moonslav59

No, there is not. I know many of the areas I projected gains are question marks and even big question marks. That doesn't change the fact that most positions do look better, on paper, even if it's speculative. The point was not meant to force anyone into thinking we will be any better. I was curious, where anyone specifically disagreed with my projections- position b y position, but nobody is forced to answer that. We can choose to be optimistic about projected improvements or focus on the speculative nature of wondering about 2023. Just how good will Yoshida be? Is Turner over the hill, or was his nice finish to 2022 a sign he's still got it? Just how many innings will Kluber, Sale and Paxton throw? All huge questions. How well will Bello's sophomore season go? Can Whitlock excel as a starter over a full season? Can Story and Kike bounce back? Who plays 2B and SS? Can McGuire and Wong do well enough to not make our catc hing position a loss? Can the improved pen that many felt was the key to our losing so much in 2022 help turn so many losses into wins in 2023? Yes, soooooo many questions. (We are not alone in having many Qs.)

Not to tho those the guilty hurt or any future ones they may harm.

Another MLBTR article about how the Marlins are looking to trade a SP'er from Lopez, Luzardo, Rogers, Garrett or Cabrera. I would not trade Rafaela for Cabrera, but I might package him with a second tier prospect for Rogers, Luzardo or Garrett.

The same way it mattered that pitchers preferred to pitch to Maldy over Vaz, they MIGHT prefer McGuire over the 2023 Vaz. They MIGHT end up doing better. It's a worthy point to bring up in the context of comparing 2022 to what MIGHT be expected in 2023. Okay, I overstated the "back-up" tag on Vaz. He was never the back-up here, except for Sale and Porcello. Saying he was did not help the point I was trying to make. He will not be a back up on the Twins. We MIGHT end up doing better with McGuire and Wong than Vaz and Plawecki. Vaz was a good hitting catcher, while Plawecki sucked on O but seemed to do well with the staff. Maybe McGuire and Wong can do well with the staff and hit b etter than they have, so far in their rather short careers.

I made a simple point and admitted I pushed the envelope by pointing out he ended the season as a back-up. Who made this into a big deal?

Very true. Let's see how he does with their staff. BTW, I would not have mined us signing him back, but just not at that money. If we did have him on our 2023 roster, I would not be so sure I'd want him starting more games than McGuire, but only because I'm not sure how well McGuire handles a staff. He started out poorly, last summer.

Can you read? I admitted I pushed it with that statement. I know full well he was our starting catcher every year since 2016. Try taking a reading comprehension course online. It might help. Yes, my statement had nothing to do with him being the starting catcher for the Sox, but it did have something to do with my point that he ended the season as a back-up. It's two separate issues, but I know you have difficulties handling two thoughts at the same time.

Or course it is. It is also not the only factor in determining the defensive value of a catcher. There is also framing, blocking bad pitchers and arm strength and accuracy. I do find it rather telling that the top 7 pitchers by IP on the Sox since 2014 all did better with someone not named Vaz with 6 of the 7 by a wide margin. People can call it luck, but the sample sizes are large enough to convince me he has issues in this area. I'm hopeful the gains we can make in this area can outweigh the loss of his bat and other plusses he brought to the team and clubhouse.

Vaz was a pretty good hitting catcher, compared to most others. I have never said he was a net negative or recommended he be forced to start less games. I am merely pointing out one fault of his that is often ignored, until the same reason used to explain why Maldy started over Vaz is used to point out that maybe Vaz was not as good as some think he was, and maybe losing his bat may be overcome by better staff relationships with McGuire- just maybe. I've never come close to saying Vaz sucked or deserved to be the back-up, but I do think it's fair to point out his short-comings.

You aren't predicting more wins for the Sox and accused me of saying you did not predict more wins for the Sox. Talk about wash, rinse and repeat the strawmen over and over. "Who cares?" You cared enough about my starting catcher comment to respond, so I clarified. You also called McGuire a b ack-up, when he wasn't. Another strawman position, which you conveniently failed to respond to, as always, when exposed as being wrong and for building strawmen.

That's kinda been my point about Vaz, all along. (See my most recent post.) Vaz was hitting over .750 when he joined the Astros, while Maldy was under .590. I guess how you handle a staff counts for more than that. Many disagree.

