than our putrid OF OBP of .301, last year. Hopefully, more PAs from these guys will bring up our team OBP from last year's .322 number: .358 Casas .322 Arroyo .377 McGuire (w the Sox) .313 Wongs (Plawecki's was .287) Maybe steps up from ... .358 Devers (his career high was .361 in 2019, so maybe asking for an uptick here is asking for too much.) .328 Dugo (.355 '20-'21 and .341 career) .291 Kike (.322 '18-'21 and .314 career)

I listed Hamilton, because he is on the 40 and, right now, our middle IF depth is close to zero. We all know the over under on Arroyo's first IL stint in April 9th. As for pitchers vs everyday players: last year 26 players got 1 PA or more- actually 12 or more. 28 non-everyday players pitched .1 IP (actually 3.1 or more). That's pretty close to even. We currently have 23 pitchers on the 40 man roster. 17 are everyday players with 13 of them starting on the ML roster. That leaves 4 in AAA/AA- most likely Rafaela, Hamilton, Duran, Abreu and Tapia or Alfaro added once Story head to the 60 day IL. As of now, our 4 man ML bench looks like: Wong C, Dalbec 1B/3B, EValdez 2B/1B & Refsnyder OF. Once we add a middle IF'er, Hamilton's chances will diminish, greatly, but I'd still put him above Feltman. I might even put Santos, Shugart, Drohan or Ryan Fernandez above Feltman

I'd say Hamilton and Rafaela have a better chance than Feltman.

OK. You said to "start the season," so I thought you meant April. We are way better than the line-up pre-Story. We had JBJ, Dalbec and Arroyo as FT'ers this time, last year.

Having Arroyo penciled into the line-up certainly hurts the outlook. Hopefully, we add a middle IF'er to push Christian to the bench. CF is still a question, too. I do think we will be greatly improved at 1B on O and D. I think devers improves as he reaches prime. I'm hopeful Dugo's new workout regime improves his numbers. I honestly think McGuire & Wong can equal the catcher O of 2022 and improve on the D. I think Turner improves on JD's DH numbers. Yoshida's plus on O helps lessen the blow of losing Bogey's O. Kike has to make up for Story's loss, but Story wasn't great in 2022, so it's not a mountain needed to be climbed. Duvall, Arroyo and whoever we add at middle IF could be keys.

It's certainly a defendable position. You are not alone. IMO, when people think of us losing Bogey & JD, they are remembering more the accomplishments from 2018 and 2019 more than 2021 and 2022. Last year's opening day line-up was: (All players with 200+ PAs are listed) 1. Kike .629 2. Devers .879 3. Bogey .833 4. JD .790 5. Verdugo .732 (Pham .672) 6. Story .737 (Arroyo .736) 7. Dalbec .652 (Cordero .697) 8. JBJ .578 (Duran .645) 9. Vaz .759 (Plawecki .574) Lost by ranking in most PAs in 2022: 2. Bogey .833 in 631 PAs 4. JD M .790 in 596 6. Story .737 in 396 (This is over 1600 PAs and a major hit to the offense.) But also... 7. Dalbec .652 in 353 8. Vaz .759 in 318 10. JBJ .578 in 290 11. Cordero .697 in 275 12. Pham .672 in 235 15. Plawecki .574 in 175 19. Hosmer .631 in 50 .322 from Sanchez in 44, .427 from Downs in 41, .596 from Chang in 26 and .000 fro Shaw + Arauz in 31 combined PAs This list has more PAs than the list above of the 3 players lost. Additions: .788 Turner in 532 (.940 in last 289 PAs) ???? Yoshida More from... .766 Casas .677 McGuire (.877 w Sox) .651 Wong (career) Kike & Arroyo? It's certainly not a slam dunk to say we should be better, and maybe my hopes for Yoshida, Turner, Casas, Kike, Arroyo and others are misplaced, but I'm still thinking 2023 line-up will be better than 2022. You went on and on about us not replacing Renfroe's 98 RBIs from 2021, but how hard should it be to replace Bogey's 73, Story's 66 and JD's 62? And those are the big 3. Turner had 81. Casas projected to 80. That means Yoshida just needs 40.

Agreed, and that would likely mean they were going "bananas."

Too bad Bello graduated by a hair.

You honestly think last year's line-up and pen were better? .661 RF .671 CF .683 1B .694 C .694 LF .724 2B .763 DH .815 SS .856 3B Yes, we basically lost 2 FT SP'ers with 26 GS from Hill, 23 from Wacha and 20 from Nate, but what the half empty guys fail to see is that we added Kluber, and more from Whitlock & Bello and also have the 3rd SP'er to replace, which should be very easy to improve upon: 14 Winckowski 5.89 12 Crawford 5.47 5 Seabold 11.29 3 Davis 5.47 That's 34 awful starts and Sale, Paxton, Kluber, Bello, Whitlock and maybe Houck, Mata and Walter to fill up that half of the glass. BTW, I'm only saying we should significantly improve on a last place team and NOT winning any WS ring.

Yes, who has an option, and so may begin in AAA.

