moonslav59

I don't know how to access minor league away splits. Enlighten me, and I'll do the footwork. No, I don't pay attention to my hometown minor league team. I didn't know Valdez played for them, until he was traded.

I've agreed it was a mistake to make that initial offer. You seem to have a hard time accepting when I agree with you. To you, nothing else matters about what came about afterwards. If the answer is nothing happened, then I'd agree that's another major strike against Bloom & Co. The problem is, we don't know. I have to think something else was said after that first offer. I'd like to know what it was. Unlike you, I'm not assuming that even a $160M/6 deal would have been a clear winning counteroffer, even if accepted by BorA$$ doubtful, IMO, until we see what Bogey does in the next 6 years. I'm 100% with you on the point about trading him, if we knew we were not going to make a serious run at extending him. I'm not sure how easy it would be under his no-trade status, but we probably could have gotten him to accept a trade. What, specifically, do you disagree with anything I just wrote?

So, it then comes down to what happened next. Did the Sox make a second offer or say they were prepared to go higher, and still got nothing back from BorA$$? Without knowing what happened and didn't happen, isn't it pointless to throw blame on anything beyond what is known- the initial lowball offer?z What if it comes out the Sox told BorA$$ they were willing to offer Bogey something north of what Story got and got no reply? Is it the Sox fault for not making a third or 4th offer despite no demands or frameworks for a deal presented by BorA$$? I'm not saying no: I'm just wondering what the facts are, before I give my opinion on everything after the lowball, initial offer.

I'm not saying there ever was a given demand, which makes the criticism of Bloom not taking it even more absurd. Fine, Blame Bloom for never making a serious counteroffer, although we are not sure that one was never given or discussed. Fine, blame Bloom for not trading Bogey, despite all the times you pointed out his no trade status. I'm all set to through plenty of blame at Bloom, if I know what he can be blamed for. Without knowing the number it would have taken to extend Bogey, the blame game on that point, alone, should be on hold. Other points are fair game, and I've agreed the lowball $30M 1 year addition was a mistake.

It is important to know what BorA$$'s demand was. If there never was one, it's hard to blame Bloom for never meeting a fictional number. Let's assume Bloom did or should have countered with $160M/6. Unless we know what BorA$$'s counter offer would have been, I find it hard to blame Bloom for not taking it, or not offering "what it would have taken," if we don't have that number. I get it. We may never know what that meeting point may have been, because the talks never progressed beyond that first offer, but if find it hard to believe no framework was ever presented by BorA$S or that the Sox never asked him what they felt it would take. If that proves to be true, I'm all on board with calling that a mistake, in itself, but I will never give my opinion about "we should have signed him," until I know the numb er it would have taken. It seems senseless to claim we should have done anything without knowing what that anything was. No doubt, serious mistakes might have been made and probably were, but maybe not on the amount we coulda, shoulda signed him for. No matter what that number was, we won't know until 6-18 years from now. We can give our opinions, like we did on ERod, and see later, if we were right or wrong.

What was it and provide a link.

At best, Valdez would be a platoon at 2B with Arroyo. He is not our SS.

I'm not doubting his numbers were padded by the home park. What were his away splits in 2022?

Okay, but his away numbers were better than the WOO numbers, right?

Yes, but IMO, the added bonus money is more important that the higher draft slots. We can send the $1M added bonus money on any draftee, not just the comp picks. Yes, they are tied together. We could waste the 70th pick, but use the $1M extra to draft a better player in round 2 or 3.

Doesn't it also have to do with what the BorA$$ lowest demand was? Maybe, we made a serious offer- maybe not. (Plus, can we all agree on even a framework of what "serious offer" means?) Maybe BorA$$ made a demand that was reasonable- maybe not. Knowing him, I'm guessing NOT.

Well said. Nobody is happy we lost Betts and may lose Devers. Many are upset over losing Bogey. Some over Beni and Vaz. Choosing to extend Sale and Nate may have forced these losses or played a major role in their losses. I hope we learn our lesson about locking up very promising young players before they become too expensive for JH to pay. Make a few mistakes- fine. They won't be $145M/5 mistakes like Sale. Just do it!

