moonslav59

I never said he was heading down his path. I said they had very similar histories when both were 28-30 years old. Both show(ed) promise, but have/had recent injury issues. Paxton actually had 3 years in a row over 120 IP before joining the Yanks for the 2019 season, when he went 160 IP. You called him unreliable, back then. Rodon is at age 30, now. he has 310 IP over the last 2 years. Paxton had 296. Rodon only has 2 seasons over 120+ IP since 2018- Paxton had 3 in a row at age 30. That's all I'm saying. They had similar injury histories by age 29-30, and you called one injury prone and had little hope Paxton could stay healthy after age 30, but with Rodon, you have much higher expectations. Yes, there is merit to thinking 310 IP over the last 2 seasons is promising, but Paxton had very close to that at a similar time in their age progressions and injury histories. it's undeniable and far from "dumb" to compare the two.

Mix and match. We just need 5 at any given moment. I've always favored quality over quantity, but having so many promising SP'ers is nice, too. I just hope we don't have to "trial and error" it through 3-4 failures before we find the right 5. We can't afford too many losses, along the way. The vets (4): Sale, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton The experienced RP/SP'ers (4): Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, Winckowsi The up and comers (2-3): Bello, Walter (Murphy?) I have to think that we can have 5 out of 10, at any given moment doing okay to well.

Our OF defense looks to be worse than 2022 at all 3 slots. If we can get Kike back in CF, it looks a lot better, as Duvall is better at the corner than Yoshida and Verdugo- assuming he plays over one in the OF. I'm hopeful we will be better, defensively, at Catcher. 1B is vastly improved. 2B should be worse, as Story was great at 2B in 2022. SS may be better. 3B is likely the same. Overall, we look to be bottom 5 or 10 in MLB defense. Our pitching will have to be sharper.

How about a platoon? Also,... When Yoshida or Kike (assuming CF) need a rest, both can play. When Turner needs a rest, Yoshida to DH, and both can play. When Devers needs a rest, Turner to 3B, Yoshida to DH, and both can play. Maybe we can keep both playing enough to keep them sharp and happy. (This assumes a healthy Story at SS and a healthy and productive Arroyo at 2B- maybe too much to hope for.)

I'd add Wink to that list, but I fully agree. If we need to fill 2 slots with any 2 from Bello, Crawford, Mata and maybe even Walter, maybe we'll still be fine.

Yes, it will most likely come down to the rotation. The first issue is, of course, health. I feel pretty confident in 4-5 of our SP'ers, when healthy. Guys like Mata and Walter may surprise, if they can stay healthy, too. The skill levels of our SP'ers, assuming no major age or injury-related regressions is pretty well proven. However, one should expect age regression (Kluber & Sale) and/or some time needed to return to form after dealing with injuries or surgery(Sale, Whitlock, Houck). Sale turns 34 in a few days and hasn't put together a full season of greatness since 2018. He did have an ERA+ of 118 from 2019-2022, but only logged 196 IP over those 4 years. It's hard to know, if he can even post a 118 ERA+ over 170+ IP, this year. Kluber turns 37 in 3 weeks and has 2 Cy Youngs under his belt, along with 3 other top 9 finishes. His last great year was also 2018. He has posted a 91 ERA+ since then, but did log 164 IP, last year. He posted a 112 ERA+ in 2021 in 80 IP with the Yanks, but it's hard to expect that over 160+ IP in 2023. I'm hopeful, but maybe just being a homer on Corey. Whitlock turns 27 in June, which is often peak prime for many pitchers. He is coming off an injury and has not gone over 120 IP since 2018 (in the minors.) He's got some nasty stuff, and the big question seems to be how many innings can he give us, not his talent level. Houck also turns 27 in June. He's posted some eye-opening numbers over his first 3 seasons in the bigs, but like Whitlock, it's about IP. He has a 150 career ERA+. His biggest struggle seems to point him towards long relief- not the rotation: .504 OPSA first time facing an opp .647 OPSA second time 1.017 third time, but the sample size is only 30 PAs. Pivetta just turned 30, so is still in prime. He's been pretty steady for us at a 99 ERA+ and 31+ starts a year. He may be one of the league's best 5th starter, if we can fill the top 4 slots with guys better than him. He's had some long stretches of solid pitching within each season, with us. My hope is he can put together s 32 start stretch like those shorter ones. Bello turns 24 in May and showed some promise after a rough first start or two, last year. He may be one of our biggest wild cards, but I'm very optimistic about his abilities. Paxton is 34 and may be healthy by April. He had over 150 IP in both 2018 and 2019 with a 112 ERA+ over those 2 seasons. 23 IP over the last 3 seasons is the killer, but this guy may still have one good season left in him. 34 is not all that old. 7 SP'ers and only 5 needed. We may get by with 4 pitching well or even 3 pitching very well, as long as the others don't suck. having mata, Crawford, Winckowski and Walter as ML ready depth may also help. I feel pretty confident we can find the right 5 to lift us to 2nd or 3rd place, but certainly 4th place is a reasonable expectation.

I was on vacation and missed that. No mention on talk radio.

He's also 1-6 with a 5.63 ERA in 9 World Series starts. (15-5 3.04 in other PO games.)

I'm thinking Cora might go with... 1. L Yoshida LF 2. R Kike SS 3. L Devers 4. R Duvall CF 5. L Casas 1B 6. R Turner DH 7. L Verdugo RF 8. R Arroyo 2B 9. L McGuire C

On this site, it needs to be guarded, defended and nurtured.

Kike’s control ends, this year. We have Story and Arroyo, then Chang, Hamilton and ______. I say middle IF redundancy is needed.

Good to see some shared but guarded optimism.

That’s number one.

You missed the part where I said Rodon is where Paxton was 3-4 years ago, when you were calling Paxton injury prone, even as a Yankee!

Makes sense.

Whitlock is fun to watch. Maybe Kluber will be, too.

It’s all relative, man.

I thought 25 was Herculean.

The box score I see says 25 pitches/ 20 strikes.

He did have a 0.4 fWAR with the CWS, before the trade. Maybe I underestimated how bad Vaz can be over a full season. I’m usually accused of being too harsh on him.

I’m very hopeful McGuire works out well, but there is a lower floor for him than the aging Vaz, IMO. I’m not sure about how high his ceiling is, and I’m trying not to get too optimistic over his small sample size for the Sox in 2022. The big Q for me, is how he builds connections to our staff. I think the higher ups on the Sox believe he can help to better maximise our staff’s potential, but that remains to be seen.

I think only you and 700 think he was worth $16M x 3, not that this is a democracy.

Redemption Song

The hypothetical was if both were healthy, who is better to start the season. You response was off that mark by a mile.

It is not out of the realm of possibility both could be healthy in April. That wasn’t the point, anyway. The talk was about who was better. You mentioned Bello had a higher ceiling, which is a hypothetical exercise, in itself, I might add. It also speaks to potential high end performance skills. I merely added that I felt he was better now, too. I feel he has a better chance of helping the team in April, because he is better right now, assuming good health on both. If you don’t like the talk, fine, but your comment was off the mark. Back track and sidestep all you want, but hypothetical discussions like this go on all the time.