The Final Line on Vaz and the pitchers who pitched the most for the Sox since 2014 (in order of most IP since 2014): Porcello 4.19 Leon (576 Innings) 4.96 Vaz (211) ERod 4.05 Leon (118) 4.18 Vaz (614) Price 2.96 Leon (204) 4.27 Vaz (360) Sale 2.51 AJ Pierzynski (226 some with CWS) 2.79 Leon (436) 4.08 Vaz (132) Nate 3.39 Plawecki (183) 4.64 Vaz (176) Buchholz 2.83 VMart (241) 3.01 Leon (155) 3.95 Salty (207) 4.44 Vaz (130) Pivetta (Note: some small sample sizes, here) 3.39 Plawecki (69) 4.55 Vaz (221) I don't think it's a fluke to see every SP'er did worse with Vaz. It's also noteworthy to see that while Vaz was our "starting catcher" every season since 2016, he wasn't the FT catcher for Sale, Porcello, Nate, Buch and sometimes with Price- basically all our best SP'ers, except ERod &N Pivetta.

Had Vaz been better, he'd have started. He had 2+ months to learn how to work with their staff. He had years and years to improve on how he worked with our staff, and consistently git worse results from our staff than Plawecki and Leon, and ... Yes, he was a starter, most of his career. I pushed the envelope by calling him a back-up. I admit that, but he did end the season as one, and to a guy hitting something like .580, which is like JBJish. McGuire might not be viewe das a starting catcher, but he was used as a starter more than any other catcher on his teams, the last 2 years. My guess is, he works well with the staff, since he did not hit very well- much like Maldonado.

Many predicted total failure in 2020, especially after we learned Sale was out for the season, and ERod, too. Vaz ended the season as a clear back-up. McGuire started more games than any other catcher on his teams, both in 2021 and in 2022. So, who is "full of it" is just opinion and speculation on your part. Where did I say you said we'd lose more games, Mr. Strawman Builder? You said we "could win more." I asked why you are not projecting we do win more, which is an entirely true statement on my behalf. That's not the same as saying you "said we'd lose more." Talk about making faulty assumptions. Talk about being "full of it."

Fair point, but he did end the season as a back-up to a severely offensively-challenged catcher. Also, to be fair, McGuire wasn't really a back up, either. He started more games as a catcher than any other Blue Jay in 2021 and any other White Sox in 2022, prior to the trade.

The bar is set high for conviction. Sometimes, there is ample "evidence," but the prosecution knows that it will be hard to get a conviction, especially on a rich guy with top lawyers. Hell, they couldn't even convict OJ.

Catchers are nothing, but backups. Newsflash: our catchers were "back-ups," last season. Literally. Vaz was the back-up to a catcher hitting under .600 on the Astros. 1B has lots of promise, but unproven. Yes, of course, but do you project a loss from the putrid level of 2022? Note" Turner is "proven." Can Story handle SS? I said SS was a major loss. Turner is closing in on turning 40, so what can you really expect from him? The same or better than the 2022 JD. Do you expect worse? Huge boost from Yoshida? BIG ? Likely, huge. Maybe just big. Almost certainly better than .690's. Bello another lots of promise, but also unproven. I suggested we decline in the rotation. This team could win more games, but still loaded with ??? Projected to be better at 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, CF, RF, DH and Pen (may be 6 of the 8 slots plus better depth). Projected to be near the same or slightly worse at Catcher. Projected to be worse at SP. Projected to be much worse at SS. Projected to have a much easier schedule- like all ALE teams, but not like all non-ALE teams. Projected better team and more wins. Yes, projects are just speculation, but are you speculating any of the positions I said should be pluses as minuses? If yes, which ones? I'm speculating significantly more wins. Tell me why you are not, and try to be specific.

