moonslav59

But, but, but, the ring... !

We did do better than expected in 2021. To me, the plan was to not look real bad for 3-4 years and be highly competitive in 4-5 years. 2020 was a cluster and really no GM's fault. Bloom is 1 for 1 in my book, which is not bad, considering the context. Not great, either, and I did expect he'd do better on finding low cost players who over perform. He seemed to miss by a year or two on Perez and Springs, and he did well acquiring Strahm, Wacha, Hill, Kike, Whitlock, Refsnyder, Schreiber, Arroyo and Renfroe for peanuts, but far too many of those type additions failed.

I'm not so sure he's as good a GM when asked to cut $60M and have to find bargain basement performers. Maybe he would have been. It was a near impossible situation for any GM to create a winning team out of that roster and farm with a mandate to cut $60M, then add just $20M, the next year.

You think DD would have done much better having to slash $60M from the 2019 budget and have no farm help for 5 years? He probably could have by trading Casas, Bello and Rafaela. Maybe he'd have done well trading Duran and Dalbec before they crashed and burned. I just don't see how any GM could have done much better- maybe somewhat better, yes, especially if they traded prospects for the 2020-2022 window, but what would that have accomplished? Would DD have kept Sale and ERod healthy in 2020? Would he have prevented declines by young and aging players in 2022? My guess: he'd have quit, if forced to cut $60M.

...and he's been a significant reason for the club's recent lack of it.

Everyday Farm Help: Enmanuel Valdez (DH/1B/2B/LF?) Potential up-and-down, platoon bat. Ceiling of a bat-first utility player. Makes hard contact and has a decent approach against right-handed pitchers, but struggles against lefties. Has moved around the diamond, but that is driven by him being below-average defensively and trying to find where he will best fit rather than true versatility. Will have to hit to hold value given defensive limitations. Ceddanne Rafaela (CF/SS/2B) Potential bench utility player. Ceiling of an everyday regular who adds considerable value on defense and also contributes some at the plate. Defensive ability and versatility and speed give him a high floor. Could be a plus defender at every position except catcher and first base. Bat lags behind, but has improved considerably in 2022. Approach is what holds him back now and will determine his ultimate value at the plate. Needs to cut down on chasing pitches out of the zone and improve swing decisions and quality of contact. Bobby Dalbec (DH/3B/1B/2B/LF?) Projects as a valuable role player on a contending team. Ultimate future potential depends on how his hit tool develops. Has the ceiling of an everyday regular with average defense who hits 30-plus home runs in his best seasons if he proves he can make enough contact against advanced pitching. If his hit tool doesn't progress he could struggle to make enough contact and become more of an up-and-down player. 2019 improvements helped to address these concerns, but needs to show those are real and not just a one-year aberration. He has worked hard cut down his strikeout rate as he has moved up the system and has improved considerably since he joined the organization as someone who came with more risk than a normal college performer. Tweaked swing mechanics and sole focus on hitting - no longer having to pitch - have helped. Has the potential for two plus-to-better tools in power and arm. Unlikely to ever hit for a high average and will always have a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but teams will be able to live with that given his power potential. David Hamilton (IF) Potential organizational utility player. Ceiling of an emergency up-and-down utility type. Could stand to remake his swing in order to prioritize line drives and hitting the ball on the ground more in order to better utilize his speed. Lack of defensive ability limits upside. Projects as below-average in the infield and could stand to move to the outfield, where his speed and athleticism would be better utilized. Wilyer Abreu (OF) Potential organizational outfielder. Ceiling of a major league reserve outfielder. Development of hit tool will determine his long-term potential. Has raw power and will take a walk, but needs to cut down on his swing-and-miss and show he can consistently make contact and impact the baseball. Non 40 man roster... Jorge Alfaro © Major league catcher. May not be an everyday players due to strikeout numbers. But should stick on a major league roster due to his power, defense, energy, and arm strength. Raimel Tapia (OF) Profiles as a reliable fourth outfielder and pinch runner. Value comes in his bat-to-ball skills, speed, base running, and versatility in the outfield. Greg Allen (OF) Solid Triple-A depth and 4th outfielder option. Christian Koss (IF) Potential emergency up-and-down utility infielder. Ceiling of a utility infielder. Hit tool development will be key to reaching his potential. Has enough defense and power to profile in a bench role, but upside is limited if he cannot make more contact. Narisco Crook (DH/OF) Triple-A depth. Said to be a fantastic clubhouse presence and a very well-liked player. Potential to be an emergency corner outfielder in an injury situation due to his defense and power. Contact skills limit upside. Others: Caleb Hamilton C Ronaldo Hernandez C Stephen Scott C Ryan Fitzgerald IF Nick Sogard IF Matt Lugo IF Delvin Granberg OF (M Mayer- late in the season?)