The IFAs also dipped a bit for a while, in part due to the penalty the Sox got under Ben. The drop in significant farm additions since Devers back in 2013 is rather astounding. It's a major reason we are where we are, now.

Yes, I mentioned the lowball offer. What I feel needs to be known before we can really pass judgement is what the lowest demand from BorA$$ was at given points in the timeline. How can we blame Bloom for not accepting an offer we don't know about? If Bloom turned down $160/6 right around the time of the Story signing, I would agree that looks like a serious mistake, especially in hindsight, but even that turn down could end up being a good, decent or okay decision, depending on what Bogey does over the next 6 years. That's my point. If Bloom turned down $225M/8 or $250M/9, was that a clear mistake? One could argue, he should have traded him, if that was the demand. I'd be fine saying not trading him over those offers as a mistake, too, but many here were against trading even JD at the deadline, so what would trading Bogey have unleashed? If the demand was $200M/8, it gets kinda hairy, for me. That seems like a "fair market price" for 8 years of a SS, but I'm not sure it is for a 1 yr SS and 7 yr 3B/LF/2Bman. I'd understand if that was turned down, and would be lukewarm on saying it was a mistake not to accept. The trading him issue seems the most problematic of deciding if a mistake was made, or not. The no-trade aspect made that almost impossible to assign blame.

. That was a small sample size. He had a .918 OPS over 573 PAs in 2022. That is 6th best in all the minors among batters with 550+ PAs. Abreu might end up being better. He finished 2nd in all minor leagues in BBs and is a decent baserunner (31 SB/ 3 CS). I'm not predicting greatness from either of these two, but they both have put up some good numbers in AA or higher. Want a bigger sample size? Minor League OPS Ranking from 2021-2022 (900+ PAs) 9. Valdez .894 (A+, AA and AAA) 31. Abreu .844 (A+ and AA)

Yes, that was my point. EValdez and Segura both force Story to play SS. (I even think adding Iggy would make Iggy at 2B and Story at SS a better choice.)

I'm glad you finally admitted you deny the history that got us to this point. Thanks.

What was the specific detailed mistake made with Bogey? Okay, the lowball offer is one we can agree on, but what was the lowest demand BorA$$ ever made that Bloom should have accepted? Then, even if it seems like it would have been a bargain or a "fair market" contract at any point on the timeline, how can we be sure it was a mistake not to take it, until we see what Bogey does the next 6 or 8-11 years. Or, was the mistake to not realize the demand was too high, and we should have traded him, despite the no trade clause you kept bringing up at this last deadline? Do we know the specific offer not taken that was the big mistake? I'm not trying to be flippant, here. I genuinely want to know, myself, and am fully prepared to give a negative opinion on the choice Bloom made to turn it down, once I know what it was. I'm not trying to compare Bogey to ERod, but many ehre wanted us to bring him back. He was a proven winner in market not easy to thrive in. Although he was not technically "homegrown," we was a prospect when we acquired him, and we let him walk. Why is his name not mentioned anymore? He signed for what seemed like a "fair market" amount. JH could have afforded that? Did Bloom talk JH out of it? If yes, was that another Bloom mistake? We know damn well why it's not brought up; it doesn't fit into the neat narrative of the bumbling, stumbling Bloom in "over his head."

You can squish the turd in your fingers all you want, too, but it doesn't change the facts or the reality that this downturn was long in the making.

How long did it take us to get from Betts, Bogey & Devers to come close to a list of 3 promising homegrown players again, like Bello, Casas, Mayer and maybe Bleis as the 4th? I'm thinking 5 years. It's no coincidence or malfeasance on the part of the current GM for this fact. What I find surprising is that Bello and Casas are DD guys, and so the 5 year drought can be blamed mostly on him, coming out of the drought is partially his success, too. One other major reason the farm turn-around has been slow in the making, has been Bloom's propensity for drafting HS players not college ones. 2020 1. Yorke 2. Jordan 2021 1. Mayer 2022 1. Romero 2. Coffey 3. Anthony (got a higher signing bonus than Romero & Coffey) The only college guy he drafted 1-2 was Jud Fabian.

