moonslav59

This joke is getting old. I do agree: he needs to go. Maybe letting him go makes the TWard decision look even worse. Obviously, Alfaro and Tapia offer more to the 40 and maybe 26 than Ort does.

If Tapia is better on defense, in CF, than Duvall, and Duvall struggles, then it matters, but I'm not sure he is. I don't think Tapia is worse than Duran, Ref or Verdugo in CF. On offense, Duvall turns 35, this year, and it's hard to know if his .677 OPS, last year is a sign he is done, but the guy has had some fairly recent success: 2021: .281 33 113 (Led league in RBI) 2020-2021: .789 OPS (54 HRs and 146 RBI in 764 PAs) 2019-2021: .802 OPS (per 650 PAs: .236 46 120) Tapia was better on offense earlier in his career: .734 up to 2020 (892 PAs) .687 2021-2022 (966 PAs) Defense in CF: They look pretty close to even in CF... Tapia: +3 DRS in 439 innings (-4.4 UZR150) Duvall +4 DRS in 594 innings (+4.7 UZR/150) OF Duvall +58 DRA in 5906 innings (+5.0 UZR/150) Tapia -4 DRS/-2.5 UZR/150 in 3487 innings

We have 21 pitchers on the 40: Keepers: SP: Sale, Whitlock, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton, Bello SP/RP: Houck, Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, Murphy RP: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, JRod, Mills (to 60 day IL?) Nothing all that special: Brasier, Kelly, Bleier Bubble: Ort Maybe add? Sheriff 19 Everyday Players: McGuire Casas Arroyo, EValdez, D Hamilton Devers Kike, Mondesi (IL) Yoshida, Refsnyder Duvall, Rafaela Verdugo, Abreu Turner Nothing all that special: Wong Dalbec Duran Bubble: Chang Maybe add? Alfaro & Tapia

I'm not so sure Sheriff deserves to be added to the 40. i'm thinking Walter is just as good and has more long term upside.

This whole Ort fascination has to end. Cut this guy, NOW!

I'm not sure we replace a pitcher with a pitcher. Alfaro and Tapia seem like bigger needs. It might come down to who they think is the least likely to be claimed: Ort, Chang and _____ . Brasier still remains the enigma. I have to think these guys would be claimed: Dalbec Duran Kelly Murphy Hamilton EValdez Bleier Is there any team out there who might trade a non 40 man roster promising prospect for any of these guys?

Mine: 1. Mayer 2. Bleis 3. Rafaela 4. Mata 5. Romero 6. Anthony 7. Walter 8. Perales 9. Yorke 10. E R-C

Sox prospects.com's top dozen: 1. Mayer 2. Casas 3. Bleis 4. Rafaela 5. Yorke 6. Mata 7. Romero 8. Walter 9. Anthony 10. Perales 11. Paulino 12. Wikelman My top 10 after adding recent graduates (one year back) 1. Mayer 2. Casas 3. Bleis 4. Bello 5. Rafaela 6. Yorke 7. Mata 8. Romero 9. Walter 10. Anthony 11. Perales 12. Crawford/Paulino/Wikelman Go back 2 years: 1. Mayer 2. Whitlock 3. Casas 4. Bleis 5. Houck 6. Bleis 7. Rafaela 8. Yorke 9. Romero 10. Walter 11. Anthony 12. Perales 13. Crawford/Paulino/Wikelman It might also be interesting to see a rankings based on all players at 24 or younger or with 5+ years of team control and at 26 or younger. I'm sure other teams would have some massive talent added to their prospect list by doing this.

Starting the year with Alfaro as the back-up and Wong in AAA makes the most sense, in isolation, but who do we DFA to make room for Alfaro (and Tapia?)

Could Mills or Joely go on the 60 to create a slot? Could Ort's time finally be up? Could a rare late March trade be made? Some teams need a 1Bman (Dalbec) or might want Duran (to make room for Tapia, although our OF depth would not improve in numbers by swapping Tapia for Duran.) Could we trade Wong? I'd really like to see Alfaro and Tapia stick around.