One reason I ended up saying 9-11, instead of 11, is for that reason. Wink and Murphy are very similar to pitching depth on all teams. Walter might be, too, but I probably like him more than most. Right now, if healthy, our 6-8 or 9 starters might be #5s on quite a few teams: Paxton (health is a huge if) Mata Crawford Walter I have also not given up on Winckowski after just one bad season of 70 IP, but I can certainly understand why many have.

Some Relief help from the farm? (Note: Mata, Crawford, Walter, Wink and Murphy may all play a role in the 2023 Red Sox pen as converted starters.) Zach Kelly Projects as a middle reliever. Ceiling of a consistent seventh-inning arm. Likely lacks late-inning upside due to inconsistent command, but could stick around for a while as a sixth-inning arm. Fastball and changeup both project as plus pitches, with changeup showing true bat-missing ability. Cutter is more of a pitch-to-contact offering at present, but if it improves, would give him a third pitch that can miss bats. Late bloomer who could continue to improve and see his stuff take a step forward again[/i Kaleb Ort Potential up-and-down reliever. Ceiling of a fifth-/sixth-inning arm who slots in as one of the last few members of a pitching staff. Future potential is tied up in improving his command. Has MLB-quality stuff, but command needs to take a step forward. Not on 40 man, (Spring Training Invites) as of now... Durbin Feltman Projects as a high-minors depth arm. Stuff and command and control have regressed across the board in 2022. Now projects for an average fastball and fringy secondaries. Unlikely to be able to regain stuff he showed initially after signing at this point. Candidate for a change of scenery where hearing other voices could help him regain his past form. Chase Shugart Projects as a solid organizational depth arm. Ceiling of an emergency major league depth reliever. Fastball and curveball show the most potential in arsenal. Athletic and repeats delivery well, but lacks consistency and may not miss many bats against major league hitters. Taylor Broadway Intriguing arm with a power three-pitch mix that could profile in a major league bullpen role. Has shown premium bat-missing ability, but also been hit very hard. Developing command and consistency are key for him to reach his potential. Ryan Sheriff Emergency lefty relief arm. Two-pitch pitcher might benefit from adding his changeup back to his arsenal. Could settle in at the back end of a major league bullpen if he can hone his control issues. Matt Dermody Emergency Triple-A depth lefty bullpen arm. Oddanier Mosqueda Projects as organizational bullpen depth. Ceiling of an up-and-down reliever. Has improved year after year and shown bat-missing ability. Secondary pitches and command and control need refinement. Will show intriguing spin rates on fastball and slider. Comes from a very tough angle for left-handed hitters and has excelled against them so far in the high minors. Norwith Gudino Projects as high minors depth with a chance to hone his three pitch mix to get a shot in the majors. Dan Altavilla Big fastball slider combo. Ceiling of a mid leverage bullpen arm if he comes back healthy. Control has been an issue in the past.

Two fringy prospect SP'ers who may make a run at ML time in 2023 or 2024: Victor Santos Potential solid organizational starter. Ceiling of an emergency up-and-down depth arm. High floor/low ceiling. Potential for two average secondary pitches, but lack of fastball potential limits ceiling. Has solid feel for pitching and an advanced command profile. Will throw strikes, but lacks put-away stuff against minor league bats and will struggle even more against more advanced hitters. Shane Drohan Potential up-and-down depth arm. Ceiling of a back-end starter or, more likely, middle reliever. Athletic left-hander who will show a three-pitch mix, but needs to develop physically and add velocity. Has more upside remaining than a typical college draftee. Has the type of athleticism you look for in a pitcher. Has shown a general feel for pitching and a repeatable delivery. Fastball command needs improvement, but changeup development and left-handedness give him a chance, most likely in a bullpen role.

The projected Woo rotation is all on the 40: (with some selected quotes from SPs) Mata Will show the potential for a true four-pitch mix with two potential plus offerings. Has shown the ability to miss bats with all four pitches at various points in his career. Harnessing command of his arsenal will be key for his development. Walter Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Will show a starter's arsenal with three average-or-better pitches and the ability to turn over a lineup, but does not have a typical starter's delivery. Control is already above-average-to-plus and command should get to at least average. Crawford Ceiling of a high-quality swingman, capable of pitching in short or long relief outings with the occasional spot start as well. Has the potential for two above-average offerings in his fastball and curveball and a solid third pitch with his cutter, but command needs refinement. Winckowski misses more bats than his changeup at this point, but still does not at a very high level. Margin for error is slim, as he has to rely on commanding his pitches and generating weak contact. To stick as a starter long-term, needs to make strides with his command and improve his slider to the point where it can be counted on as a consistent bat-missing pitch at the major league level. Can effectively tunnel his fastball, sinker, vertical slider and changeup, with all moving in similar ways, but could stand to mix in more of his cutter or a horizontal slider to give hitters a different look. Very competitive. Really thinks about pitching and is always trying to refine his craft. Murphy Ceiling of a back-end starter. Lacks a standout pitch, but has three averageish pitches and a fourth that can be effective when used on occasion. Needs to improve consistency with secondary pitches and command to allow him to work deeper into games and develop into a consistent starter. Chances of starting are better now than in the past now that he has shown he can consistently get right-handed hitters out, something he really struggled with coming into 2022. Showed inconsistent ability to miss bats in 2022 and will need to show more consistency there if he is to stick as a starter.