Those guys should have been extended under DD. I'm not sure why you never mention that. Bogey would likely have signed a $25M x 6, 7 or 8 year deal without an opt-out had DD offered it. As for the Sox not being better off. I expected them not to be once 2019 showed the writing on the wall that many of us saw coming. So it's not about me trying to say we are better off. It's about this need to assign blame on just one guy or even just on Bloom & JH. We got to where we are today through a long process that can not easily be reversed and "righted." Again, I'm not complaining about where we are, because I thought the 2016-2018 window of winning was worth this sacrifice. I don't even want to blame DD. I like what he did, but that doesn't mean I just blame the consequences on the guy who took over an incredibly difficult circumstance. I find it very hard to fathom how anyone could really have expected continued winning and better playoff results under the conditions we were in post 2019: 1) Massive tightening of budget in 2020 that necessitated trading Betts with Half-Price attached and not replacing Porcello and the slots vacated the winter earlier by Kimbrel and Kelly. 2) Having a farm that produce nothing but Houck from mid 2017 to the end of 2022 (5 years). You speak of the great homegrown talent we squanders from 2018, but seem to gloss over the fact that we added none, since them. 3) Making rebuilding the farm a top priority to the point where nearly every trade we made involved adding prospects, and the only trade since the 2018 deadline that involved trading away a top prospect was Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber. Seriously, Bloom did not talk JH into those 3 major factors. They were conditions of his employment and hiring. Blaming Bloom of these points seems misguided. Fine, I'm with you on blaming him for not resetting, this summer, for the Renfroe trade and a few mid level signings like Richards, Perez I, Perez II and Paxton. I'm fine with the b elief he may have bungled the Bogey situation, but I'm still not sure he was worth signing at what BorA$$ insisted on, since we are not really sure what that ever was, but I'm ready to blame him for his role, if in 8 yrs we see the results. (I also would blame DD for not extending him longer or for not finding away to avoid the opt-out.) I put more blame on JH for losing Betts than on DD or Bloom. Let's see what happens to Devers, and I'm sure JH, Bloom and maybe even DD will see blame hurled at them, if he bolts or is traded. I guess I just take issue with your statement: "Look at where Bloom has got the Red Sox today,." IMO, it was a team effort that goes back a long ways but also includes mistakes made by Bloom and JH.

Vaz and Barnes were 28 in 2018- both turned 29 during the 2019 season. Maybe we disagree what "young" means. I also remember me getting a lot of grief for supporting the Barnes extension. Nobody is talking ab out that one or the letting go of ERod. It doesn't fit the prevailing narrative about us not extending young homegrown players (Barnes) or keeping our proven good players (ERod.) The Whitlock extension is mentioned quite often as was the Bogey extension that added one year of team control before the opt out kicked in. It would have been great to extend Betts, Bogey, Devers and even it it meant we also missed on a few like ERod, JBJ, Barnes, and maybe Vaz & Beni. Ideally, it should have been done prior to 2018, or right afterwards, but it seems like 2019 was when JH started turning the screws on the budget.

I could see us not adding any middle IF'ers and replacing Dalbec on the 26 with EValdez. 1. With Turner, we don't need Dalbec on the 26. He has options left and can play 3B, too, so maybe we keep him on the 40 but in AAA. 2. E Valdez bats lefty, so an Arroyo-V aldez platoon at 2B could become a reality, with Story at SS. (Arroyo's career splits do not really demand a platoon, however: .696 v R .725 v L (Sure, one would hope EValdez could beat .696, but his worse D might cancel that out.)

Then, let's get it done- YESTERDAY!

I don't think MIA gives up Rojas for just Duran, despite BTV saying they would. I'm not high on Murphy or Dalbec. I'd have to think long and hard about the Duran-Murphy package, but it's a close call. Duran and Dalbec, I'd do 100 out of a 100 times. I like defensive SS more than most. That's my short answer.