moonslav59

I'd be happy, if we never bet on a FA ace. Our history shows we do better trading for aces.

IMO, it was clear as day last year's team was never going to be the Phillies, even if these guys came back from the IL and did well. The team was snake-bitten from the start. That's just my perception. No, I don't see it as "shoulda known." I know why they did what they had to do, and I know they have different things to care about than I do. IMO, we should have sacrificed the meager chances we had at doing something special in 2022 for a better outlook in 2023 and beyond. I'm not beating my chest and saying "I told you so," because there is no right and wrong answer. They made a choice I understand. I cared more about the future than our measly chances in '22. That's me. A few others here seemed to agree. We can say we'd be better off, now, had we done what we wanted, but that's not saying mistakes were made by not doing what we wanted. I wish they did, but they didn't. I move on.

Exactly. It's a business and trying to keep the most fans happy and excited about the team is a big part of their decisions. Again, I know why they did what they did. They do what they have to do, and what they think is best for the business of making money- which is largely linked to fan happiness and the perception of having a chance at glory in the given moment. There is a constant battle of the here and now vs extended future going on with every team to varying degrees. We can talk about "windows" and "rebuilds" all day, and some teams have to avoid even the perception of "rebuilding," even if it is obvious that is the mode they are most in.

That pretty much sums up your circular rants very well.

I know the odds of either pitching 100 IP, let alone 150 may not be great but 2 x 25% is better than 1 x 25%. We also could have Sale + Paxton = 0 IP but have great seasons from Bello, Whitlock, Houck and Kluber with steady Pivetta doing better than 90% of other teams' 5th starters. That's what I meant about not needing all or even 2/3rds of the 18 listed things to go right and still significantly improve on 2022.

You constantly equate disagreeing with not understanding. Like if we just understood the issue fully, we'd have to see your side is right.

I totally understand their thinking and never said they were wrong. I complain a bout things, too- usually different things from most others. Some complained just trading Vaz away was too much and signaled to the clubhouse we were giving up, when in reality, McGuire ended up doing better than Vaz and Pham did better than Cordero/Duran. Hosmer might have improved on Dalbec/Cordero but he hardly played. My point was that I felt the fear of upsetting too many fans, for all the reasons you gave and more, was a major factor in their decision not to at least trade JD. I get it. Really, I do. I also remember we were not far from the last WC slot, but I also remember there were several teams between us and the playoffs, and in my opinion, which is on the opposite side of the "playoffs are a crapshoot" spectrum than you and others- the 2022 Red Sox had close to zero chance at winning a ring by mid July. Okay, bring up the Phillies, who by the way won 5 in a row to end July and were 8 games over .500 on August 1st. They had 5 teams ahead of them: we had 8 and were tied with CWS at .500, so basically 9 teams. The team made the choice for various reasons combined. I wish they had made another choice, and it's not in hindsight. Several of us felt this way, and I am pretty certain, we were a small minority. I wish we had better comp picks and more bonus money to spend, this next draft. I wish we'd have better prospects by getting something back for players we lost for nothing. I fully understand there would have been many upset fans, especially those who paid big money for tickets to games after the deadline and not seeing Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha, Hill and Strahm. As it turned out, the team ended up being marginally better on paper after the deadline, due to the trades, but fans were still pissed, so management didn't even get what they wanted to get, anyway.

Look for another Ottavino type deal. Maybe trade Hicks with a prospect for cash.

There is hope he can stay healthy. Better hope no stiff wind blows when Rodon is pitching.

Yes, to start the year, I have Barnes at #5. That is also assuming Houck is not starting.

Some of the updsides on the what ifs, this season are pretty damn high.

MLBTR reports... After three injury-riddled seasons, Chris Sale told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham) that he is “very, very excited” about being healthy and heading for his first normal Spring Training since 2019. Between a Tommy John surgery, a fractured rib, and fractures to his finger and wrist, Sale has pitched only 48 1/3 Major League innings since the start of the 2020 season, which was also the first season of a five-year, $145MM contract extension Sale had signed with the Red Sox the year prior. Given the lack of return on this extension, Sale feels “I owe my teammates the starting pitcher they thought they were going to get. I owe the front office the starting pitcher they paid for. I owe the fans performances they’re paying to come and see.” Looking for a silver lining to his injury woes, Sale noted “that’s three years of [pitching] that’s not on my arm” as he enters his age-34 season. “That’s not going on the odometer. I’ve kept myself in really good physical shape. My arm’s feeling good. I don’t have any hesitation going forward with pitching.”