I know many don't believe it, but we are better than last year, on paper, and likely a lot better. We got worse at SS and now 2B with the Story surgery, but when compared to the 2022 team, we look better or even at just about every other slot on the 26 and maybe even the 40. We even have prospects not on the 40 that may be added during the season that look better than a few players on last year's 40. This is a pretty good line-up: 1. L Yoshida LF 2. R Kike SS 3. L Devers 3B 4. R Turner DH 5. L Casas 1B 6. R Duvall CF 7. L Dugo RF 8. R Arroyo 2B (Maybe we add Andrus, Iggy, Harrison or trade for Wendle or the like.) 9. L McGuire Bench: R Wong C, R Refsnyder OF, R Dalbec 1B, L Duran, EValdez or Tapia The rotation may not match last year's level, but a bounce back from Sale or Paxton may be all we need to improve: 1. Sale 2. Kluber 3. Whitlock 4. Bello 5. Pivetta 6. Paxton (Houck) Our pen is much better, even without Whitlock: Closer: Jansen RP2: Martin RP3: Houck RP4: Schreiber RP5: Barnes RP6: Rodriguez RP7: Taylor RP8: Brasier The ML Ready farm depth is better than last year. C: Alfaro, Hamilton, RHern, Scott IF: Mayer, Rafaela, EValdez, Hamilton, Goodrum, Koss (weak area) OF: Rafaela, Tapia, Duran, Allen, Crook, Abreu SP: Mata, Walter, Santos, Drohan SP/RP: Crawford, Winckowski, Murphy RP: Kelly, German, Ort

Not just Japanese.

None have put up numbers like he has for so long at a level probably better than AAA, either.

It is highly speculative, but I see nothing wrong with being optimistic about having so many highly rated and ranked prospects and more that aren't ranked, yet. Many of us were super high on the farm DD inherited, and many of them never panned out like we hoped for. Fortunately, we traded many of them when their stock was higher than they ever deserved. Maybe, this farm is the same, and we should trade many before they are exposed. DD did the right thing by keeping Devers, and apparently Bello, Casas and Mata, but we'll see. I'm thinking, to have a real chance at sustainable winning, the farm needs to keep a steady infusion of top talent to the big club. I'm hoping we give that plan a chance.

They have a group of people who assign values to various tools, but yes, much has to be subjective or arbitrary. I'd think Yoshida has proven he has some high scores for various tools more than many guys ahead of him, but the upside factor plays into it, too.

Certainly, several will end up not impressing, and if we continue the one for nine hit rate we saw with Houck out of the 9 prospects over the last 5 years, "meh" is a good choice of words. I'm one to value quality over quantity, but the odds have gone up with 13-15 prospects now vs 9 over the last 5 years, combined. Casas and Bello already look as promising as Houck. Mata, Walter and Kelly look pretty good. Mayer and Rafaela may be too raw to give us anything in 2023, but it is nice to have super promising kids like them very near to ML ready. Call me an eternal optimist, but I'd rather have 13+ promising prospects than 2-3.

I can understand counting Yoshida, but if you are going to count him, how is he just 87th? 2 in the top 30 is pretty impressive with Bello being a very recent grad who would have been near top 30, too.

It goes way beyond just the failures of Downs and Duran. We've seen just Houck be successful from mid 2017 (Devers) to mid 2022 (Bello & Casas), if you even want to call them successes, at this point. It makes the life of any GM extremely difficult to succeed. Saying this is not meant to give props to Bloom or make excuses. It is what it is. While Bello and Casas do seem like the surest bets, this year, I think Kelly and Wong will fill key and important support roles, something we haven't even seen for 5+ years. I really like Mata, Walter and have some middling hopes for German and EValdez, but there is a decent chance none shine in 2023. I am hopeful Crawford or Wink take a step up, but I'm not counting on it. If Mayer or Rafaela get a long look, it will likely be because of injury, a failed season or they are just going bananas on the farm and are screaming for a ML chance. Hamilton, RHern and Ort are long shots, so my list could really be viewed as 13 not 16, with 8-10 having a realistic shot at getting a long enough look to win a key slot on the 26. That is pretty amazing, when you think that's a third of a roster full of veterans with successful seasons under their belt in the last 2-3 years plus Yoshida. 9 is over a third of 26. We've had 9 in the past 5 years combined.

If the plan was not to go for it in 2023, it did not matter much on when we reset. For the extended future, it's better we reset in '23 than in '22, if we only stayed under one year. I had hopes we'd think we could be more highly competitive, this year, and splurge a little more, but it was not to be. Other than the Yoshida deal, the rest seem like placeholder deals with an eye on maybe being highly competitive in 2024, since more deals are 2 year deals or have 2nd year options than any other year under Bloom. (Story: 4 more years, but was signed last March.) Devers 10 Yoshida 5 Jansen 2 Martin 2 Turner 1 + 1 (such a high buyout, it's essentially a 2 yr deal) Kluber 1+ 1 Joely 1 + 1 (then, arb 3) Mills is pre-arb (McGuire has 3 arbs left.) Kike 1 (extended last summer)

His teammates didn't mind.

I think he has $4M in performance bonuses. I thought there was a cap on those.

And, the last 3 years, too. Short term experienced, bridge players.