You keep telling yourself this same thing over and over and have been wrong more than right. The fact is we lost a lot of bad players, semi-bad players and a three good players that did not have great or very productive 2022 season. I suspect you are thinking we are losing the 2018 or 2021 Nate, the 2018-2020 Bogey and the 2018, 2019 and 2021 JD. No, we are losing the 2022 Nate, JD and Bogey. That's not to say we don't need decent players to fill their slots, but in some cases, we do, and you need to count all the other players we lost and how easy it should be to improve on their numbers. The two major slots we have had trouble refilling, so far ar SS and SP. No doubt, we lost big at SS, but my point is maybe not as big as it appears to some, who are thinking we need a SS who hits 25-30 HRs and drives in 100-120 runs. That's a strawman SS. JD is an even bigger strawman, and Nate may be the biggest of the 3. It might actually be harder replacing the 2022 Wacha+ Hill than Nate. Why not go over my points, one-by-one, and tell me where my projections are wrong? You owe specifics. Catcher: I may be wrong, here, but replacing Vaz and Plawecki and their combined .694 OPS may not be as hard as you think. IMO, Vaz had issues with maximizing the abilities of the pitching staff, but I may be assuming McGuire is better. Plawecki was awful, last season. Call this a push. 1B: If you don't see this as a major gain, I'll lose the respect I've always had for you. The D was horrific, and the O produced 20 HRs and a .683 OPS at a position known for power and offense. Huge plus in 2023. 2B: I'm going with Story, here, for now, and I think the odds are he gets more PAs than 2022, and even if he doesn't produce more, just the more PAs makes this a plus. Potential for huge plus. SS: There is not getting around this: huge loss, but at the risk of sounding hypocritical and mentioning HRs and RBIs when I usually poo-poo others for focusing only on those two stats, Bogey had just 38 HRs and 152 RBI in his last 2 seasons, combinned (1234 PAs.) That specific production may not be so hard to come close to, with a key addition. We all know my feelings about Bogey's D, but that is another area to gain a chunk of positive, but in no way will we stop SS from becoming a NEGATIVE. 3B: I do not think I'm wearing pink glasses to suggest Devers, entering peak prime, improves on 2022's .856 OPS at 3B. Turner in reserve, could alone, help improve 3B. LF: All speculation, here, but improving on a .694 OPS and so-so D should be predicted with the addition of Yoshida and no Cordero, Pham and maybe less of Duran. PLUS CF: Same as 2B, more PAs from Kike, alone, should make CF a plus on O & D. A return to just his career norms on O would make this a huge plus, and if he comes close to 2021, a massive plus. (CF was at .671, last year.) RF: This is a tricky position to call. Dugo and Ref, perhaps on a mild platoon, should easily improve on the .661 RF OPS of 2022, but there will be a drop off on D, due to the loss of JBJ's D. However, we have to remember who else played D in RF, last season, and in more combined innings than JBJ: 525 JBJ 474 Others (163 Ref/124 Cordero/108 Arroyo/46 Duran/24 Ja Davis/8 Almonte) 432 Dugo DH: Turner should do better than the .763 DH OPS in 2023, but this could b e close: Slight Plus. I see 7 pluses, one loss and 1 even, but could agree on 6-1-2. Maybe a simpler view: loss of players by OPS and PAs .833 Bogey (631 PAs) .790 JD M (596) .759 Vaz (318) That's 1555 PAs of near .800 Offense. But, add up these lost or reduced PAs: .652 Dalbec (353) .578 JBJ (290) .697 Cordero (275) .672 Pham (235) .645 Duran (223) .574 Plawecki (175) .631 Hosmer (50) .322 Sanchez (44) .427 Downs (41) .697 Almonte (37) .596 Chang (26) .000 Shaw and Arauz (31) That's 1024 PAs Lost and 576 PAs reduced. That's the same as the big 3 lost above. Now, the lost pitching: ERA/FIP Pitcher IP The Decent to Good 3.32/4.14 Wacha (127) 4.27/3.92 Hill (124) 3.87/4.30 Nate (109) 3.83/3.72 Strahm (45) In total, we lost 69 GS'd, which amounts to about 2 SP'ers NOT 3, as it may appear. That is a substantial loss that will be replaced by: 20-30 GS Kluber 15-20 more GS from Bello 15-20 more GS from Whitlock I'll say this might be a net loss, but remember, we are also replacing or reducing these GS'd 14 Winckowski 5.89 ERA 12 Crawford 5.47 ERA 5 Seabold 11.29 3 Davis 5.47 I see a potential for a gain, but will agree to call the rotation a loss, as of now. The pen has to b e viewed as a major improvement, despite Whitlock moving to the rotation. Gains: Jansen Martin Joely Mills Maybe more from Schreiber, Houck, Barnes and Kelly/German/Mata/Walter... Losses or reduced innings: IP RP only and ERA as a RP'er only 62 Brasier 5.78 51 Sawamura 3.73 48 Davis 6.19 40 Danish 5.13 39 Whitlock 2.75 38 Dieman 4.23 28 Ort 6.35 25 Robles 5.84 16 Bazardo 2.76 16 Valdez 4.41 10 Familia 6.10 15 Others 10.00+ ERA These are the facts. Of course, not all good projections will happen, but just looking at the odds of slots improving or declining, it looks like a clear plus at way more positions than losses, and the ALE schedules will be easier in 2023- leading to the chance for more wins by all ALE teams. Tell me, specifically, where you think I projected incorrectly.