I guess they all think most of these 18 things will not go right for the Sox.

Even as the 3rd or 4th RP'er, they could manage his workload better.

Rodon would not be the guy I bet on. Not even close.

I don't have much faith in Barnes for 2023, but I certainly see him as a good possibility for filling a key role. We already have Jansen, Martin, Houck and Schreiber, so he may not be needed as a top 4 RP'er, but he could very well become our #2 or 3.

RP'ers often come into innings with 1-2 outs. That, alone skews their ERA numbers. Starters often leave the game with men on base and get charged runs or not based on how well the next guy does. All stats are part of the soup. ERA is just one, but it does have 3 letters. (BTW, WHIP has 4.)

Simon Hampton reports that Story feels he will play in 2023... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/trevor-story-confident-hell-play-in-2023.html

I think, had they extended Bogey, Bogey would be the SS in 2023 and Story at 2B. After 2023, things may have changed.

If you figure 65 IP per season is the norm for closers and set-up me, 11 IP per month is the average. Barnes in 2022: 12.1 IP in AUG 2.92 ERA 10.1 IP in SEP 0.00 ERA All of his last 15 appearances were in the 8th inning or later: 14.1 IP 1.26 ERA, 3.18 FIP, .635 OPS Against and maybe an unlucky .302 BAbip. No blown saves 5 saves 4 Holds The only game he let up runs in, he entered with the Sox down 8-5. Game logs 1. entered in 9th down 6-5 (OER) 2. entered 8th up 9-8 (0ER & Hold) 3. entered down 8-5 (2 ER) 4. 9th up 6-5 (0 save) 5. 9th up 5-3 (0 Hold) 6. 8th down 3-2 (0 ER) 7. 9th up 1-0 (0 Save) 8. 9th down 7-6 (0ER) 9. 9th up 13-3 (0ER) LOW LEVERAGE 10. 8th up 5-3 (0 ER Hold) 11. 9th down 5-4 (0 ER) 12. 9th up 13-9 (0ER) 13. 9th up 3-1 (0 Save) 14. 9th up 4-3 (0 Save) 15. 9th up 6-3 (0 Save) Last 23 IP of 2022, he had a .590 OPS Against. Season: .681 Late & Close .664 High Leverage (64 PAs) ,663 Medium (31) .689 Low (81) I gotta throw in one more number: 8.49 ERA w Vaz 3.09 w Plawecki 2.25 w Wong 2.19 w McGuire

It's not just Bogey's power being down, his RBI production fell sharply in '21 and '22. (152 RBI in '21-'22 combined.) That's not all that hard to come close to replacing, and his D was not all that great. I agree, we will be worse on O at SS and 2B, but the bar is not all that high to approach: .724 OPS at 2B (97 RBI) .815 OPS at SS (79 RBI) I disagree that our O at catcher is a sure decline. Our catching position had a .694 OPS in 2022, and that was helped a bit by McGuire's .834 OPS as a catcher.) The bottom of the rotation is not "garbage" and looks to be as good or better than 2022, especially in depth. To say the pen is "probably better" is a gross understatement. Yes, up the middle matters, but it's not the only thing. Our defense should be better at C, SS and maybe CF. Our O could be better at CF and equal at Catcher.

