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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    My guess is the Dodgers polled some of their players, before making this choice. Maybe any team thinking of adding him to their roster would do the same. Ant GM knows adding him would create a big distraction and some intense criticism from many fans, the media and opposing teams' fans. They better think their team can handle it or feel desperate enough to "try anything" to get significantly better "on paper." I doubt the Sox feel they are in a position to "handle" the storm on this one- beyond the ethics and moral aspects of the choice. To me, it's not as easy a choice as it may be for others. I believe people who are contrite and genuinely trying to better themselves deserve a second chance and a path to forgiveness, but this is a real tough one. It's hard to forgive and move on from the things he did- not just to one person, apparently.
  2. moonslav59
    I seriously doubt we trade Casas, and I don't want to trade him, but the theory on acquiring a solid SP'er with 3+ years of control (not Pablo Lopez with 2) makes some sense. The downgrade from Casas to Turner/Dalbec and maybe eventually Jordan/Kavadas might be less than the upgrade at SP'er. In theory, if you gain more at the other position than you lose at 1B, it's worth consideration. Years of team control and contractual considerations also play into the equation, as well as how highly we value Casas vs how highly the other GM values him. In this case, it's not just as simple as valuing 1B vs SP'er. If Turner plays 1B, who DHs? If Yoshida moves to DH (maybe a good thing), we'd need an OF'er or two...most likely a RF'er. It's never a simple balance.
  3. moonslav59
    Details on the Turner deal... $8.3M year one with $1M incentives that max out at 560 PAs. Year two: $13.4M player option or $6.7M buyout by club The buyout makes it, essentially a $15M/1 year deal or $21.7M/2 deal. AAV $10.85M
  4. moonslav59
    R.I.P. Bill Campbell
  5. moonslav59
    Maybe build a big lobster trap and...
  6. moonslav59
    $720K is "free." I'm not saying I want him on my team, but someone will, and everyone deserves forgiveness, if they are truly sorry for what the did and are honestly seeking to change. Just my opinion. I'm not sure if he deserving of forgiveness.
  7. moonslav59
    Only $720K against the tax line.
  8. moonslav59
    I think we need a SS more than a RP'er. I certainly prefer M Rojas over Wendle. I'd rather get a solid SP'er than a RP'er.
  9. moonslav59
    Kelly, German, Mata, Walter or even Taylor may beat Crawford for that last slot.
  10. moonslav59
    Not much different than my dislike for DHern and others for Brasier. All 3 might be gone by the time we add Kluber and a SS. We may just be haggling over the order in which all 3 will be DFA'd.
  11. moonslav59
    Too much importance is being placed on roster slots 39 and 40.
  12. moonslav59
    I get that, but I wanted to show that some numbers including 2022 don't show much difference, either.
  13. moonslav59
    I'm doubting Dalbec even gets 100 PAs in 2022, if he's not traded, soon. Turner and Casas should take all his PAs. My bounce-backs: 1. Kike 2. Story 3. Dugo 4. Devers is going to bust out in '23 I could see McGuire and Casas having big years, but would not call them "bounce backs." Turner and Yoshida are very important. Pitching? Our whole rotation can be bounce back. Who will? I'm going with Sale and Whitlock. Barnes will bounce back- not to first half 2021 levels, but to the point of being a solid set up guy like most of his career. Houck has potential for a big bounce.
  14. moonslav59
    But again, at what expense? Who do we not sign, so we could plan on Nate's decline? Bloom already got us Wacha and Hill (3.3 fWAR combined) for $12M. the problem was he should have done better with that $12M? Okay, we can beat the JBJ deal to death and add someone with his money added (over Renfroe) but that's not replacing the loss Nate gave us, alone. I don't think expecting a massive Kike decline was reasonable- JD and Dalbec, yes. It's one thing to expect it, but it's another to plan for it. One of Bloom's biggest criticisms is that he's signing lower lever guys- I call it quantity over quality, but if you look at what we are saying now, is that he should have spread the Story and JBJ money over 6 slots: 2B, SP, Closer, RP, 1B, RF. I think Bloom tried to fill the slots he felt could not be covered by in-system solutions, and it bit him in the ass, along with too many vets declining, all at once. His non moves and moves were budget and prospect-protecting directed.