I certainly don't know if he "deserves" a second chance. It would depend on quite a few factors, in which I have no idea are present. Someone will give him a chance, deserving or not.

The 2022 bar set is pretty low. I'm feeling very optimistic we will win a significant amount more in 2023, and that's not even figuring the more balanced and easier schedule we'll have, next season. I'm happy with our catchers, but we may still add, there. 1B should be way better. Middle IF is looking like a big decline, but I think we will add a bridge SS who plays plus D. I'm expecting Devers to have a career year at 3B. I like Turner to beat JD's 2022 numbers at DH. Yoshida should give a huge boost to our OF O, and no JBJ and Cordero and hopefully less from Duran and more from Kike will see a jump up for our OF, as a whole. The pen should be way better. Bello & Whitlock in the rotation may gives it a big boost. I like the Kluber addition, but had hoped for better. It looks like Sale or Paxton will have to impress, and maybe Pivetta keeps being one of MLB's best 5th starters, another season. Uncle Uppers is pretty optimistic, after the Devers extension.

It really exposes how some people can and never will be happy, no matter what. The coulda-shoulda rants are absurd, at times, and without context most other times.

It's not happening. A trade with the Marlins may very well happen, but most likely for Rojas or Wendle. As much as I dislike Duran's chances, giving up all his years for one of Rojas may be an overpay. I doubt they'd take Seabold and Dalbec for him. I'd do that, and add Ort or Brasier, if they want one.

Unlike most teams, the Marlins have an abundance of young starting pitchers with 2-6 years of team control, but they lack great everyday players. We seem to be the opposite, so I can see why the fit looks good, on paper. For a while, I really wanted Lopez, but the 2 years vs 4, 5 or 6 for their other starters makes me shy away from giving up 5-6 years of a really good prospect for him. I've made dozens of trade suggestions on BTV, involving the Marlins. Many include their SS, M Rojas, who has one year of control. Others involve us taking on RF'er A Garcia's bloated contract, so we can get a SP'er without giving up Casas, Mayer, Bello or Bleis- hopefully not even Rafaela, but they would want something highly regarded. Forget about Alcantara: he'd take Mayer and Casas plus more. Here are the BTVs: 38.7 Lopez (2 yrs) 36.5 Rogers (4 yrs) not a sure bet 28.0 Luzardo (4 yrs) the guy I usually suggest we trade for 19.3 Garrett (6 yrs) love the team control years 14.9 Cabrera (6 yrs) Others possibly included: 7.5 Berti (3 yrs) Utility w high OBP in past 4.9 M Rojas SS (1yr) Perfect bridge to Mayer 3.1 Wendle 2B/3B (1 yr) I don't see the fit others see. 1.8 Stallings C (2 yrs) We tried to get him, last winter) -26.0 A Garcia LF/RF ($41M/4 yrs) -0.7 Bleier LHRP (2 yrs) As you can see, with AGarcia included, we could maybe get Luzardo and Rojas for someone like Verdugo or Duran + Murphy- on paper. .

McGuire's situation is way different than Bauer's. Not even close.

Agreed, and that is why I said... I doubt the Sox feel they are in a position to "handle" the storm on this one- beyond the ethics and moral aspects of the choice. I'd certainly ask the players before considering adding him.