I think we will be a better team in 2023 than 2022. I think the schedule changes would give us more wins, even if we were equal to last year's team, so I'm thinking 82-85 wins is an odds on possibility. I think we will have a decent chance at winning 86-89 wins, which is likely enough to secure a WC slot. Winning 90 or more would take a lot going right, and to me, is not likely. I see a lot of possibilities for things going right, and the sheer number of them gives me hope, because we don't need all or even 90% of these things to go right to have a chance at winning 86-87 games or more in 2023. Last season, those were the win totals of the worst playoff teams in the AL and NL. Think about it, how many of these possibilities do we need to happen to win 87+ games? How many to win 90+? Sale starts 20+ games and looks decent. Paxton starts 18+ games and looks decent. Pivetts remains a top 5 fifth starter and gives us 180+ IP Whitlock thrives as a SP'er and gives us a good 28+ GS'd. Kluber gives us 24+ good GS'd. Bello has a decent sophomore year with 24+ GS'd. One or two out of Mata, Walter, Murphy, Crawford or Winckowski fill in the cracks from some of the above happenings not going right. Jansen, Martin, Houck, Schreiber and Barnes provide enough solid pen IP to greatly improve on our 2022 numbers. Rodriguez, Mills, Taylor, Braiser, Kelly, German and converted SP'er provide pen depth better than the 2022 pen did. Devers improves as he enters peak prime- offense and defense. Verdugo's improved conditioning over the winter brings him back to earlier career numbers. Yoshida and Turner's bats come close to replacing the 2022 offensive production lost by the departing Bogey & JD. Casas greatly improves the defense and offense from the 2022 1B production. McGuire and Wong keeps us about equal to what Vaz-Plaw gave us. Maybe better D outweighs worse O. More games and better PAs by Kike and improved D at SS can help lessen other losses. Duval and more play from Refsnyder improves on what we got from JBJ, Cordero, Pham and Duran in '22. Arroyo and whoever we add, this winter at middle IF can help keep the losses of Bogey and Story to more of a minimum. Farm depth of everyday players like EValdez, Alfaro, Tapia, Dalbec, Duran, Hamilton, Koss, Rafaela and maybe even Mayer, late in the season can improve upon what we got in 2022. I listed 18 things, here with some being several players lumped together. I'm thinking we might need 9-10 to go right with 4-5 coming close to be better in '23. Maybe 11-12 need to go right to make the playoffs and 12-14 to get close to 90 wins. We could also look at it from the perspective of how many of these 18 can go grossly wrong to still be able to overcome and make the playoffs.

The thing is, not all "passionate fans" are focused on just the here and now. My term "crybaby" was directed towards the many fans that want us to win right now and aren't that interested in improving comp pick positioning in the next draft. I could still choose a better word for them and am open to suggestions. It's not like I don't want us to win now. I was okay with the DD plan and was willing to sacrifice the longer term for an exceptional winning window that I had hoped and expected would last more than just 3 years, and I think there are times when that sort of plan is called for or more conducive to "going for it" - maybe not to the extent DD did, but maybe a happy medium somewhere in between. I'm probably in the minority for caring more about the future than 2023. I'm not thinking about a 5 year plan, starting now. To me, the 5 year plan started in 2019 or 2020, and I'm expecting a highly competitive team by 2024 or 2025, at the very latest. I had hoped, this winter could have gotten us there, but with the shocking prices the top FAs got, this winter, my hopes and expectations were tempered down a bit.

Agreed, and I did not mean "crybaby" as always being a bad thing. I've been known to "cry" about a few things, too. I do think the fear of "crybaby fans" kept us from having even a mini-fire sale, last summer that kept us from resetting, but more importantly hurt our comp pick positions in the next draft. All we had to do was trade JD for a single A prospects, and we'd be better off. We could have also traded Bogey, if he agreed to waive the no-trade clause, Nate, Wacha, Hill & Strahm for prospects or ML players. Look what we got for Diekman, Vaz and Groome. It's not a huge deal. We'd have likely stayed under the tax line, again this year, so that part is not all that bad, but sometimes complaining fans can keep a team from improving their longer term outlook out of fear of backlash from fans wanting more now, now and RIGHT NOW!

It's 3.88 since 2017 with an FIP of 3.35. How is this for keeping it real? Since 2017, among 114 RP'ers with 200 + IP, Barnes is... T20th in fWAR at 4.8 21st in RP IP at 313 15th in xFIP at 3.34 (Martin i #7 at 3.01 & Jansen is 17th at 3.36) A lot depends on a Barnes recovery from whatever was bothering him last in '21 and for some of '22, but if he can just give us his norm from 2017-2022, we'll have a solid #2-#3 RP'er being asked to be our #4 behind Jansen, Martin and Schreiber.