I'm holding out for Brainer Bonaci. It could be a while.

Do we need more than half the changes to work in order to improve on '22? The schedule change alone should add 4 more wins. While Yoshida and Turner might hit as well as the 2022 Bogey & JD, we may not need them to even come close- just to be respectable. We may take up the slack by improving on our 1B and OF numbers, which really sucked. While Sale and Paxton may give us close to nothing, we may be able to cobble together a decent rotation to go with the much improved pen. It's not like none of these guys have promise or upside abilities: (We only need 4-5 out of 9 to do well.) Kluber Whitlock Bello Pivetta Mata Crawford Walter Winckowski Murphy Other teams have 6-7 starters with real promise: we have 9-11. Our pen looks not only strong, but pretty deep, too, especially if we can use several from Crawford, Wink, Mata, Walter and Murphy out of the pen. Our line-up is questionable, but I think it rates to be better than 2022. Our defense looks to be worse at RF, 2B and maybe CF, but it should be better at 1B, SS and maybe C. There certainly are a ton of question marks on the 26, but most have serious upside and the rest of the 40 looks better, to me. The rest of the 40: Dalbec was basically a FT'er, last year: now he's in AAA. Duran ended up with 223 PAs, last year, now he may get none. EValdez, Rafaela, Hamilton and Abreu have replaced Downs, Almonte, Y Sanchez and Arauz. Walter, Murphy and Mills have replaced DHern, Seabold and Danish I'm feeling optimistic but with the knowledge those feeling can and might change on a dime.

Maybe the two seasons to Rule 5 was the major factor, but then again, there are hundreds of guys like that.

I had hoped the roster would be better, after this winter, but I like a lot of what was done. I think we will surprise. I like the direction of the farm and hope we start seeing results, this year, but more likely it will take 1-3 more years to really start feeling any kick we get from the farm. It's not the best farm, and graduating Bello and others should also be viewed as "help from the farm," but many teams can say the same thing about their recent grads. I guess I'm just not sure why anyone would not choose to be optimistic or at least a bit more enthusiastic about our farm, as compared to 2-5 years ago, or even longer. I can understand having serious doubts about the 2023 ML team. So many questions to be answered is not an encouraging thing.

Lots of ex-Sox players signing minor league deals all over the place. Our team did an excellent job preparing these players for the step down. Just trying to find things we are good at.

Then, I'll go 46. LOL.

"Overboard?" LOL I go out of my way to qualify it's all speculative.

softlaw was pretty bad, too- ripping Theo apologists and pink hatters, left and right,

SP's has Theo Denlinger on the 2024 Rule 5 Eligibility List.

My Mom is telling me it's going down to 50 below, wind chill, tonight. I'm glad I'm outta there, this time of year!

You got that right. Even Theo was getting more and more complaining, especially after 2007.

Where do you guess soxprospects.com will place Denlinger in their top 60? (German was 22nd and ahead of Kelly at 24th.)

...and then sign with a team who has an owner willing to spend, spend and spend some more.

No, they weren't.

It's the most important thing to all. Baseball is never a sure bet, even with know players. Much of our expectations are built upon speculation and hopes, even for vets. Sure;y, they are easier to have faith in, but we've seen how almost a whole group of vets can decline or have up years, all at the same time, and make or break a season. Prospects are much more speculative, but as a GM, you try your best to build up the farm. While many guesses go wrong, these ranking services to get more right than some random generator does, so they do pull some weight. There are examples of flops and surprises, everywhere. I'm just saying, I'd prefer to look at our farm and see good things happening, and other people seeing the same thing I'm seeing, than having most of the experts saying our prospects do not look to promising. Of course, any of our kids can end up being let-downs, but I like our quality and quantity for the first time in a very long time. I know I can be disappointed, but I don't think I'm being optimistic for no reason. I could be wrong, but I get the feeling you are choosing to be pessimistic with no real supporting evidence, except Law.