A look at Bloom's prospects and how they were acquired: (Only players still in the system) Rule 5: Whitlock (Ranked 4th in 2021) Ort Draft: 1. Mayer 5. Yorke 7. Romero 9. Anthony 15. Jordan 18. Hickey 19. E Rodrigues-Cruz 20. Kavadas 21. Coffey 22. Drohan 25. Brannon 28. Paez 29. Guerrero 30. McDonough 34. Uberstine 36. Meidroth 47. N Dean 51. W Olds 53. D Rogers 55. H Dobbins 56. D McElveny IFA: 3. Bleis 28. Paez 32. F Encarnacion 45. Ravelo 49. Y Cespedes J Garcia, Polanco, F De Leon, F Arias, Y Ruiz Trade: Winckowski (Beni) was ranked 9th in '22 Wong (Betts) ranked 12th in '20 17. Valdez (Vaz) 24. Abreu (Vaz) 26. DHamilton (Renfroe) 33. Koss (Aybar) 35. Binelas (Renfroe) 38. RHern (Springs & Mazza) 41. Broadway (Diekman) 46. Denlinger (German who was traded for and ranked 25 in '22) 60. Santos (Chatham) MiLFA: 23. Kelly DD's Kids: Bello ranked 3rd in '22 Houck ranked 3rd in '18 Duran ranked 3rd in '21 Dalbec ranked 5th in '20 Crawford ranked 23rd in '22 2. Casas draft 4. Rafaela IFA 6. Mata IFA 8. Walter draft 10. Perales IFA 11. Paulino IFA 12. Wikelman IFA 13. Murphy draft 14. Lugo draft 16. Bonaci IFA 27. Fernandez draft Alcantara, Salazar, Jimenez, Scott, Bastardo, JEncarnacion, Castro, Mosquedo, ELopez

E Valdez with a homer, today. Kluber was not great, but has looked okay, this spring. Kelly gave us a good 2 IP.

To me, Houck can and should fill the Long Man role Whitlock has excelled in over the last 2 years. Expecting us to just stay even, at that slot may be pushing it, since Houck filled that role, at times, too. Maybe Crawford, Wink or a kid helps improve upon our past long men. Asking Schreiber to repeat 2022 may be impossible, but maybe just give us a decent 2023 with 60-75 IP. Jansen, Martin, Bleier and hopefully something useful from Joely & Mills, Crawford or Wink or a kid (Mata, Walter, Murphy) should easily be an improvement over 2022, but pen projections are the biggest crapshoot of all positions in MLB. We look better, on paper, despite the early injuries, and that's all we can hope for, at this point. Maybe my hopes for Kluber are too rosy, but I like his chances at improving on 2022, despite being a year older. Paxton is hard to have any hopes for, but the guy is not a bad pitcher, when healthy. Bello & Whitlock may be more important than Sale. Pivetta just needs to stay steady, but as I've pointed out, before, he has had pretty long in-season stretches looking like a solid #2 or #3, so maybe he can pull a Porcello and put together a 32 start stretch for the ages. 2021: 4.09 over first 17 GS (.717 OPSA) 4.10 FIP 2022: 3.72 over a 22 GS stretch (.675 OPSA) 3.61 FIP

Pitching projections (I am not counting MLB players slotted for rehab assignments on opening day:) AAA SP'ers: Bello will almost certainly get a promotion to MLB at some point. Mata should see ML action in '23. Walter should, too. Murphy might get a look- maybe in the pen. Gudino should not. (Santos on IL) AAA RP'ers Ort may see time Mosqueda may not Shugart, Dermody, Feltman- and others hopefully will not, unless they are doing well. AA SP: Drohan should move up when a AAA SP'er is promoted. Van Belle, Liu, Sharp and Olds do not impress me. RP: Denlinger is the unknown. Zeferjahn, Webb and Cellucci may move up to AAA. A+ SP: Wikelman & Uberstine (to AA?) Angel Bastardo and Juan Encarnacion (maybe?) Dobbins & Gambrell (Beni trade) are long shots RP: Guerrero is promising A- SP: Perales and E R-C could certainly move to A+ or even AA by season's end. Paez and Rogers might be promoted. RP: Hoppe & Sena (who knows?) Note: I am far from an expert on prospect evaluation. These are just my opinions.

Not unrealistic. Soxprospects.com projects this opening day AAA roster: C Alfaro 1B Palka 2B Valdez 3B Koss SS Hamilton LF Duran CF Rafaela RF Crook DH Fitzy Bench: C: CHamilton & RHern IF: Goodrum & Diaz OF: Allen, Wilson UT: Sogard AA (I can see Kavadas, Abreu, Yorke and Lugo moving up to AAA in 2023.) C: Scott, Marrero, Erro 1B: Kavadas 2B: Yorke 3B: Lugo SS: McDonough, Max Ferguson LF: Jimenez, Dearden CF: Sikes RF: Abreu, Rosier DH: Binelas A+ (I can see all of these first 5 names moving up a level or more in 2023.) C: Hickey 1B: Jordan 2B: Paulino 3B: Bonaci SS: Mayer LF: BGonzalez CF: E Lopez RF: Uguedo DH: Meidroth A- and FCL every day prospects to watch: C: McElveny & B Brannon 3B: Coffey & FEncarnacion SS Ravelo CF: Bleis RF: Anthony I doubt all these guys move up to AAA in 2023, but if they do, who on the AAA roster gets promoted to MLB, traded, DFA'd or demoted? Kavadas (Palka or CHam/RHern?) Abreu (Allen or Wilson?) Yorke (Diaz of Goodrum?) Lugo (Goodrum or Diaz?) Mayer (Koss?)

