moonslav59

Ok, 20th string was an exaggeration.

I totally agree, but many good and even great MLB pitchers started out shaky. Others, like Houck, never looked all that great in the minors, but burst onto the ML scene doing well from day one.

I'm thinking maybe one of the 2 could turn into a solid #5 SP'er, but maybe not in 2023. The odds of this happening may be under 50% but may be close to 50-50. More likely, one may become an okay to decent long man out of the pen. The odds of one filling this sort of role is probably better than 50-50.

He certainly is, as Red likes to call them, "suspect," but it was his first MLB season, so some slack may be called for. He looked pretty good in AAA (.653 OPSA with 62 Ks in 61 IP) This may be his "make or break" season.

Pretty telling- how we came so close with our 20th string pitching staff.

Agreed. Both Wink and Crawford will likely get chances to earn their stay. Their numbers were not great, last season, but pitchers often need at least a year or two to establish themselves and make a stand. Of course, many fail to find a foothold. I'm not overly optimistic about either one, but I do still think both have a decent chance to find a niche, and maybe the odds are better than 50% that one of them makes it. It's hard to assign a percent to any unproven pitcher, but I like the odds than one or two of our bottom SP'ers will make a mark in MLB. Maybe not this year, and I guess what one defines as "making a mark" is likely subjective. Let's say having a season over a 1.0 fWAR (like Nate in 2022) or 1.5 (like Pivetta and Wacha in 2022) is "making a mark," what are the odds each of these guys reach that level at some point in their careers. What percentage would you assign? Beyond Sale, Kluber, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck... As SP'ers only... 45-75% ??? Bello 35-65%??? Mata 30-60%??? Walter 25-55%??? Crawford 20-50%??? Winckowski 15-45%??? Murphy To far away to estimate: Perales Wikelman E R-C (Just an off-the-cuff guesstimate.)

He might be one of the top 5 fifth starters in MLB, but we have to keep him there to be so... LOL! As a #4 he might be top 15. As a number 3, he's likely a bottom 10-15. Some teams have pretty lousy rotations. He might be a #2 on some teams.

Wink has looked pretty good, but Crawford does seem to be a bit better.

Yes, I knew you were just talking about ST'ing. I was just adding a separate observation. I have often wondered, if it's a warm weather thing, too, but JUL is warmer than SEP. He seems to not like it cool or too hot. .535 APR .613 AUG .693 May .750 JUN .940 SEP .983 AUG Maybe it just takes him 4 months to find his stride.

But sucks in April and the first third or more of May. 2021: .558 to May 12th (108 PAs) /.867 afterwards in 345 PAs 2022: .453 to May 12th (91 PAs) / .721 afterwards in 262 PAs

Bobby Dee goes deep. Does make the 26?

Others not spending improves our odds of winning. Apparently, that is his bottom line.

Ah yes, Beni's one really good year.

It sure would be nice to see LF be a top 5 position for us. When is the last time we had a top 3 LF'er in WAR?

And Yoshida in away games, either.

I saw the word "like." "Like" another SS who no longer plays plus D? I missed nothing. I gave my opinion on not wanting a minus defensive SS replacing Bogey. I'd have been okay with Iggy over an oft-injured Mondesi, but I'm okay with Duvall in the line-up. I'd prefer Kike in CF, but maybe Mondesi can make that happen more than we expect.

Agreed, but it puzzles me as to why the major shift in perceived winning strategies? They went out of their way to improve the D, last winter by trading renfroe for JBJ and signing Story to play 2B.

Maybe we can put JRod on the 60 and add both. (Trade, IL or DFA one other.)

Iggy's D at SS is highly suspect, at this point in his career.

It was concerning, but remember, he was new to every pitcher and many of our best pitchers were out of action. Most PAs with McGuire: 186 Pivetta (.840 OPSA) 120 R Hill (.800) 110 Crawford (1.034) 67 Bello (.592) 67 Brasier (.902) 60 Schreiber (.980) 52 Barnes (.620) 46 Ort (.882) 45 Wink (.905) 41 Davis .839) 35 Seabold, 31 Danish, 30 Sawamura, 29 Bazardo, 26 Familia, ONLY 21 w Whitlock (1.000), 19 Kelly, 19 Strahm, 14 German 10 DHern. Total 1028 PAs (.874 OPSA) 574 (more than half) were with (our best) pitchers not named Pivetta 186, Nate 0, Hill 120, Wacha 0, Houck 0, Bello 67, Schreiber 60, Whitlock 21 and Strahm 19. Top PAs w Vaz: 456 Pivetta 262 Hill 215 Whitlock 202 Wacha 174 Houck With Plawecki 303 Nate 251 Wacha 149 Wink 124 Crawford 101 Hill

So, assuming the opening day 13 man staff does not include Paxton, Whitlock, Bello, Rodriguez and Mills, could it look like this? Kluber Sale Houck Pivetta Crawford/Winckowski Jansen Martin Schreiber Brasier Bleier Winckowski/Crawford Kelly Ort (Other options: Mata, Walter, Murphy or maybe Whitlock will be ready?) Could we start the year with 12 on the staff? This season's schedule does not give many early days off: 6 games Day Off 19 games Day Off 10 games Day Off We might be able to start with 12 and add Whitlock 3-5 days into the season or wait until the first 6 games in 7 days are over.

Our catchers had a .694 team OPS in 2022, which included an .834 OPS from McGuire in 100 out of the team's 617 PAs as catchers. That was 16% of the team's PAs at C. .735 Vaz (294 PAs) 48% .588 Plawecki (171) 28% .524 Wong (52) 8% I'm not sure this catcher group can beat .694, but maybe they can come close but do better defensively.

The soxprospects.com podcast had the opinion we'd be 3-4 slots higher had Bello pitched 10 less innings in 2022. (Note: other teams may have similar players like Bello.)

Most "starting catchers" only catch under 780-820 innings out of 1400+ per team. 2022 Most Innings as a Catcher 900+: 7 820-880: 8 (15 over 820) 680-779: 9 620-679: 7 (15 under 778) McGuire might only catch 55-65% of the innings for the Sox. I'm not sure how good he is with maximizing staff production vs Wong. (I think Alfaro is not known for defense.) Normally, one would think building a "rapport" with a few selected pitchers is easier and better, but with so many new pitchers and catchers on this team, and a few pitchers out for much of ST'ing, I'm not sure how much rapport has already occured. Maybe we need to let both catchers catch everyone, until we can see who seems to do click with each pitcher. To start the season with a L-R platoon might make sense. I also think each catcher should catch all pitchers every now and again, in case the "binky catcher" gets hurt. Maybe Cora has already worked out who will catch who, based on whatever he uses to determine this, but I think with so many unknowns, maybe maximizing the offensive output from our catchers, at least for a while, maybe not be a bad idea. Catcher career splits: Vs RHP .837 Wong (46 PAs) .798 in minors '22 (245 PAs) .731 McGuire (.691 in '22) .689 Alfaro Vs. LHP .732 Alfaro .497 McGuire (.605 in '22) .333 Wong (24 PAs) .967 in minors '22 (78 PAs)

A mirage is a naturally-occurring optical phenomenon in which light rays bend via refraction to produce a displaced image of distant objects or the sky. The word comes to English via the French (se) mirer, from the Latin mirari, meaning "to look at, to wonder at".