  15. moonslav59
    Still, look at all the returning vet drop-offs compared to Bloom moves. The ERod replacement was hard to match, but he chose right not to bring him back. The Renfroe>JBJ move was horrible. The rest were good, great or meh. I did not list Schwarber. I guess I could have put: 1.2 Schwarber> 1.5 McGuire or -0.2 Pham. That would not change the net change much. To me, the vet decline was so clearly the biggest reason for the decline: -4.7 Nate -3.4 Kike -1.8 JD -1.5 Houck -1.2 Barnes -1.0 Taylor -0.9 Plawecki -0.8 Arroyo -0.7 Pivetta -0.6 Dalbec (seemed like more) vs -2.4 ERod> Hill (nobody would take ERod over Hill in 2022), so I don't count this as a mistake. -2.3 Renfroe> JBJ -0.3 Ottavino> Strahm The rest were plusses: 1.3 Story>Iggy & Marwin 1.1 Ref> Santana 0.9 Wacha> Perez 0.7 Schreiber> Richards
  16. moonslav59
    I'm just saying my hopes are greater for Paxton than the rest combined. Since my hopes are so low on the others, it's not really praising Paxton.
  17. moonslav59
    No, actually providing several sample sizes to counter notin's one chosen timeframe.
  18. moonslav59
    OK, Bogey and Devers increased their 2022 fWAR over 2021, but... 2021>2022 fWAR returning Vets 3.9> 0.5 Kike 2.8> 1.0 JD 2.0> 1.2 Dugo 1.0> 0.2 Arroyo 0.5> -0.1 Dalbec 0.5> -0.4 Plawecki Pitching 5.7>1.0 Eovaldi 2.2>0.7 Houck 2.2>1.5 Pivetta 1.6>1.4 Whitlock 1.3>0.1 Barnes 1.0> 0.0 Taylor 0.8> 0.2 Sale _______________________________________________ To me, the players above this line were way more responsible for the decline in 2022 than below this line, and the biggest drop below the line was ERod to Hill, yes slightly bigger than Renfroe to JBJ decline in RF. I'm glad we didn't bring ERod back! Yes, Bloom mistakes... 2.0 Renfroe> -0.3 JBJ Other changes at various levels of gains or losses: 0.8 Iggy& -0.3 Marwin> 2.4 Story -0.2 Santana> 1.3 Refsnyder 0.5 Plawecki> 1.3 McGuire 3.9 ERod> 1.5 Hill 0.6 Perez> 1.5 Wacha 1.0 Richards> 1.7 Schreiber 0.6 Ottavino> 0.3 Strahm
  19. moonslav59
    I still have more hope for Dalbec than Duran. The guy hit over .800 in his first 550 MLB PAs. Duran might have done that for a 10 PA stretch...maybe! Seabold deserves another year in AAA with a chance to be called up again, if he's doing well. Paxton is a good pitcher at that price. He's worth risking a roster slot on, especially when he can go on the 60 day IL after opening day, if needed and not take up a roster slot. He's got more hope than any of these guys plus Brasier combined.
  20. moonslav59
    Ort goes, next. The order matters little, but Ort is better.
  21. moonslav59
    2021-2022 Old School .301 38 152 Bogey (1234 PAs) .246 40 141 Story (991 PAs) fWAR 10.4 Bogey (22.4 '18-22) 5.1 Story (18.2 '18-22) bWAR 10.7 Bogey (23.4 '18-22) 6.7 Story (22.4 '18-22)
  22. moonslav59
    Maybe to justify why we signed Story before 2022 -at a fraction of what Bogey got, and likely less than what Bogey'd have accepted last spring?
  23. moonslav59
    His moves were a net positive, even with the JBJ trade weighing it down heavily. His non-moves, in hindsight, should have been to foresee the decline of key vets and trade them away before they declined, even fan faves like Bogey, JD, Nate and guys looking pretty promising after their finishes in 2021: Dalbec, Kike, Robles... Those were worse than not adding a closer, IMO. The returning vets let the team down by more than the changes Bloom made. Do you differ with me on that? Plus: Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Schreiber, Refsnyder Meh: Story Negative: JBJ, Deikman, Robles
  24. moonslav59
    Yes. He even pitched in the ALDS. The 5 IP in Sept '21 were not that bad, so one does wonder if he was hurt. Here is Barnes' 2021 season cherry-picked sample sizes: 2.25 ERA/.477 OPS Against in 44 IP 20.77 ERA/ 1.510 OPS Against 4.1 IP Aug 7- 24th 2.84 ERA/ .739 OPS Against last 6.1 IP of 2021 One could argue, he really just had a bad 4 IP stretch in 2021, and just that tiny sample size poisoned his whole persona.
  25. moonslav59
    Maybe due to poor pitching in 10 IP to close out the season, which many felt was injury-related.
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