moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Guys like Vladamir Guerrero (not Jr) are not all that common. Maybe Devers can keep it up: maybe he will need to adjust. Vlad: 11.4 K% up to age 29 (8.8 BB%) 30% Pull rate 10.3 K% 30 and older (7.3 BB%) 27% Pull rate OPS+ (140 career) & fWAR 154 age 30 5.3 138 age 32 3.5 147 age 32 3.2 130 age 33 1.9 107 age 34 0.5 119 age 35 1.1 98 @ age 36 -0.6
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Lots of things need to go wrong to finish 5th, too. It's certainly reasonable to think 4th place. I like our chances at 3rd place and a chance a WC, but I also think it is "reasonable" to think otherwise.
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Crawford gave us a +0.3 fWAR over 2 years at $41M, but he also cost us having to trade AGon & Beckett. One can argue what their value was, post-trade, but I do think CC belongs on the top 6 or 7 list. We also paid the Dodgers $3.9M, year-by-year after the trade that should count against CC. Price is a tough one to figure. He gave us a 10.6fWAR over 4 years, but cost us over $125M, thanks to his opt out. (Not counting lux tax) He belongs in the top 6-7, too. If we hold losing AGon and Beckett over CC's head, then maybe Betts should be held over JP's head, somewhat. Renteria cost us about $30M for 1 year, but the total sunken cost was not enough to make my list. Maybe this is the right order: 1. Pablito 2. Castillo 3. Pedey 4. HRam 5. Crawford 6. Price 7. Sale (could move up) 8. Renteria ???
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Maybe your misguided mark, yes.
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So, about $65M and 1 fWAR, so far. That places him 3rd or 4th behind Pablito, Castillo and Pedey and maybe HRam for net negative value. Maybe... 1. Pablito ($95M and -1.4 fWAR) 2. Castillo ($72M and 0.9 fWAR- no lux tax affects) 3. Pedey ($110M and 10.9 fWAR) 4. HRam ($88M and 1.2 fWAR) 5. So far Sale ($~65M/3 and 1 fWAR.)
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I'm not saying Pedey's contract was good. He's on my albatross list, which pretty much argues it was a bad deal, right? $110M and 11 fWAR Pedey $72M and 1 fWAR Castillo
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Who is Sox Notes?
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I know what you said, but not swinging at "those pitches" would require a change in approach. It's fair to argue there might be other consequences to such a change. Every hitter would be better, if he never swung at pitches they swung and missed on or hit into outs. It is okay to discuss things beyond what you stated or meant.
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He gave us almost nothing and cost about $72M. It's not about reasons. It's about sunken costs. Pedey gave us a few years of value and cost us $110M. Hard to "hold it against him" for Machado being a dick. 3.9 bWAR 2014 2.6 bWAR 2015 5.4 bWAR 2016 2.6 bWAR 2017 Then went negative (-0.6 over 2018 to 2019) before not playing at all over the final 2 years of the contract. 14.5 over first 4 yrs (10.9 fWAR) -0.6 last 4 years. (-0.6 fWAR) The lux tax issue is a factor, and the Sox did pay the tax in 2015 ($1.8M), 2016 ($4.5M), 2018 ($9.4M) and 2019 ($9.4M). How much of that can and should be attributed to Pedey is debatable, but even if you count most of it, I'm not sure he passes Castillo's total cost vs value given to the team. Pablito cost us $95M and gave us a negative WAR. He has to be ahead of both Pedey and Castillo. Sale is still pending. He has cost us about $77M, so far and has given us +1 fWAR, so far.
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Castillo? Pablito cost more and gave us nothing. Sale is $145M and so far has given next to nothing.
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It's hard to say. Changing his approach might mean less hits on other pitches. He's "fooled" by some pitches, but if he layed off them, he might also lay off some pitches he used to hit- ones that did not break off so sharply out of the K zone. Let good hitters be, is my motto.
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True nuff.
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Whit has a better profile to be a good starter, but I, too hate messing with something that has worked. Having a one-two long relief punch from Whit & Houck would do wonders for the short RP'ers on the staff, as well as allowing Cora to yank SP'ers early, if needed. Had we kept them both firmly in their pen roles, all year, we'd still have a lot of choices as SP'ers: Sale, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton Bello, Crawford, Wink Mata, Walter, Murphy
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I know we should not get to gah-gah over ST'ing numbers, like maybe with Tapia, but Wink has been solid, all spring. 16 IP (4th on team) 1.13 ERA (#1 among pitchers with 9+ IP) 10 hits 4 BB 17 K (4.25 K:BB, only Crawford is slightly better) 0.88 WHIP .175 BA Against
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Would you move him up on the list? (I would not put him above Castillo.)
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Maybe he's offered back to us, and we say no, but I doubt it.
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Good to see a move towards "truth."
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There were times Papi was criticized for the same thing. Adrian Beltre hit some HRs on one knee.
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I agree. Don't mess with a successful approach, and to me, it is helpful to have a line-up with varying approaches. Nobody messed with Vladdy.
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This is basically his rehab. Someone else pointed out that maybe he is working on a third pitch, and not doing too well with it. I wish we'd just keep him in the pen 100%. Start Wink, instead. It should only be one or two starts.
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Carl Crawford would have been near the top of any historic Sox albatross list had we not dumped him on the Dodgers. We also lessened the Price hit by doing the same, and his opt out of 2020 helped, too. In terms of what we ended up paying, and one could argue we "paid" AGon to rid ourselves of CC, out top albatross list might be... 1. Sale extension (still pending) 2. Pablito 3. Castillo (lucky no luxury tax hits) 4. HRam 5. Pedroia (2014 extension) 6. Crawford 7. Renteria (ended up spending about $30M for one season)
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Trying to be light-hearted. We all agree with you.
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Maybe he goes unclaimed and is offered back to us.
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A question that has yet to be asked by any poster.
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Sandy Leon & Franchy Cordero released. Why can't we get quality guys like these two? ________________________________ Matt Strahm to start game 5 for Phillies. ________________________________ Two Rule 5 players returned to clubs (not the Sox.)