Well reasoned. Those 5 are huge. We might need all 5 to do well to have a good chance, this year, and usually hoping for 5 for 5 is a fool's errand. I will say that if 1-2 just do decent, while the other 3-4 do very well, we do have a long list of others who can easily step up and fill the void(s.) Some maybe be long shots, but several are not: Bello: might be #6 on your list. Story: how much time does he miss? How long will it take for him to find his groove, if ever? Kike: can we hope for something like 2021? Kluber: does he have one more good year in that golden arm? Turner: was one of the best second half hitters in MLB, last year. Duvall: is not far removed from leading the league in RBI. Arroyo & Mondesi: has shown they can play well, when healthy. McGuire & Wong/Alfaro: not a long shot they can outperform Vaz/Plawecki Martin & others: can improve the pen, greatly. Paxton, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, Wink and some kids offer hopes for more than just filling some rotation slots.

My "for fun" one had Alabama winning and Arkansas advancing to the elite 8.

I think it would be useful to see rankings that include all prospects as well as graduated prospects within the last 365 days. Many teams have some quality recent grads, so I'm not sure our recent grads of Bello, Crawford, Wink, Duran, Wong and Ort would help us leapfrog more teams that who leapfrog us, but I'd like to see. If you go back 2 years, we'd add Dalbec, Whitlock & Houck, but before that we have only Devers (2017 graduation.)

To me, for several of these players, it's more about their 2023 OBP than HRs. Of all our hitters in 2022 with 180+ PAs only one had an OBP above the .358 mark set by Devers (Bogey at .377.) Out of our top 13 hitters by PA (0ver 180 PAs) 7 had OBPs of .303 or worse. 10 of 13 were at .328 or less (JD was at .341.) Yoshida is front and center. I'm hopeful he can get over .400 and even .420 is not out of the question. Turner (.366 career, .350 in 2022 and .420 over his last 250 PAs of '22) Casas is a big unknown, but our 1B OBP was .302, last year, so there is hope for massive improvement, here. Casas had a .358 OBP in 95 PAs in '22 and is looking great in ST'ing. His minor league OBP is .374 (.382 in AAA.) I don't think .350+ is unrealistic. Verdugo could improve on .328 in 2022. He's a career .341 batter & .355 from '20-'21) Kike could improve on .291 in 2022. Career .314 is not great but better than .291. He had a .337 OBP in '21 and .322 from 2018-2021. Devers might improve on .358, but he was one of the very few Sox hitters who had a higher 2022 OBP than career OBP. His highest career OBP was .361 in 2019, so hoping for better is a stretch. Duvall's .289 OPB leads me to think we need HRs from him. Some 2022 OBP numbers to ponder: .257 JBJ in 290 PAs .283 Duran 223 .283 Dalbec 353 .287 Plawecki 175 .291 Kike 402 .298 Pham 235 .300 Cordero 275 Guys like Arroyo, McGuire, Ref, Tapia and others may make a mark, but it's hard to know.

Wow! What a messed up bracket! 6 v 5 in the south 9 v 3 in the east 5 v 2 in the midwest 4 v 3 in the west We almost saw a 15 seed (Princeton) go to the final 8. Only one #1 or #2 seed still alive (Texas.) Four teams at #5 seed or worse are still alive.

Soxprospects has both Sheriff and Tapia making the 26, although neither are on the 40. They also have Alfaro in AAA, but he can bolt, if he is not added to the 40, so something has to give, for any of these things to happen. The bottom 4 on the 13 man staff are Crawford, Winckowski, Kelly and Sherriff Possible 40 man roster replacements for Sheriff or others: Mata, Walter, Ort Will start on IL: JRod, Mills, Bello, Paxton, Whitlock The bottom 4 on the everyday player list: Wong, Chang, Refsnyder, Tapia Possible replacements: Wong> Alfaro (if added to 40) Chang> Valdez, Hamilton (not going to happen) Refsnyder> Duran, Rafaela (not going to happen) Tapia> Duran, Rafaela, Dalbec 60 Day IL: Story Starts season on IL: Mondesi If we add 1-3 from Tapia, Alfaro and Sheriff, who gets DFA'd or placed on the 60 day IL? JRod to 60? Mills to 60? Trade someone? Dalbec, Brasier, Ort, Murphy, Hamilton, Valdez? DFA?

It sure seems this way. That's why I said "I'd DFA..." and not "He might be...)

Hope it's just one rehab start, and he joins the rotation for the Sox on the second turn.

He's .855 vs LHPs (.696 v R), but that is the short end of a platoon, and how many teams platoon 1B, anyway? How valuable is a short side DH platoon? Now, .696 leaves some room to get to a decent level, but he's not young, either. To me, 1B like him are a dime a dozen and easily picked up off waivers or via trades with minimal return. I'd still DFA Ort before him, but I'd rather have Tapi and Alfaro on the 40 than Bobby Dee.

I'm wondering if he might be a rare late ST'ing trade candidate, so we can make room for Tapia and Alfaro- both who seem more needed than a poor fielding 1Bman. I know, I know: selling low is a no-no.